The response of cancer cells to drugs is determined by various factors, including the cells' mutations and gene expression levels. These factors can be assessed using next-generation sequencing. Their integration with vast prior knowledge on signaling pathways is, however, limited by the availability of mathematical models and scalable computational methods. Here, we present a computational framework for the parameterization of large-scale mechanistic models and its application to the prediction of drug response of cancer cell lines from exome and transcriptome sequencing data. With this framework, we parameterized a mechanistic model describing major cancer-associated signaling pathways (>1200 species and >2600 reactions) using drug response data. For the parameterized mechanistic model, we found a prediction accuracy, which exceeds that of the considered statistical approaches. Our results demonstrate for the first time the massive integration of heterogeneous datasets using large-scale mechanistic models, and how these models facilitate individualized predictions of drug response. We anticipate our parameterized model to be a starting point for the development of more comprehensive, curated models of signaling pathways, accounting for additional pathways and drugs.
IntroductionPersonalized tumor therapy relies on our ability to predict the drug response of cancer cells from genomic data 1 . This requires the integration of genomic data with available prior knowledge, and its interpretation in the context of cancer-associated processes 2 . At the heart of this endeavor are statistical and mechanistic mathematical models 3 . In patient .
CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license not peer-reviewed) is the author/funder. It is made available under aThe copyright holder for this preprint (which was . http://dx.doi.org/10.1101/174094 doi: bioRxiv preprint first posted online Aug. 9, 2017; 2 stratification, statistical models are used to derive prognostic and predictive signatures of tumor subtypes 4,5 . Linear and nonlinear regression, machine learning methods and related approaches have been used to obtain such signatures 6 . Yet, purely statistical models do not provide mechanistic insights or information about actionable targets. High-quality mechanistic models of cancer signaling are thus of interest to researchers and clinicians in systems biology and systems medicine.Mechanistic models aim to quantitatively describe biological processes. Consequently, they facilitate the systematic integration of prior knowledge on signaling pathways, as well as the effect of somatic mutations and gene expression. These models have been used for the identification of drug targets 7 as well as the development of prognostic signatures 8,9 .Furthermore, mechanistic modeling has facilitated the study of oncogene addiction 10 , After the construction of a mechanistic model, parameterization from experimental data is necessary to render the model predictive. Optimization methods achieve this by iteratively minimizing the objective f...