Oil prices and the South African economy: A macro–meso–micro analysis

Fofana, Ismaël; Chitiga, Margaret; Mabugu, Ramos

doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2009.08.030

Cited by 39 publications

(22 citation statements)

References 4 publications

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“…60 An MS-IO study examined the distributional impact of increased oil prices in South Africa. 61 An increase in heating fuels is shown to be regressive and affects the poor most severely. Increased prices in transportation fuels affect higher income groups and have less regressive effects.…”

Section: Detailed Results For Developing Countriesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…If fuels used for space heating are taxed, this will usually result in considerable negative distributional effects. 61,62 Similar to the case of developed countries, taxation of fuels used for transportation show less negative distributional effects. A study from Costa-Rica found that distributional effects of transportation fuels might even differ dependent on which fuel is taxed.…”

Section: The Case Of Emerging Economies and Developing Countriesmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Social Implications of Green Growth Policies from the Perspective of Energy Sector Reform and its Impact on Households

Heindl,

LLschel

2015

SSRN Journal

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Die Dis cus si on Pape rs die nen einer mög lichst schnel len Ver brei tung von neue ren For schungs arbei ten des ZEW. Die Bei trä ge lie gen in allei ni ger Ver ant wor tung der Auto ren und stel len nicht not wen di ger wei se die Mei nung des ZEW dar.Dis cus si on Papers are inten ded to make results of ZEW research prompt ly avai la ble to other eco no mists in order to encou ra ge dis cus si on and sug gesti ons for revi si ons. The aut hors are sole ly respon si ble for the con tents which do not neces sa ri ly repre sent the opi ni on of the ZEW. Social Implications of Green Growth Policies from the Perspective of Energy Sector Reform and its Impact on Households Andreas Löschel University of Münster February 2015 This paper is also available as: OECD Issue Note -Social Implications of Green Growth Policies from the Perspective of Energy Sector Reform and its Impact on Households-AbstractThis paper reviews the literature on distributional effects of energy and carbon taxation with focus on microsimulation models. Most studies find that direct energy and carbon taxation tends to be regressive. Regressive effects occur mostly with respect to taxation of electricity or space heating. Taxation of transportation fuels show less regressive, neutral, or even progressive effects. Adequate revenue recycling often allows for neutralisation or full elimination of regressive effects so that energy and carbon tax reforms can be progressive. Some studies find evidence for the existence of a double dividend. There seems to be an efficiency-equity trade-off in revenue recycling, i.e. whether to foster growth or to assist low-income households. While a large number of studies on advanced economies are available, there clearly is a gap with regard to evidence for developing countries. Another gap relates to the lack of documentation on the challenges of incorporating macroeconomic models and long-term modelling perspectives in microsimulation. Both aspects can be of great importance with respect to the design of green growth policies. Thoughtful incorporation of social considerations, including aspects of poverty in modelling approaches could enhance the existing instruments of exante policy assessments since poverty is a tangible concept which is well-known, understandable, and openly observable for citizens and policy makers.

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Section: Detailed Results For Developing Countriesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: The Case Of Emerging Economies and Developing Countriesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Social Implications of Green Growth Policies from the Perspective of Energy Sector Reform and its Impact on Households

Heindl,

LLschel

2015

SSRN Journal

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“…Fofana, Mabugu and Chitiga (2007;2008) find that oil price increases have a negative impact on the South African economy given its dependency on imported oil. Nkomo (2006a;2006b), establishes that oil price shocks tend to increase the total import bill for a country, largely because of the huge increase in the cost of oil and petroleum products.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The impact of oil shocks on the South African economy

Chisadza

Dlamini

Gupta

et al. 2016

Energy Sources, Part B: Economics, Planning, and Policy

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The recent increases in oil prices have raised the importance of studying the effects of oil supply and demand shocks on an economy. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of the oil supply and demand shocks on the South African economy using a sign restriction-based structural Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model. Our results show that an oil supply shock has a short-lived significant impact only on the inflation rate, while the impact on the other variables is statistically insignificant. Supply disruptions result in a short-term increase in the domestic inflation rate with no reaction from the monetary policy. An aggregate demand shock results in short-to medium-term improvements in domestic output and the real exchange rate. The effect is statistically insignificant for the inflation rate as well as the monetary policy instrument. The inflation rate and the real exchange rate react negatively to an oil-specific demand shock, while output is positively related to unanticipated changes in oil price due to speculations. Our results highlight the importance of understanding the source of the oil price movements, since an oil price increase necessarily does not imply a negative effect on the economy. JEL classifications: E13, E63, E66

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“…Bellamy (2006) also attempted a similar study using a VAR framework and he …nds that the gold price played a signi…cant role in controlling the negative e¤ects from increasing oil prices. Furthermore, Fofana, et al (2007;2008), Nkomo (2006a2006b), andWakeford (2006) also analysed the South African economy and they contend that rising oil prices adversely impact on country's economic performance through various activities such as a surge in total import bill, contraction in exports, acceleration in in ‡ation and domestic interest rates.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Oil price uncertainty and manufacturing production

et al. 2014

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Given the rapid rise and volatility of oil prices, the paper investigates the e¤ect of oil price uncertainty on the South African manufacturing production using monthly observations covering the period 1974:02 to 2012:12. In addition, we quantify the responses of manufacturing production to positive and negative oil price shocks. We examine the dynamic relationship using a bivariate GARCH-in-mean VAR simultaneously estimated with a full information maximum likelihood technique. The conditional standard deviation of the forecast of the growth of US crude oil imported acquisition cost by re…ners is used as a measure of oil price uncertainty. Our results show that oil price uncertainty negatively and signi…cantly impacts on South Africa's manufacturing production. We also …nd that the responses of manufacturing production to positive and negative shocks are asymmetric.JEL codes: C32, D24, E23, E32

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Oil prices and the South African economy: A macro–meso–micro analysis

Cited by 39 publications

References 4 publications

Social Implications of Green Growth Policies from the Perspective of Energy Sector Reform and its Impact on Households

Social Implications of Green Growth Policies from the Perspective of Energy Sector Reform and its Impact on Households

The impact of oil shocks on the South African economy

Oil price uncertainty and manufacturing production

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