On the ability of RCMs to capture the circulation pattern of Etesians

Dafka, Stella; Toreti, Andrea; Luterbacher, Jürg; Zanis, Prodromos; Tyrlis, Evangelos; Xoplaki, Elena

doi:10.1007/s00382-017-3977-2

Cited by 14 publications

(15 citation statements)

References 72 publications

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“…We find the strengthening of both jet streams and the northward displacement of the STJ in both RCPs and future periods, when the Etesians are blowing. It is noteworthy to mention that both jet streams are sufficiently captured in the EURO‐CORDEX simulations within the historical period 1989–2004 (Dafka et al, ). This increases the confidence in the projected signal.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 92%

Twenty‐First‐Century Changes in the Eastern Mediterranean Etesians and Associated Midlatitude Atmospheric Circulation

et al. 2019

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The Etesians are the dominant synoptically driven winds observed in the Eastern Mediterranean, usually from late spring to late summer. Due to the complex topography, the Etesians can be very strong and pose significant environmental hazards, especially over wildfire incidents. This study assesses the impacts of climate change on future Etesians by analyzing the response of the most recent EURO‐CORDEX regional climate simulations at the 12‐km grid resolution over the twenty‐first century. The mean model ensemble projects a significant increase of the Etesians' frequency and intensity under the two emission scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. This response is connected to an increase in the zonal wind at 200 hPa, a reinforcement of the midlatitude westerly flow, and a decrease in the wave amplitude. These circulation changes accelerate the mid‐to‐high latitude eastward propagation of the large‐scale circulation systems which can favor enhanced ridges over the Balkans. A strengthening and poleward shift of the subtropical jet stream is also projected, connected with stronger subsidence over the Eastern Mediterranean. The projected changes will have profound environmental and societal implications, including the lengthening of the wildfire season and increasing air pollution risk in the region. On the other hand, the current estimate of future wind power potential in the Aegean Sea will be significantly increased by the end of the century, which might have positive impact in the regional economy.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 92%

Twenty‐First‐Century Changes in the Eastern Mediterranean Etesians and Associated Midlatitude Atmospheric Circulation

et al. 2019

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“…Because the maximum daily temperature during the summer is governed by the Etesian winds together with the sea-land breeze circulation (Levi et al, 2011), it is speculated here that the 8 km simulation does not adequately represent the cool sea-land breeze winds, thus producing overestimations, which are probably smoothed out in the mean daily temperatures (Hochman et al, 2017a). However, because the Etesian winds are a larger-scale phenomenon, they are probably simulated well by the RCM simulation (e.g., Dafka et al, 2017). Other feedbacks within the model may be responsible for the overestimation of seasonal temperatures, such as the soil moisture-air temperature coupling (e.g., Seneviratne et al, 2010;Zittis et al, 2014).…”

Section: Evaluation Of Seasonal Mean Temperature and Precipitationmentioning

confidence: 92%

High‐resolution projection of climate change and extremity over Israel using COSMO‐CLM

Hochman

Mercogliano

Alpert

et al. 2018

Intl Journal of Climatology

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High‐resolution climate projections over Israel (about 8 km) have been obtained with the regional model COSMO‐CLM, nested into the CORDEX‐MENA simulations at 25 km resolution. This simulation provides high‐resolution spatial variability of total precipitation and precipitation intensity. Projections are presented not only in terms of average properties, but also using a subset of extreme temperature and precipitation indices from the standard Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) for the period 2041–2070 with respect to 1981–2010 (RCP4.5). A general increase in seasonal mean temperature is projected throughout the domain with peaks of ~2.5 °C, especially in winter and autumn. Extreme temperature indices show increases, larger in the minimum than in the maximum temperatures. Regarding total seasonal precipitation, decreases were found in the north and central Mediterranean climate parts of Israel, with reductions reaching ~40%, and increases of the same percentage in the most southern arid parts during winter and spring. An increase in precipitation intensity is shown mostly for the southern arid part of the region, with some indications of extremity also in the north. This spatial pattern probably results from a decrease in cyclones’ occurrences, which mainly influences the northern and central parts of Israel, and an increase in convective activity in the south. The outcome of this study can serve as a basis for priority setting and policy formulation towards better climate adaptation.

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“…The subtropical Azores' anticyclone at the surface, is frequently almost permanent over the western The background summer atmospheric circulation mentioned above is usually believed to be strongly influenced by the surface thermal low. This has a trough that extends from India and Pakistan through the Persian Gulf, Iraq and Turkey up to Greek territory, where it meets the semi-permanent subtropical high over the central Mediterranean (Prezerakos, 1998;1984;Bitan and Saaroni, 1992;Dafka et al, 2016;2017;Tyrlis, Lelieveld and Steil, 2013) and the Rossby waves train and PJS over the North Balkans (Prezerakos, 1998). This trough, according to Israeli terminology (Bitan and Saaroni, 1992), is called the "Persian trough" or "seasonal trough" according to the Cypriot one (pers.…”

Section: Dominant Atmospheric Circulationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Etesian winds outbursts over the Greek Seas and their linkage with larger-scale atmospheric circulation features: Two real time data case studies

Prezerakos¹

2022

Atm.

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There are significant differences in the way that researchers have defined "Etesian wind days". An attempt is made here to establish common definitions of the various types of Etesian winds from the weather forecaster's viewpoint. These definitions are based on objective criteria adopted from the frequency of atmospheric circulation features associated with the occurrence of the Etesian winds and their physical characteristics. The presence of fairly constant northerly winds over the Greek Seas in summer are called Etesian winds. When a new spell of Etesian winds is established with no diurnal variation of the wind direction for consecutive days (maximum of seven), these winds are called "type B" Etesian winds or "Etesian outbursts". The atmospheric circulations associated with the occurrence, origin and evolution of the type B Etesian winds and the accompanying weather are revealed utilizing data for the period 1975-2015 and focusing on two case studies on 21/22 July 1983 and 3/4 July 2017. The presence of the Subtropical Jet Stream (SJS) over the Greek territory and its interaction with the Polar Jet Stream (PJS) are dominant factors. Large-scale atmospheric circulations are studied to identify simultaneous direct links to the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM), El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden-Julian Oscillation (JMO), deep convective activity in the Hadley circulation in the tropics, and West Africa Monsoon (WAM).

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On the ability of RCMs to capture the circulation pattern of Etesians

Cited by 14 publications

References 72 publications

Twenty‐First‐Century Changes in the Eastern Mediterranean Etesians and Associated Midlatitude Atmospheric Circulation

Twenty‐First‐Century Changes in the Eastern Mediterranean Etesians and Associated Midlatitude Atmospheric Circulation

High‐resolution projection of climate change and extremity over Israel using COSMO‐CLM

Etesian winds outbursts over the Greek Seas and their linkage with larger-scale atmospheric circulation features: Two real time data case studies

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