Offline crime bounces back to pre-COVID levels, cyber stays high: interrupted time-series analysis in Northern Ireland

Abstract

Much research has shown that the first lockdowns imposed in response to the COVID-19 pandemic were associated with changes in routine activities and, therefore, changes in crime. While several types of violent and property crime decreased immediately after the first lockdown, online crime rates increased. Nevertheless, little research has explored the relationship between multiple lockdowns and crime in the mid-term. Furthermore, few studies have analysed potentially contrasting trends in offline and online crimes using the same dataset. To fill these gaps in research, the present article employs interrupted time-series analysis to examine the effects on offline and online crime of the three lockdown orders implemented in Northern Ireland. We analyse crime data recorded by the police between April 2015 and May 2021. Results show that many types of traditional offline crime decreased after the lockdowns but that they subsequently bounced back to pre-pandemic levels. In contrast, results appear to indicate that cyber-enabled fraud and cyber-dependent crime rose alongside lockdown-induced changes in online habits and remained higher than before COVID-19. It is likely that the pandemic accelerated the long-term upward trend in online crime. We also find that lockdowns with stay-at-home orders had a clearer impact on crime than those without. Our results contribute to understanding how responses to pandemics can influence crime trends in the mid-term as well as helping identify the potential long-term effects of the pandemic on crime, which can strengthen the evidence base for policy and practice.

The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Practice of Forensic Medicine: An Overview

“…Several types of scams and fraud have been reported: cybercriminals are capitalizing on the anxieties and fears triggered by the pandemic, using malware, such as viruses, worms, trojan horses, ransomware, and spyware, to invade, damage, steal or delete personal data on personal computers. In addition to these types of online scams, there has been a surge in fake or inappropriate drugs and vaccines and medical equipment sold at a very high price [ 28 , 29 ]. Moreover, social isolation and decreased mobility combined with COVID-19 containment policies have inevitably increased stress levels, reducing access to social support services and increasing crime such as child abuse, domestic violence and substance abuse [ 30 , 31 , 32 , 33 ].…”

Empirical evidence of the impact of mobility on property crimes during the first two waves of the COVID-19 pandemic

“…Notably, the second national lockdown imposed in England was less pronounced in reducing crime than the earlier lockdown (Farrell and Dixon 2021 ). Meanwhile, in Ireland, Buil-Gil and others ( 2021 ) observed that traditional offences like burglary, theft and violent and sexual crimes decreased during lockdowns but rebounded to pre-lockdown levels during post-lockdown (Post-L) periods. On the other hand, cybercrime in the Post-L period was higher than pre-COVID-19 levels (Buil-Gil et al, 2021 ).…”

COVID-19 restrictions, pub closures, and crime in Oslo, Norway

“…The research on crime and COVID-19 in addition notes certain types of crime for which the pandemic appears to have led to more crime. This is true for domestic violence (Ivandic et al, 2020;Nesset et al, 2021;Piquero et al, 2021) and cybercrime (Buil-Gil et al, 2021b, 2021a. Increases in these crimes are expected due to changes in routine activities, as people spend more time at home, which could increase domestic violence, and online activity, which could increase cybercrime (Esiner & Nivette, 2020;Buil-Gil et al, 2021b).…”

“…Few changes to the social environment have been so quick and dramatic as those brought about by the COVID-19 pandemic which has led to nearly 6300000 deaths across the world since 2020 (Dong et al, 2020). 1 Just two years after the pandemic struck the world, there are already dozens of studies on its impact on crime (some examples covering different parts of the world and crime types include Ashby, 2020a;Buil-Gil et al, 2021a;Campedelli et al, 2020;Ceccato et al, 2022;Estévez-Soto, 2021;J. H. Boman & Gallupe, 2020;Mohler et al, 2020;Nivette et al, 2021;Payne et al, 2021;Piquero et al, 2021).…”