On the connection between large-scale atmospheric circulation and winter GPCP precipitation over the Mediterranean region for the period 1980-2017

Kotsias, George; Lolis, C. J.; Hatzianastassiou, N.; Levizzani, V.; Bartzokas, A.

doi:10.1016/j.atmosres.2019.104714

Cited by 25 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 49 publications

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“…Concerning teleconnections, we observed that among the analysed indexes and limiting the TC and AR areas, the AO resulted the most correlated, although such relationship is limited to very short time scales (not more than 1 month). These findings confirm similar results by Bartolini et al (2009) and at a wider spatial scale by Rios-Cornejo et al (2015), Tabari and Willems (2018) and Kotsias et al (2020). Furthermore, we pointed out that considering short time scales (from 1 to 6 months), it seems that the autumn and winter precipitation are the most related to teleconnection indexes on the Tyrrhenian and Apennines areas, while rainfall over the Adriatic coast does not show any clear relation to the analysed TI.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 91%

“…Possible relations with other teleconnection patterns have been explored too, although less systematically, suggesting that other atmospheric indexes can in some cases constitute suitable proxies of the precipitation regime: Arctic Oscillation index (Bartolini et al, 2009;Rios-Cornejo et al, 2015;Baltacı et al, 2018;Duzenli et al, 2018;Tabari and Willems, 2018;Redolat et al, 2019;Kotsias et al, 2020), Scandinavian pattern (Mathbout et al, 2020), European Blocking Index (i.e., Brunetti et al, 2002Cutore et al, 2009), East Atlantic index (Rios-Cornejo et al, 2015;Kalimeris et al, 2017;Baltacı et al, 2018;Scorzini and Leopardi, 2018;Maticé t al., 2019), East-Atlantic/West Russia (Scorzini and Leopardi, 2018;Mathbout et al, 2020), West European Zonal Circulation (i.e., Brunetti et al, 2002), Mediterranean Oscillation Index (i.e., Beranova and Kyselý, 2016;Mathbout et al, 2020), or Western Mediterranean Oscillation Index (Redolat et al, 2019;Mathbout et al, 2020). Despite the observed relationships between atmospheric circulation pattern indexes and rainfall, several authors pointed out that local factors can strongly affect the local precipitation regime, preventing from using the only large-scale analysis for characterizing drought episodes.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Do recent meteorological drought events in central Italy result from long‐term trend or increasing variability?

Romano

Petrangeli

Salerno

et al. 2021

Intl Journal of Climatology

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The Mediterranean area is one of the most important “hotspot” where the effects of climate change are more evident, with an increase of extreme events such as hot waves and intense droughts. From this perspective, central Italy, which in the recent past suffered from the impact of intense negative anomalies of precipitation on water resources, shows peculiar characteristics, being its meteoclimatic regime determined by global, regional and local factors. In this context, this study aims at exploring the variability in time and space of the precipitation regime in central Italy over the period 1960–2020 analysing global factors, represented by indexes of teleconnection, and local factors such as orography and distance to the sea. Findings indicate an increase of drought events during the last 20 years, in a general pattern characterized by stationary precipitation amounts. This trend is clearer on the Tyrrhenian coast with a number of months under severe drought conditions increasing from 5% (1965–1999) to 24% (2000–2020). The strengthening of the periodic signal of precipitation is related mainly to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation Index and the Western Mediterranean Oscillation Index. Considering the relationship between precipitation and teleconnection patterns over short time scales (few months), correlations are stronger with the North Atlantic Oscillation index and in general with the Atlantic patterns rather than with the Artic patterns, especially for the Adriatic side.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 91%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Do recent meteorological drought events in central Italy result from long‐term trend or increasing variability?

Romano

Petrangeli

Salerno

et al. 2021

Intl Journal of Climatology

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“…The effect of cross-correlations with solar cycles could be attributed to the effect of the NAO, while for European beech, the influence of the NAO on the radial growth in central Italy was confirmed [51]. Changes in the radial growth of European beech in Italy in the second and third time periods may have been due to the influences of the NAO over Europe, which may have caused different responses of cross-correlations between Krkonoše and the Apennines [104,105].…”

Section: Feedback and The Relationship Of Radial Growth To The Sunspot Number Across The Time Framementioning

confidence: 93%

Tree Rings of European Beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) Indicate the Relationship with Solar Cycles during Climate Change in Central and Southern Europe

