Offender-focused police intervention in residential burglary and theft from vehicle hot spots: a partially blocked randomized control trial

Santos, Rachel Boba; Santos, Roberto G.

doi:10.1007/s11292-016-9268-9

Cited by 18 publications

(26 citation statements)

References 41 publications

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“…1 Some of the most prominent experimental studies in criminology are in Minneapolis, MN; Sherman and Weisburd (1995) in Minneapolis, MN; Weisburd and Green (1995) in Jersey City, NJ; in Kansas City, KS; Braga et al (1999) in Jersey City, NJ; Mazerolle et al (2000) in Oakland, CA; Braga and Bond (2008) in Lowell, MA; Taylor et al (2011) in Jacksonville, FL; Ratcliffe et al (2011) in Philadelphia, PA; Groff et al (2015) in Philadelphia, PA; and Santos and Santos (2016) in Port St. Lucie, FL. There is also non-experimental evidence on hot spots policing in the criminology literature as Sviridoff et al (1992) in New York, NY; Cohen et al (2003) in Pittsburgh, PA; and Lawton et al (2005) in Philadelphia, PA. Studies on police and crime in the economics literature include Di Tella and Schargrodsky (2004) in Buenos Aires, Argentina; and Draca et al (2011) in London, U.K.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Hot spots policing in a high-crime environment: an experimental evaluation in Medellín

et al. 2020

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Objectives: Test direct, spillover and aggregate effects of hot spots policing on crime in a high crime environment. Methods: We identified 967 hot spot street segments and randomly assigned 384 to a six-months increase in police patrols. To account for the complications resulting from a large experimental sample in a dense network of streets, we use randomization inference for hypothesis testing. We also use non-experimental streets to test for spillovers onto non-hot spots, and examine aggregate effects citywide. Results: Our results show an improvement in short term security perceptions and a reduction in car thefts, but no direct effects on other crimes or satisfaction with policing services. We see larger effects in the least secure places, especially for short term security perceptions, car thefts and assaults. We find no evidence of crime displacement but rather a decrease in car thefts in nearby hot spots and a decrease in assaults in nearby non-hot spots. We estimate that car thefts decreased citywide by about 11 percent. Conclusions: Our study highlights the importance of context when implementing hot spots policing. What seems to work in the U.S. or even in Bogotá is not as responsive in Medellín (and vice versa). Further research-especially outside the U.S.-is needed to understand the role of local crime patterns and police capacity on the effectiveness of hot spots policing. JEL codes: K42, O17, E26, J48, C93.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Hot spots policing in a high-crime environment: an experimental evaluation in Medellín

et al. 2020

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“…The findings that arrests reduce near repeats within the range of 20 to 40 percent should also be taken in light of evidence of the mixed findings of target hardening approaches (Groff & Taniguchi, 2019;Stokes & Clare, 2019). It is also true that traditional police responses, such as increased patrol or street stops, may be a mechanism for police to reduce near repeat crime events (Santos & Santos 2015c;Santos & Santos, 2016;Wooditch & Weisburd, 2016). While individuals typically have positive perceptions of police undertaking such target hardening responses to burglaries (Antrobus & Pilotto, 2016;Groff & Taniguchi, 2019), the lack of consistent evidence showing crime reduction effects undermines their overall utility.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Micro-time hot spots effectively represent near repeat patterns. Four studies demonstrated the effectiveness of directed police patrols in reducing residential burglaries and thefts from motor vehicles (Santos & Santos, 2016). Immediate, directed patrol and increases in police response reduced residential burglaries and thefts from motor vehicles in micro-time hotspots (Santos & Santos, 2015a;Santos & Santos, 2015b;Santos & Santos, 2015c).…”

Section: Crime Prevention Based On Near Repeatsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The fact that crimes cluster in short space time windows, near repeats, is a well established criminological finding for many different types of crimes (Johnson et al, 2007;Ratcliffe & Rengert, 2008;Youstin et al, 2011). But, policing strategies to reduce the probability of near repeat crimes are much more variable in their effectiveness (Elffers et al, 2018;Groff & Taniguchi, 2019;Santos & Santos, 2016;Stokes & Clare, 2019). Here we focus on if arresting individuals reduces the probability of a near repeat crime.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Breaking the chain: How arrests reduce the probability of near repeat crimes

Wheeler¹,

Riddell²,

Haberman³

2019

Preprint

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Objectives: Near repeat patterns have been identified for a host of different crimes, but effective strategies to reduce near repeats have had more variable results. This study identifies near repeat crime patterns in Dallas, Texas and examines the effects of an arrest on reducing the probability of future crime. Method: Using open source crime data from the Dallas Police Department from July 2014 through June 2018, we identified near repeat patterns for shootings, interpersonal robberies, residential burglaries, and thefts from motor vehicles. Logistic regression models were used to test the effect of an arrest on reducing near repeat crimes; controls for geographic, demographic, and temporal factors were included in each model. Results: Near repeat calculations suggest violent crime clustered closely in time and space, with property crime dispersed over larger spatial and temporal dimensions. Across all four crime types, findings suggest arrests resulted in 20% to 40% reductions in a near repeat follow up crime.Conclusions: In line with past research on shootings, arrests reduced the likelihood of subsequent crimes. This suggests policing strategies to increase arrests may be a fruitful way to reduce near repeat crime patterns.Code to replicate the analysis can be found at:https://www.dropbox.com/sh/72q0i7wm60ndqve/AABgFB8zwGHG6xjExvaD01EGa?dl=0.

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“…This strategy is based on research suggesting that a small percentage of offenders are responsible for the majority of the crimes committed, meaning these offenders have a substantial impact on the crime rate (Groff et al ; Wolfgang et al ). While some studies have found a significant impact of focused deterrence strategies on crime reduction (Braga and Weisburd ; Groff et al ), others still report a limited effect of offender‐focused interventions (e.g., Santos and Santos ).…”

Section: Contemporary Developments In Policingmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Extent and Correlates of Public Support for Deterrence Reforms and Hot Spots Policing

Metcalfe¹,

Pickett²

2018

Law Soc Rev

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As one approach to prison downsizing and criminal justice reform, scholars recommend altering the nature of policing by reallocating resources toward policing and increasing sentinel patrols and hot spots interventions. Public attitudes toward these reforms are unknown. In the current police crisis, shifting policies in ways disfavored by the public can impact police‐community relations, especially among those disproportionately affected. The current study uses survey data from a nationally representative sample of Americans to evaluate whether the public is receptive to the suggested reforms. Our results indicate that the majority of the general public believes policing is more cost‐effective than incarceration and supports a focus on sentinel patrols and crime hot spots, although there is less support for hot spots policing among blacks, Hispanics, and lower income individuals. The hot spots policing strategy most preferred is situational prevention, and the least supported is aggressive order‐maintenance policing.

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Offender-focused police intervention in residential burglary and theft from vehicle hot spots: a partially blocked randomized control trial

Cited by 18 publications

References 41 publications

Hot spots policing in a high-crime environment: an experimental evaluation in Medellín

Hot spots policing in a high-crime environment: an experimental evaluation in Medellín

Breaking the chain: How arrests reduce the probability of near repeat crimes

The Extent and Correlates of Public Support for Deterrence Reforms and Hot Spots Policing

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