On safety analysis of complex technical maritime transportation systems

Kołowrocki, K.; Soszyńska, J.

doi:10.1177/1748006x11407812

Cited by 3 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 13 publications

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“…The first step is to identify the influencing factors. As the collision accident will be developed into other types of accidents if it is not well handled, [31][32][33][34] this article considers both the causation factors and the emergency management as the influencing factors. The reasons why these influencing factors are selected are shown in Table 1.…”

Section: Construct Graphical Structure Of Consequence Estimation Consmentioning

confidence: 99%

A probabilistic consequence estimation model for collision accidents in the downstream of Yangtze River using Bayesian Networks

Tian

Yan

et al. 2019

Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part O:

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Collision is a major type of accident in maritime transportation, which in the downstream of Yangtze River is even more pronounced due to specific features that have significant impact on the collision consequence, including a special lane for small-sized ships, traffic intensity variation with the tide period, many restricted areas, and emergency resources spread along the river. This article models the collision consequences in the downstream of Yangtze River using Bayesian Networks, considering the causation factors and including a novel approach for the emergency management of maritime accidents. The graphical structure lies on domain experts and on previous works, while the conditional probability tables are developed from historical data. Both the graphical structure and parameters are validated using the well-known methods, which reflects that the developed model is reasonable. The merits of the proposed consequence estimation model that considers emergency management includes (1) a detailed description of the collision accident development and (2) consequence estimation result with good accuracy.

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Section: Construct Graphical Structure Of Consequence Estimation Consmentioning

confidence: 99%

A probabilistic consequence estimation model for collision accidents in the downstream of Yangtze River using Bayesian Networks

Tian

Yan

et al. 2019

Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part O:

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“…The above assumptions mean that the safety states of the system with degrading components may be changed in time only from better to worse [11]- [13].…”

Section: Safety Analysis Of Multistate Systemsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Taking into account the importance of the safety and operating process effectiveness of real technical systems it seems reasonable to expand the two-state approach [8], [9] to multi-state approach [1]- [4], [6]- [21] in safety analysis. The assumption that the systems are composed of multi-state components with safety states degrading in time [11]- [13] gives the possibility for more precise analysis of their safety and operational processes' effectiveness. This assumption allows us to distinguish a system safety critical state to exceed which is either dangerous for the environment or does not assure the necessary level of its operation process effectiveness.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling safety of multistate systems with ageing components

Kołowrocki¹,

Soszyńska-Budny²

2016

AIP Conference Proceedings

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Basic notions of the ageing multistate systems safety analysis are introduced. The system components and the system multistate safety functions are defined. The mean values and variances of the multistate systems lifetimes in the safety state subsets and the mean values of their lifetimes in the particular safety states are defined. The multi-state system risk function and the moment of exceeding by the system the critical safety state are introduced. The exemplary safety structures of the multistate systems with ageing components are defined and their safety functions are determined. As a particular case, the safety functions of the considered multistate systems composed of components having exponential safety functions are determined. Applications of the proposed multistate system safety models to the evaluation and prediction of the safty characteristics of the exemplary series, parallel, "m out of n", consecutive "m out of n: F", series-parallel, parallel-series and "m out of l"-series systems are presented as well.

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“…Since the 1990s, the maritime safety analysis has concentrated on the methodological aspects instead of on theoretical or conceptual matters [15]. A number of advanced operational research techniques started receiving more and more attention, such as fuzzy logic [16,17], genetic algorithms [18,19], evidential reasoning [20,21], Bayesian networks [22], and Markov chains [23]. In the meantime, some studies still continued addressing the theoretical aspects of cruise ship accidents [24].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Cruise Ship Safety Management in Asian Regions: Trends and Future Outlook

2020

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The sinking of the Titanic has brought cruise ship safety onto the international agenda. However, different shipwrecks have been occurring in the cruise industry with relatively high frequency for more than one century due to human errors. In order to improve cruise ship safety, the International Maritime Organization and the Cruise Lines International Association introduced a set of safety enhancement policies and measurements. However, the expansion of ships and fairly weak safety regulations continue to pose risks of human life loss during cruise ship accidents, particularly in Asian regions. Asian countries have been constantly implementing various safety measures, but serious cruise ship accidents still occur from time to time, even after significant past experiences. Are the cruise ship accidents predominantly the result of human failures and organizational factors? This paper undertakes a detailed historical review of cruise ship accidents since 1972 through an intensive overview of the documents published by the Safety of Life at Sea (SOLAS) Convention and the Maritime Safety Committee. Furthermore, a set of case studies of representative cruise ship accidents are conducted as a part of this study. The outcomes of this study will help cruise shipping companies to better understand the factors influencing cruise ship accident occurrence and to construct appropriate safety policy measures, aiming to prevent cruise ship accidents in Asian regions.

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On safety analysis of complex technical maritime transportation systems

Cited by 3 publications

References 13 publications

A probabilistic consequence estimation model for collision accidents in the downstream of Yangtze River using Bayesian Networks

A probabilistic consequence estimation model for collision accidents in the downstream of Yangtze River using Bayesian Networks

Modelling safety of multistate systems with ageing components

Cruise Ship Safety Management in Asian Regions: Trends and Future Outlook

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