Offender Types and Public Policy

Chaiken, Marcia R.; Chaiken, Jan M.

doi:10.1177/0011128784030002003

Cited by 119 publications

(30 citation statements)

References 7 publications

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“…This population state is not data-validated, as no data source exists for doing so. 14 11 Chaiken and Chaiken's (1984) interpretations of the Rand data are occasionally contradictory and confusing. At times, they indicate a belief that there is a life-course progression of seriousness on the part of offenders (pp.…”

Section: Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Using simulation modeling to evaluate sentencing reform in California: choosing the future

Auerhahn

2008

J Exp Criminol

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Criminal sentencing reforms that have as their ostensible goal the protection of the public through the mechanism of selective incapacitation have proliferated in recent years. The most prominent of these types of reforms are the "Three Strikes" laws. Because these changes to sentencing policy work by extending the term of incarceration for affected offenders, rather than by changing the rate of incarceration, many years must pass before the effects of these kinds of changes can be measured and evaluated by conventional statistical methods. Data-validated dynamic systems simulation modeling offers the analyst an opportunity to evaluate prospectively the effects of such changes on prison populations. In addition to providing descriptive and evaluative information about the likely consequences of these reforms to the compositional dynamics of prison populations, dynamic systems simulation modeling also affords the analyst the opportunity to experiment upon the system to examine prospectively the likely effects of policy changes. In this paper, simulation models of the California criminal justice system are created and validated with historical data in order to provide a plausible baseline upon which to base future projections. Different policy scenarios are simulated to the year 2030 to assess experimentally the likely consequences to prison populations and to evaluate how well these policies target the "dangerous offenders" proponents that these policies promise to remove from society via incarceration.We need to move away from the fragmentary studies of individual agencies and toward more comprehensive assessment of how... justice agencies influence one another and together influence crime. Decisions made in one justice agency have dramatic workload and cost implications for other justice agencies and for later decisions... To date, these systemic effects have not been well studied, and J Exp Criminol (

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Section: Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Using simulation modeling to evaluate sentencing reform in California: choosing the future

Auerhahn

2008

J Exp Criminol

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“…The RAND Survey of California Prison Inmates is one of the few survey instruments that contains an array of important criminological variables and has been administered to multiple samples of offenders (Chaiken & Chaiken, 1984;Peterson, Braiker, & Polich, 1981;Peterson, Polich, & Chaiken, 1977). Drawing on the original study and a replication, the current research purpose was to examine a theoretical model with an eye toward confirming findings and exploring differences across samples.…”

Section: Research Purposementioning

confidence: 99%

Toward an Integrated Model of Offending Frequency: A Replication Study

Hochstetler¹,

DeLisi²,

Puhrmann³

2007

Justice Quarterly

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Criminology is limited by a paucity of replication studies. As such, the measurement of key concepts and the empirical support for theory is open to skepticism. Drawing on the RAND Survey of Inmates and a replication of it, the current study developed an integrated model of offending frequency that contained measures from the rational choice, criminal identity, and criminal careers literatures. A confirmatory structural equation model revealed that criminal self-concept partially mediated the effects of background risk factors. Perceived costs of crime had no significant effect. Perceived benefits of crime were directly and indirectly (through criminal identity) related to offending frequency. However, differences in measures and variance across data sets contributed to discrepant model fit. This attests to the importance and increasing need for precise replication in criminological research.

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“…Certains prônent l'identification précoce des enfants à risque et l'intervention préventive (e.g. Chaiken et Chaiken, 1984). D'autres s'y opposent, craignant que les prophéties créatrices transforment des enfants innocents en criminels (Lemert, 1951;Tannenbaum, 1938).…”

Section: L'identification Des Groupes à Risquesunclassified

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Loeber¹,

Stouthamer‐Loeber²

2005

crimino

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The paper presents the results of a meta-analysis to analyze which predictors of delinquency in males and females are consistently evident from longitudinal studies, and how the predictors compare in their predictive efficiency. The results show that a variety of conduct problems but also conditions within the family are predictive of later delinquency in general, recidivism, or serious offenses. As a rule, composite indicators of risk factors outperformed single indicators. Data is presented on the early identification of chronic offenders. The results are critically examined in terms of error rates, and in terms of future directions for research

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Offender Types and Public Policy

Cited by 119 publications

References 7 publications

Using simulation modeling to evaluate sentencing reform in California: choosing the future

Using simulation modeling to evaluate sentencing reform in California: choosing the future

Toward an Integrated Model of Offending Frequency: A Replication Study

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