On the drivers of the fertility rebound

Mavropoulos, Georgios; Panagiotidis, Theodore

doi:10.1007/s10644-020-09297-2

Cited by 3 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 35 publications

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“…The findings of Myrskylä et al (2009) were reproduced by several studies, which further examined the mechanisms behind the reversal of fertility declines (Myrskylä et al, 2011;Luci-Greulich and Thévenon, 2014;Mavropoulos and Panagiotidis, 2021). These studies found that changes in gender attitudes and family policies can indeed lead to higher fertility at highest-high levels of development (Myrskylä et al, 2011).…”

Section: Fertility and Development At The National Levelmentioning

confidence: 77%

“…The initial evidence on the inverse J-shape and on reversals of fertility declines spawned a rich, partly critical body of literature that generated mixed evidence. Several studies replicated the original findings at the national and the subnational levels, and argued that gender attitudes, late childbearing, and family policies have been key contributors to recent fertility increases (Myrskylä et al, 2011;Luci-Greulich and Thévenon, 2014;Anderson and Kohler, 2015;Kolk, 2019;Mavropoulos and Panagiotidis, 2021;Fox et al, 2019). However, other studies failed to find an inverse J-shaped relationship between fertility and development (Ryabov, 2015;Harknett et al, 2014;Gaddy, 2021).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 86%

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Revisiting the J-shape. Human development and fertility in the United States

Schubert¹,

Dudel²,

Kolobova³

et al. 2023

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Section: Fertility and Development At The National Levelmentioning

confidence: 77%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 86%

Revisiting the J-shape. Human development and fertility in the United States

Schubert¹,

Dudel²,

Kolobova³

et al. 2023

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“…Due to real wage growth, this change, eventually, leads to fertility decline. 2 See, e.g., Bongaarts and Sobotka (2012), Day (2016), Dominiak et al (2015), Futagami and Konishi (2019), Goldstein et al (2009), Hirazawa and Yakita (2017), Lacalle-Calderon et al (2017), Luci and Thévenon (2011), Mavropoulos and Panagiotidis (2021), Myrskylä et al (2009), and Nakagaki (2019), and Ohinata and Varvarigos (2019). , 1960, -2010, the following countries are included: Austria, Australia, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, the UK, and the USA.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Several empirical studies find that such a fertility rebound is driven by labor productivity and female emancipation measured by the gender gap or labor participation(Mavropoulos and Panagiotidis 2021;Nakagaki 2019). Lacalle-Calderon et al (2017) also find that the higher the fertility rate at the start of the demographic transition, the higher the gross domestic product per capita needed to reverse fertility decline.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Social externalities, endogenous childcare costs, and fertility choice

Dzhumashev

Tursunalieva

2022

J Popul Econ

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We reconcile the steep decline in fertility rates during the demographic transition with the fertility rebound observed in recent decades in high-income countries. The micro-foundations of the optimal choice of agents in our expanded model include endogenous childcare costs and social externalities stemming from human capital, consumption, and fertility norms. Combining these factors with the quality-quantity trade-off in fertility choice explains the inverse J-shaped relationship between fertility and economic development. Moreover, the simulated average fertility rates based on the model are reasonably consistent with the observed pattern of the evolution of the cohort fertility rates in high-income countries. Sensitivity analyses show that the model fits historical cohort fertility rates only when it includes the effects of social externalities and endogenous childcare costs.

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Revisiting the J-Shape: Human Development and Fertility in the United States

Schubert,

Dudel,

Kolobova

et al. 2024

Demography

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Economic and social development are closely linked with fertility. Several studies have shown that the relationship follows an inverse J-shape: the association is negative at low and intermediate levels of development and reverses to become positive at high development levels. However, more recent research building on subnational and U.S. data found only mixed evidence for the inverse J-shape. In this article, we draw on subnational data on development and fertility in the U.S. states between 1969 and 2018 to examine the relationship between development and fertility. Using a longitudinal approach and addressing several criticisms of the fertility reversal hypothesis, our results support the inverse J-shaped pattern under most model specifications. However, this pattern might have vanished since the 2007–2008 financial crisis. Our findings provide insights into the mechanisms that link development and fertility, showing that gender equality and economic uncertainty mediate the relationship between development and fertility.

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On the drivers of the fertility rebound

Cited by 3 publications

References 35 publications

Revisiting the J-shape. Human development and fertility in the United States

Revisiting the J-shape. Human development and fertility in the United States

Social externalities, endogenous childcare costs, and fertility choice

Revisiting the J-Shape: Human Development and Fertility in the United States

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