“…The Threshold Autoregressive (TAR) model was first discussed by Tong () and later revisited by Enders and Granger (), who introduced a model variation, the Momentum‐TAR (M‐TAR), increasing the model's popularity since then (for recent research in agricultural economics applying a TAR framework, see Abdulai, ; Awokuse & Wang, ; Goychuk & Meyers, ; Han , Chung, & Surathkal, ; Lee & Gómez, ; Simioni et al., ; Surathkal, Chung, & Sungill, ; Tekgüç, , among others). Engle and Granger () showed that when two variables are cointegrated, an Error Correction Model (ECM) can be specified as where are prices at two different levels of the supply chain, β 0 is a constant term, the term inside the brackets specifies the error correction mechanism (i.e., ECT), and are matrices of short‐run parameters estimating the effect of shocks on and is a disturbance term .…”