Šimůnek

Vacek

et al. 2021

Forests

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The impact of solar cycles on forest stands, while important in the development of the forest environment during climate change, has not yet been sufficiently researched. This work evaluates the radial growth of European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) in the mountain areas of southern Italy and central Europe (Czech Republic, Poland) in correlation to solar cycles (sunspot number), extreme climatic events, air temperatures and precipitation totals. This research is focused on the evaluation of the radial growth of beech (140 dendrochronological samples with 90–247 years of age) from 1900 to 2019. The time span was divided into the following three periods: 1) a period of regular harvesting (1900–1969), 2) a period of air pollution crisis (1970–1985) and 3) a period of forest protection (1986–2019). The results indicate that the solar cycle was significantly involved in radial growth on all research plots. With regard to the evaluated precipitation totals, seasonal temperatures and the sunspot number, the latter was the most significant. Temperatures had a positive effect and precipitation had a negative effect on the radial increment of beech in central Europe, while in southern Italy, the effect of temperature and precipitation on the increment is reversed. In general, the limiting factor for beech growth is the lack of precipitation during the vegetation season. The number of negative pointer years (NPY) with an extremely low increment rose in relation to the decreasing southward latitude and the increasing influence of climate change over time, while a higher number of NPY was found in nutrient-richer habitats compared to nutrient-poorer ones. Precipitation and temperature were also reflected in the cyclical radial growth of European beech. The relationship between solar cycles and the tree ring increment was reversed in southern Italy and central Europe in the second and third (1970–2019) time periods. In the first time period (1900–1969), there was a positive relationship of the increment to solar cycles on all research plots. In the tree rings of European beech from southern Italy and central Europe, a relationship to the 11-year solar cycle has been documented. This study will attempt to describe the differences in beech growth within Europe, and also to educate forest managers about the relevant influence of solar cycles. Solar activity can play an important role in the growth of European beech in central and southern Europe, especially during the recent years of global climate change.

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“…Nevertheless, other modes of LSC variability -such as the Euro-Atlantic blocking (EAB) or the East Atlantic/western Russia pattern (EA/WR) -better explain precipitation variability in central Europe, especially in the Alpine region which acts as a climatological barrier at the crossroads of different atmospheric influences (Auer et al, 2007;Bartolini et al, 2009;Beniston, 2005;Quadrelli et al, 2001;Scherrer et al, 2016). The northern flanks of the Alpine range experience wet conditions under the Atlantic ridge pattern, while the southern flanks experience wet conditions when low-pressure anomalies stand over the near Atlantic (Kotsias et al, 2019;Plaut and Simonnet, 2001). Specific LSC patterns also drive extreme weather events over Europe and the Mediterranean region, including extreme precipitation (Pasquier et al, 2019), floods (Stucki et al, 2012) or extreme snowfall (Scherrer and Appenzeller, 2006).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Past evolution of western Europe large-scale circulation and link to precipitation trend in the northern French Alps

Blanc

Blanchet

Creutin

2022

Weather Clim. Dynam.

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Abstract. Detecting trends in regional large-scale circulation (LSC) is an important challenge as LSC is a key driver of local weather conditions. In this work, we investigate the past evolution of western Europe LSC based on the 500 hPa geopotential height fields from 20CRv2c (1851–2010), ERA20C (1900–2010) and ERA5 (1950–2010) reanalyses. We focus on the evolution of large-scale circulation characteristics using three atmospheric descriptors that are based on analogy by comparing daily geopotential height fields to each other. They characterize the stationarity of geopotential shape and how well a geopotential shape is reproduced in the climatology. A non-analogy descriptor is also employed to account for the intensity of the centers of action. We then combine the four atmospheric descriptors with an existing weather pattern classification over the period 1950–2019 to study the recent changes in the two main atmospheric influences driving precipitation in the northern French Alps. They correspond to the Atlantic circulation pattern dominated by a zonal flow and the Mediterranean circulation pattern dominated by low-pressure anomalies over the near Atlantic, close to Portugal. Even though LSC characteristics and trends are consistent among the three reanalyses after 1950, we find major differences between 20CRv2c and ERA20C from 1900 to 1950 in accordance with previous studies. Notably, ERA20C produces flatter geopotential shapes in the beginning of the 20th century and shows a reinforcement of the meridional pressure gradient that is not observed in 20CRv2c. Over the period 1950–2019, we show that winter Atlantic circulations (zonal flows) tend to be shifted northward, and they become more similar to known Atlantic circulations. Mediterranean circulations tend to become more stationary, more similar to known Mediterranean circulations and associated with stronger centers of action in autumn, while an opposite behavior is observed in winter. Finally, we discuss the role of these LSC changes for seasonal and extreme precipitation in the northern French Alps. We show that these changes in LSC characteristics are linked to (a) the decreasing contribution of Mediterranean circulations to winter precipitation and (b) more circulations that are likely to generate extreme precipitation in autumn.

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On the connection between large-scale atmospheric circulation and winter GPCP precipitation over the Mediterranean region for the period 1980-2017

Cited by 25 publications

References 49 publications

Do recent meteorological drought events in central Italy result from long‐term trend or increasing variability?

Do recent meteorological drought events in central Italy result from long‐term trend or increasing variability?

Tree Rings of European Beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) Indicate the Relationship with Solar Cycles during Climate Change in Central and Southern Europe

Past evolution of western Europe large-scale circulation and link to precipitation trend in the northern French Alps

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