Oil price shocks, exchange rate and macroeconomic fluctuations in a small oil-exporting economy

Yıldırım, Zekeriya; Arifli, Arif

doi:10.1016/j.energy.2020.119527

Cited by 67 publications

(29 citation statements)

References 58 publications

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“…The results indicate that the impacts of OX on TB have a different dimension below and above the threshold. The results are in agreement with previous studies (Qasim et al, 2021 andYildirim andArifli, 2021). In general, both the impacts of OX are positively related to trade.…”

Section: Threshold Effect Of Oil Price and Oil Export On Trade Balancesupporting

confidence: 93%

“…An increase in world oil prices in oil-exporting countries improve the TB and hence higher current account surplus (Adebiyi et al, 2010). For instance, Yildirim and Arifli (2021) find that oil price shocks adversely impact on a small oil-exporting economy. They found that decline in OP deteriorates TB, increases inflation, causes a currency depreciation and falls economic activity.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Threshold Effects of Oil Price and Oil Export on Trade Balance in Africa

2022

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The impact of various macroeconomics variables on trade deficit has been studied in large OPEC (e.g., United Arab Emirates and Kingdom of Saudi Arabia); however other African countries are still needed to be studied. This study uses the transmission oil price (OP) changes to various economic sectors to examine the threshold effects of OP and oil export on trade balance in African OPEC members (Algeria, Angola, Libya and Nigeria). This study applied Pedroni cointegration test to establish the cointegration relationship among different macroeconomics variables by using three different proxies of OP. The dynamic panel models were used to examine the long-run impact of OP changes and threshold analysis. The study found that increase in OP and oil export positively encouraged import while exchange rate depreciation is significantly discouraged import. The study found that the threshold effect of oil export on the trade balance, when oil export is above a certain threshold, the impact is higher than below threshold. The aforementioned countries have to take into account that there is a threshold level and can increase oil export to improve the trade balance.

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Section: Threshold Effect Of Oil Price and Oil Export On Trade Balancesupporting

confidence: 93%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Threshold Effects of Oil Price and Oil Export on Trade Balance in Africa

2022

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“…The tendencies of the modern development of the country's national economy have a detrimental effect on the population's standard of living. As evidenced by the results of many studies in the current conditions in the coming decades, even without taking into account the destructive impact of the pandemic, it will not be possible to achieve the standard of living that was experienced, for example, in 2008-2014(Baku Research Institute, 2020Yildirim & Arifli, 2021). Because of this, the strategy for supporting the national economy should be based on the conceptual approach of comparative advantage, implying that economic diversification should ensure the priority development of the most profitable sectors of the economy and rapidly expanding industries.…”

Section: Agricultural Development As a Factor In Economic Diversificationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Scenario approach to agricultural development in Azerbaijan

Hajiyeva

2021

JEECAR

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The purpose of this paper is to substantiate the optimal scenario to develop agriculture for the effective diversification of the Azerbaijani economy. By constructing an intersectoral balance model and using regression analysis, we propose the approach for determining optimal agriculture development scenarios taking into account the current development trends of the industry: innovative, inertial, and balanced. Using the balance model helps to account for the cause-and-effect relationships between the indicators of the development of all sectors of the Azerbaijani economy and comprehensively assess the impact of agricultural development on the diversification of the national economy. In contrast to the classical balance model, the modified model proposed in our article provides possibilities to assess not just the production potential of industries but also their contribution to the formation of the country's GDP and diversification of the economy on the way to neutralizing oil dependence.

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“…Empirical literature on this subject matter is scarce with most beaming searchlight on non-oil exports and economic growth (e.g., Nwodo and Asogwa 2017;Waheed et al 2020;Adeosun and Gbadamosi 2021). Other related studies either examined the nexus between exchange rate and economic growth (see Alagidede and Ibrahim 2017;Ribeiro et al 2020;Hoang et al 2020) or the relationship between exchange rate and crude oil export (see Lv et al 2018;Singhal et al 2019;Yildirim and Arifli 2021). However, this present did not only analyse the link between exchange rate movement and non-oil export, but also expands the discussion by decomposing the non-oil exports into agriculture and manufactured exports.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 98%

Do fluctuations in exchange rate hinder non-oil export? An analysis of agriculture and manufacturing in Nigeria

2021

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This study examines the effect of exchange rate fluctuation on non-oil export by focusing on both manufactured exports and agriculture exports in Nigeria between 1970 and 2019. The study employs the vector error correction framework, the impulse response and variance decomposition analyses to analyse data on agriculture exports, manufacturing exports, exchange rate, interest rate, and inflation rate. Findings suggest that long run relationship exists among the variables. The vector error correction analysis reveals that exchange rate depreciation positively impacts agriculture exports but negatively impacts manufacturing exports in Nigeria. However, both the impulse response and variance decomposition analyses confirm that exchange rate fluctuation has a higher significance on manufacturing exports than agriculture exports by accounting for the largest forecast error variance in manufacturing exports than in agriculture exports over the forecast horizon. We conclude that fluctuations in exchange rate significantly impact the non-oil exports in Nigeria. Hence, to enhance the non-oil exports, government could consider enhancing the local capacity to produce for exports by reducing tariffs for manufactured inputs. They can also set up modular mechanised farms for agriculture graduates and farmers to boost agriculture exports and stabilize the exchange rate.

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Oil price shocks, exchange rate and macroeconomic fluctuations in a small oil-exporting economy

Cited by 67 publications

References 58 publications

Threshold Effects of Oil Price and Oil Export on Trade Balance in Africa

Threshold Effects of Oil Price and Oil Export on Trade Balance in Africa

Scenario approach to agricultural development in Azerbaijan

Do fluctuations in exchange rate hinder non-oil export? An analysis of agriculture and manufacturing in Nigeria

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