Olive Yields Forecasts and Oil Price Trends in Mediterranean Areas: A Comprehensive Analysis of the Last Two Decades

Orlandi, Fabio; Mendías, Carlos Salazar; Galán, Carmen; Msallem, M.; Fornaciari, Marco

doi:10.1017/s0014479716000077

Cited by 13 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 27 publications

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“…Spain is the largest producer of olive oil with 42% of the total world production with the main cultivation areas located in the centre and south of the Iberian Peninsula [2]. In recent years, North-western Spain has experienced an increase in the cultivated area of olive trees, for both ornamental and industrial uses, contributing to rural development as one of the major sources of income and employment in this area [3,4]. The most propitious areas for olive groves are the Miño and Sil basins, as a consequence of their Oceanic climate with Mediterranean influence.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Reproductive Biology of Olive Trees (Arbequina cultivar) at the Northern Limit of Their Distribution Areas

Garrido

Fernández-González

Vázquez‐Ruiz

et al. 2021

Forests

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In recent years, North-western Spain has experienced an increase in the cultivated area of olive trees. The main propitious areas for olive groves are the Miño and Sil basins, as a consequence of their Oceanic climate with Mediterranean influence. The objective of this study is to determine the characteristics of reproductive biology, phenological and aerobiological behaviour of olive trees in the most northerly new plantation areas of the Iberian Peninsula. The study was carried out in an olive grove growing Olea europaea L. cv. ‘Arbequina’ located in Quiroga (Lugo) from 2016 to 2018. The phenological observations were based upon the main growth stages following the Biologische Bundesanstalt Bundessortenamt and Chemical industry (BBCH) scale. To predict the onset of flowering, a thermal time model was used in order to quantify the chill requirements, and growing degree-days were applied to determine the heat requirement. The production, viability and germination rates of Olea pollen were evaluated from samples selected in nine individual trees for the phenological survey. The aerobiological study was conducted by means of a Hirst-type pollen trap located in the centre of the olive grove. The vegetative period of the olive tree in the study area lasted an average of 259 days. The important phenological stage 6 (flowering) was the shortest stage. An average of 704 Chilling Hours (CH) with a threshold of 2.5 °C was required to overcome the chilling period, 1139 Growing Degree Days (GDD) for the beginning of flowering, and 4463 GDD for harvest. The pollen production per anther was 82589 grains (± 14084 pollen grains), with a rate of 81% viability and 12% pollen tube germination. The main pollen season started on average on May 20th and ended on June 16th with an average duration of 27 days and an annual pollen integral of 833 pollen grains. The low pollen concentrations could be a consequence of the Northern location of the forest, in a bioclimatic transition zone between the Eurosiberian and the Mediterranean areas, at the limit of olive tree distribution.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Reproductive Biology of Olive Trees (Arbequina cultivar) at the Northern Limit of Their Distribution Areas

Garrido

Fernández-González

Vázquez‐Ruiz

et al. 2021

Forests

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“…From an economic point of view, olive crop forecasting is essential for optimizing both technical and human resources for harvesting (optimization of management, cultural practices, crop health care) and planning olive oil marketing and commercial distribution (stock management, activation of strategies, packing and distribution, movements in price markets). Anticipated crop estimates help to ensure better management planning of the olive production chain [4]. Each month of advance yield forecasting may represent precious information that can be used to take advantage over competitors.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Numerous studies have pointed out the importance of olive yield forecasting of airborne pollen amounts and weather conditions during the months following olive pollination [4,6,7]. However, pollen monitoring of olive groves has other valuable purposes from an agronomic point of view besides predicting olive yield as it allows to study the olive reproductive cycle on large areas of olive orchards as well [8].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This behavior is well-known and responds to a physiological balance for the olive tree, which takes two years to complete the entire biological life cycle [12]. This interannual alternation in fruit production is emphasized by unfavorable environmental conditions, which is a cause of great uncertainty for olive producers and the olive oil industry [4]. Therefore, climatic changes already observed on a global scale constitute a great source of uncertainty in the economic sector related to agricultural crops [13].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Impact of Climate Change on Olive Crop Production in Italy

et al. 2020

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The effects of climate change on agricultural systems raise important uncertainties about the future productivity and suitability of crops, especially in areas suffering from intense environmental changes. Olive groves occupy Mediterranean areas characterized by seasonal temporary droughts, which cause this cultivation to be highly dependent on local microclimatic conditions. Olive crop production can be reliably estimated using pollen intensity metrics together with post-pollination environmental conditions. In this study, we applied this kind of statistics-based models to identify the most relevant meteorological variables during the post-pollination periods for olive fruit production. Olive pollen time-series for the period of 1999–2012 was analyzed in 16 Italian provinces. Minimum and maximum temperature during spring and summer (March–August) showed a negative relationship with olive production, while precipitation always showed a positive correlation. The increase in aridity conditions observed in areas of Italy during the summer represents an important risk of decreasing olive crop production. The effect of climate change on the olive production trend is not clear because of the interactions between human and environmental factors, although some areas might show an increase in productivity in the near future under different climate change scenarios. However, as more drastic changes in temperature or precipitation take place, the risk to olive production will be considerably greater.

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“…The olive tree originates in the geographic region from the southern Caucasus to the plains of Iran and Palestine and the coastal zone of Syria, extending to all countries along the shores of the Mediterranean (Civantos, 2008;Silva, Oliveira, Pio, & Zambon, 2012). This crop has wide-ranging economic and social impacts (Aguilera et al, 2015;Orlandi, Aguilera, Galan, Msallem, & Fornaciari, 2016) because the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has implemented a "qualified health claim" on olive oil, since it protects against vascular pathologies.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Visual symptoms and nutritional deficiencies in olive trees under subjected to nutrient deprivation

et al. 2019

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As the fourth largest importer of olive oil and the fifth largest importer of olives, Brazil is one of the largest importers of olive (Olea europaea L.) products in the world. In recent decades, the introduction and growth of olive cultivars with lower chilling requirements in the south and southeast regions of Brazil have made olive production viable in the country. However, there is a dearth of information about the management of olive crops in Brazil, especially in relation to studies about the nutritional needs of olive trees grown in subtropical regions, which may enable advances in the productivity of this fruit. The aim of this study was to evaluate the growth, dry matter production and nutritional status of the olive tree under the effect of nutrient omissions, as well as to establish visual diagnostic parameters of nutrient deficiencies. We used a completely randomized design with ten treatments and three replicates grown in the Hoagland-Arnon nutrient solution and solutions with individual omissions of N, P, K, Ca, Mg, S, B, Fe, and Zn. The treatments that most limited the growth of olive trees were the N, Ca, and B omission treatments.

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Olive Yields Forecasts and Oil Price Trends in Mediterranean Areas: A Comprehensive Analysis of the Last Two Decades

Cited by 13 publications

References 27 publications

Reproductive Biology of Olive Trees (Arbequina cultivar) at the Northern Limit of Their Distribution Areas

Reproductive Biology of Olive Trees (Arbequina cultivar) at the Northern Limit of Their Distribution Areas

Impact of Climate Change on Olive Crop Production in Italy

Visual symptoms and nutritional deficiencies in olive trees under subjected to nutrient deprivation

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