On the Asymmetry of the Tropical Pacific Thermocline Fluctuation Associated With ENSO Recharge and Discharge

Li, Xiaofan; Hu, Zeng‐Zhen; Zhao, Sen; Ding, Ruiqiang; Zhang, Banglin

doi:10.1029/2022gl099242

Cited by 5 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 42 publications

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“…Overall, as compared to SLA-OGEs and SSTA-OGEs, the joint effects of SSTA and SLA act on THA and sea subsurface temperature anomalies, thereby promoting continuous heating and thermal diffusion in the upper ocean [38,39]. This makes both error evolutions and the SPB induced by Joint-OGEs more intense than SLA-OGEs and SSTA-OGEs.…”

Section: Dynamics Analysis On Joint-ogesmentioning

confidence: 97%

Error Evolutions and Analyses on Joint Effects of SST and SL via Intermediate Coupled Models and Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbation Method

Qin

Yuan

et al. 2023

JMSE

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A seasonal predictability barrier has long been noticed in ENSO forecasting with numerical models. Previous studies explored the impact of seasonal optimal initial perturbation evolutions in sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) on ENSO forecasting using the intermediate coupled model (ICM) via the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP) method. In this paper, we investigate the joint effects of SSTA and sea level anomalies (SLA) from the perspective of the optimal growth initial error (OGE). After determining the four seasonal OGEs about SSTA and SLA (i.e., SSTA-OGE, SLA-OGE and Joint-OGE), we first demonstrate the patterns, evolutions and the resulting spring predictability barrier (SPB) of the above OGEs. Then, we analyze the mechanism of OGE evolutions and SPB. Finally, we conduct observing system simulation experiments to determine the best (economic) observation network. Our experimental results indicate that the ENSO evolution error induced by SSTA-OGE and Joint-OGE presents season dependency, but SLA-OGE has no impact on ENSO evolution. Moreover, Joint-OGEs induce error evolutions and the SPB with more significant intensity than SSTA-OGEs and SLA-OGEs. From mechanism analyses, the evolutions of SSTA-OGEs are mainly dominated by Bjerknes feedback. Further, the evolution dynamics of Joint-OGEs primarily contain the continuous heating between the upper ocean combined with Bjerknes feedback and thermal diffusion in response to the discharge process. In addition, comprehensive and economical sensitive areas are identified through Joint-OGE, including the central-eastern equatorial Pacific and the western and north-eastern tropical Pacific boundary, which contribute to the ENSO prediction benefits reaching 58.31% on average.

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Section: Dynamics Analysis On Joint-ogesmentioning

confidence: 97%

Error Evolutions and Analyses on Joint Effects of SST and SL via Intermediate Coupled Models and Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbation Method

Qin

Yuan

et al. 2023

JMSE

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“…Another asymmetry is that the discharge associated with El Niño is stronger than the recharge linked to La Niña (Kessler 2002;Hu et al 2017;Li et al 2020;2022a). Such asymmetry contributes to the asymmetry evolution of ENSO: both El Niño and La Niña are mostly followed by La Niña.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Single-year and double-year El Niños

Gao

Zheng

et al. 2022

Clim Dyn

Self Cite

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Compared with well documented and frequent occurrence of multi-year La Niña, double-year El Niño is less frequent and has not been well investigated. Both of them are a discrepancy from the cyclic behavior of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and deserve investigation. During 1950-2021, 75% of El Niño events persist for one year, and 25% of them last for two years. Both central and eastern Paci c type El Niños occur in the single-year and double-year El Niños with various strengths. Compared with the single-year El Niños, the averaged warm water volume (WWV) is larger in the peak and declines much slower for the double-year El Niños, suggesting that a persistently recharged heat condition of the equatorial Paci c is a precondition for the emergence of a second-year El Niño. The faster decline of WWV in the single-year El Niños is associated with the in-phase decrease of its intraseasonal-interseasonal and interannual components, while the slower decline of WWV in the double-year El Niños is determined by the interannual component. In addition, the single-year and double-year El Niño may have different impacts on regional climate.

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On the weakened connection between ENSO SST and warm water volume along the equatorial Pacific

Tan,

Liu,

et al. 2024

Clim Dyn

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On the Asymmetry of the Tropical Pacific Thermocline Fluctuation Associated With ENSO Recharge and Discharge

Cited by 5 publications

References 42 publications

Error Evolutions and Analyses on Joint Effects of SST and SL via Intermediate Coupled Models and Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbation Method

Error Evolutions and Analyses on Joint Effects of SST and SL via Intermediate Coupled Models and Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbation Method

Single-year and double-year El Niños

On the weakened connection between ENSO SST and warm water volume along the equatorial Pacific

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