Oil price shocks and global imbalances: Lessons from a model with trade and financial interdependencies

Allégret, Jean-Pierre; Mignon, Valérie; Sallenave, Audrey

doi:10.1016/j.econmod.2015.04.009

Cited by 74 publications

(37 citation statements)

References 51 publications

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“…By contrast, we model these flows via a drop in China's relative price resulting from oil price shocks. Another related paper is Allegret et al (2014), which investigates oil price shocks' effects and their associated transmission channels on global imbalances. They find that associated with oil price shocks, there is a transfer of wealth from oil-importing countries to oil-exporting ones.…”

Section: Related Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Influence of Oil Price Shocks on China's Macroeconomy: A Perspective of International Trade

Chen

Härdle

2014

SSRN Journal

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Section: Related Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Influence of Oil Price Shocks on China's Macroeconomy: A Perspective of International Trade

Chen

Härdle

2014

SSRN Journal

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“…As the demand on energy always maintains the tendency of a strong increase, as a strategic resource as well as a financial product, the price of oil will certainly be impacted by many comprehensive factors [14][15][16]. On the one hand, the marketization degree of the price of oil and coal has been very high in China, and was basically geared to international standards.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of International Oil Price on Energy Conservation and Emission Reduction in China

et al. 2016

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Abstract:In the context of "new normal" economy and frequent "haze", the strategy of energy conservation and emission reduction aiming to lower costs and reduce pollution is currently still a major strategic direction in China and the world, and will remain so for some time in the future. This paper uses the annual data of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price in 1987-2014 as samples. We firstly present the direction and mechanism of the influence of oil price change on total consumption of every kind of energy by path analysis, and then consider establishing a Structural Vector Autoregression model of energy conservation and emission reduction in three statuses. Research shows that if the international oil price increases by 1%, the energy consumption per GDP and carbon dioxide emission increase by 0.092% and 0.053% respectively in the corresponding period. In the status of high energy consumption and high emission, if the international oil price increases by 1%, the energy consumption per GDP and carbon dioxide emission increase by 0.043% and 0.065% respectively in the corresponding period. In the status of low energy consumption and low emission, if the international oil price increases by 1%, the energy consumption per GDP per unit increases by 0.067% and carbon dioxide emission decreases by 0.085% in the corresponding period.

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“…Since the seminal work by Backus and Crucinic (2000), another body of the literature has recently been growing that recognizes the importance of oil price fluctuations when assessing the macroeconomic impacts on the balance of trade (e.g., Allegret et al, 2015;Killian, Rubucci, & Spatafora, 2009;Rafiq et al, 2016). By adopting a dynamic general equilibrium model to eight OECD countries, for example, Backus and Crucinic (2000)) reveal that oil price shocks explain a substantial variation in terms of trade.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Do oil price changes really matter to the trade balance? Evidence from Korea‐ASEAN commodity trade data

Baek

2020

Australian Economic Papers

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The contribution of this article is to assess the effect of oil prices have on the trade balance in the framework of bilateral commodity trade data between Korea and each of the four ASEAN member countries—Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand. To examine this subject thoroughly, we first assume the effects of oil price changes to be symmetric and apply the linear autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) method to the subject. We find that the price of crude oil indeed has an important role in affecting Korea's trade balance with those four ASEAN economies in both the long‐ and short‐run. We then separate oil price hikes from oil price plunges and implement the nonlinear ARDL method to reveal that there is evidence that changes in oil prices appear to have asymmetric effects on the trade balance for certain products in the long‐ and short‐run.

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Oil price shocks and global imbalances: Lessons from a model with trade and financial interdependencies

Cited by 74 publications

References 51 publications

The Influence of Oil Price Shocks on China's Macroeconomy: A Perspective of International Trade

The Influence of Oil Price Shocks on China's Macroeconomy: A Perspective of International Trade

Impact of International Oil Price on Energy Conservation and Emission Reduction in China

Do oil price changes really matter to the trade balance? Evidence from Korea‐ASEAN commodity trade data

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