Oil spill hazard and risk assessment for the shorelines of a Mediterranean coastal archipelago

Towards a common oil spill risk assessment framework – Adapting ISO 31000 and addressing uncertainties

“…Variations in the oil spill risk have been identified by previous studies as being due to, for instance, sea conditions (Eide et al, 2007;Balmat et al, 2009), and maritime traffic distributions (Olita et al, 2012). In our framework, the risk was considered as a dynamic index, in which short-term spatial and temporal variations were tackled including the element "Variables modulating the oil spill hazard and impacts and how they will be measured" (28), which may include, for instance, changes in meteo-oceanographic conditions and their respective impacts on oil trajectories and accident probabilities, or seasonality in maritime traffic.…”

“…The Risk of Vessel Accidents and Spills in the Aleutian Islands (Transportation Research Board, 2008), B, is the compilation of guidelines and insights for a future risk assessment in the archipelago. Two studies, Olita et al (2012), hereafter C, and BOEM (2012) (in association with Price et al (2003Price et al ( , 2004), D, were included because of their innovative methods to compute the oil spill hazard. Transport Canada (2007), E, provides an innovative approach for a quantitative estimation of risk.…”

Combining operational models and data into a dynamic vessel risk assessment tool for coastal regions

“…The different metocean conditions directly affect accident probabilities (through correction factors), but can also influence oil weathering processes -for instance, higher evaporation rates are expected in the summer, reducing oil amount reaching shoreline, and consequently reducing shoreline risk in summer -as identified in Olita et al (2012). On the other hand, stronger wind conditions in winter can also cause a more intense oil dispersion in the water column, contributing to a lower shoreline contamination risk in winter, as expressed in Liubartseva et al (2015).…”

“…Other studies and methodologies developed dynamic approaches, with the possibility of being used in real-time support (Grifoll et al, 2010;Eide et al, 2007a, b;Bi and Si, 2012;Olita et al, 2012;Goldman et al, 2015;Canu et al, 2015). However, the method proposed by Grifoll et al (2010) does not include a fate and behaviour oil spill model for a better determination of areas affected by oil.…”

“…Bi and Si (2012) also presented a novel method for dynamic risk assessment of oil spill accidents based on numerical simulation, but in this case the method was only applied to an on-demand spill event or scenario, instead of providing continuous risk mapping based on ship traffic. Olita et al (2012), Canu et al (2015) and Goldman et al (2015) do not integrate directly metocean modelling data in the risk (accident probability) model, and the latter two papers do not use vessel data.…”