2021
DOI: 10.1093/imaman/dpab026
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On skill and chance in sport

Abstract: This work studies outcome uncertainty and competitive balance from a broad perspective. It considers four sports with varying scoring rates, from soccer with typically three goals per match to netball with one hundred goals per match. Within a general modelling framework for a two-competitor contest, we argue that outcome uncertainty, the extent to which the outcome of a contest is unpredictable, depends on scoring rate, on strength variation and on score dependence. Score dependence is essentially the tendenc… Show more

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Cited by 5 publications
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“…This is because, for fixed competitor strengths, the restart rule may influence outcome uncertainty (outcomes may be closer on average) and this may be explained by dependence (e.g. correlation) between scores ( Scarf et al, 2022 ). Note, the purpose of this comparison is not to decide which model is better, because, as we discuss above, the models are complementary.…”
Section: Comparison Of the Markov-match With The Binomial-matchmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…This is because, for fixed competitor strengths, the restart rule may influence outcome uncertainty (outcomes may be closer on average) and this may be explained by dependence (e.g. correlation) between scores ( Scarf et al, 2022 ). Note, the purpose of this comparison is not to decide which model is better, because, as we discuss above, the models are complementary.…”
Section: Comparison Of the Markov-match With The Binomial-matchmentioning
confidence: 99%