On the degree of synchronization between air transport connectivity and COVID-19 cases at worldwide level

Sun, Xiaoqian; Wandelt, Sebastian; Zhang, Anming

doi:10.1016/j.tranpol.2021.03.005

Cited by 79 publications

(57 citation statements)

References 35 publications

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“…These three examples share a commonality: They were contained before being able to spread at planet-scale, by an efficient combination of strict flight restrictions and local health checks. For COVID-19, the critical time window for containing the spread from the virus origin was missed ( Lau et al, 2020 , Nakamura and Managi, 2020 , Sun et al, 2021a ), spurring the development of one of the worst pandemics in recent human history.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In this study, we aim to evaluate the reactions of countries towards these emerging variants of concern. Especially, we are interested in answering the question of whether countries have possibly reacted too late with flight bans; as it seems to have occurred with uncoordinated border closures during the early phases of COVID-19 ( Sun et al, 2021a ); see Sun et al (2021b) for a recent survey of the impact SARS-CoV-2 had on air transportation. Table 1 reports selected countries’ reactions towards the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 mutations.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Delayed reaction towards emerging COVID-19 variants of concern: Does history repeat itself?

Sun

Wandelt

Zhang

2021

Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice

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After more than a year with COVID-19, it becomes increasingly clear that certain variants of concern have the potential to be game changers, determining the future of our aviation. These variants pose significant health threats and possibly undermine ongoing vaccination efforts. Recent research showed that flight bans on the initial SARS-CoV-2 outbreak in January 2020 were implemented too late and therefore, turned out to be largely ineffective, enabling a swift turn into a fully-blown pandemic. In this study, we investigate the following question: How effective were existing flight bans against the newly emerged variants of concern? In other words: Do airlines and countries happen to repeat the same mistake again? We analyze the spread of the three most prevalent variants of concern right now: B.1.1.7 (known as the UK variant), B.1.351 (known as the South African variant), and P.1 (known as the Brazilian variant). We find that many countries, again, implemented flights bans once the mutated virus had enough time to be imported via air transportation. To support our empirical analysis further, we designed and implemented a compartmental network spreading model on top of worldwide flight data for the years 2020 and 2021. We observe that the model predictions are rather accurate and confirm our findings. Overall, we hope that our study encourages air transportation stakeholders and policy makers to avoid repeating earlier mistakes in the future, with the ultimate goal to overcome COVID-19 entirely.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Delayed reaction towards emerging COVID-19 variants of concern: Does history repeat itself?

Sun

Wandelt

Zhang

2021

Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice

Self Cite

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“…In addition to the direct impact on health, COVID-19 has had devastating effects on the aviation industry ( Suau-Sanchez et al, 2020 ). An unprecedented reduction of flights ( Nakamura and Managi, 2020 ; Sun et al, 2020 ), entire fleets being grounded ( Adrienne et al, 2020 ), aviation workforce layoffs ( Miani et al, 2021 ), a puzzle of country-wise flight bans and recoveries ( Sun et al, 2021b ), are the characteristics of probably aviation’s biggest crisis; see Sun et al (2021c) for a recent review on the impact of COVID-19 on aviation. Despite the negative impact of COVID-19 and the ongoing struggle of aviation stakeholders for survival, several researchers have argued that now is the ideal opportunity to rethink and redesign aviation ( Macilree and Duval, 2020 ; Wilson and Chen, 2020 ; Suau-Sanchez et al, 2020 ; Gössling et al, 2021b ; Tisdall et al, 2021 ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Technological and educational challenges towards pandemic-resilient aviation

2021

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While COVID-19 has devastating effects on aviation, several recent studies have highlighted the potential of the pandemic-induced break for rethinking air transportation, hopefully orchestrating changes towards the construction of a more pandemic-resilient aviation system. Here, pandemic-resilient means that aviation stakeholders can sustain the impact of an epidemic or pandemic outbreak through a more informed reallocation of their resources and more collaborative decision making, while being able to minimize the impacts of external events. Our study contributes to the literature by discussing the challenges associated with technological innovation and education of aviation professionals, on the way towards pandemic-resilient aviation. We discuss issues surrounding technologies for smarter aircraft, smarter airports, and smarter airlines. While technology ensures long-term competitiveness and sustainability, an often-ignored source of challenges are human resources and education. COVID-19 has uncovered and magnified the effects of severe concerns with the current aviation education system, which need to be solved by extended skill sets, modern technology, and better career perspectives. Without properly addressing these technological and educational challenges, the aviation industry likely misses an distinct opportunity for restructuring towards pandemic-resilient aviation.

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“…Even though the pandemic has affected every aspect of the aviation industry, most of these effects originated from human-to-human transmission and associated health risks to passengers, crews, ground staff, cargo handlers and all stakeholders directly or indirectly involved. The immediate effects were, of course, reduced travel demand and government-initiated travel and immigration restrictions ( Sun et al, 2021 ). As the initial epidemic spread across the globe from China, the ‘lockdowns’ of cities and airports led to a massive decline in air traffic ( Fig.…”

Section: Covid-19 Impacts On the Civil Aviation Industrymentioning

confidence: 99%

Airport pandemic response: An assessment of impacts and strategies after one year with COVID-19

Arora¹,

Tuchen²,

Nazemi³

et al. 2021

Transportation Research Interdisciplinary Perspectives

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The COVID-19 pandemic has caused an unprecedented crisis for the air transportation industry, affecting millions of aviation users and stakeholders. As the aviation sector has faced disease outbreaks and extreme events before—albeit not at the same scale—and will, in all likelihood, face them again, we provide an assessment in this study that a) gives an overview of the effects of the pandemic, b) categorizes the response mechanisms that were observed, and c) proposes a framework for a coordinated global response to future disease outbreaks. We highlight that of the many lessons, recommendations, and suggestions that emerged during previous outbreaks, few were introduced effectively into civil aviation practices and operations. Based on multiple data sources for passengers, cargo, and flight schedules, we assess the impact of COVID-19 on the global aviation industry and compare the data of some prominent airports to highlight the need for a coordinated response to effectively deal with future disruptions. As global aviation navigates its ongoing recovery, we discuss different responses during the pandemic including guidelines issued by bodies such as International Civil Aviation Organization, operational decisions such as closing terminals, increased cleaning frequencies, and mask mandates etc. We emphasize the need for resilience to accommodate disease outbreaks in future planning, design, and preparedness strategies for airports and airlines. We further argue that the existing civil aviation system needs a coordinated global response mechanism to combat future outbreaks and propose a framework with a threat response matrix to keep aviation safe and operational during future pandemics and mitigate socioeconomic fallout.

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On the degree of synchronization between air transport connectivity and COVID-19 cases at worldwide level

Cited by 79 publications

References 35 publications

Delayed reaction towards emerging COVID-19 variants of concern: Does history repeat itself?

Delayed reaction towards emerging COVID-19 variants of concern: Does history repeat itself?

Technological and educational challenges towards pandemic-resilient aviation

Airport pandemic response: An assessment of impacts and strategies after one year with COVID-19

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