On the emerging relationship between the stratospheric Quasi-Biennial oscillation and the Madden-Julian oscillation

Klotzbach, Phil; Abhik, S.; Hendon, Harry H.; Bell, Michael M.; Lucas, Chris; Marshall, Andrew G.; Oliver, Eric C. J.

doi:10.1038/s41598-019-40034-6

Cited by 53 publications

(94 citation statements)

References 55 publications

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“…Using reconstructions of QBO and MJO indices back to 1905, Klotzbach et al (2019) showed that the observed QBO-MJO relationship has only emerged since the 1980s. They suggest that this emergence may be driven by the recent warming trend in the upper troposphere and cooling trend in the lower stratosphere, which together act to further reduce the stability in the equatorial tropopause, thus making the MJO more active in EQBO winter.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Insignificant QBO‐MJO Prediction Skill Relationship in the SubX and S2S Subseasonal Reforecasts

2019

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The impact of the stratospheric quasi‐biennial oscillation (QBO) on the prediction of the tropospheric Madden‐Julian oscillation (MJO) is evaluated in reforecasts from nine models participating in subseasonal prediction projects, including the Subseasonal Experiment (SubX) and Subseasonal to Seasonal (S2S) projects. When MJO prediction skill is analyzed for December to February, MJO prediction skill is higher in the easterly phase of the QBO than the westerly phase, consistent with previous studies. However, the relationship between QBO phase and MJO prediction skill is not statistically significant for most models. This insignificant QBO‐MJO skill relationship is further confirmed by comparing two subseasonal reforecast experiments with the Community Earth System Model v1 using both a high‐top (46‐level) and low‐top (30‐level) version of the Community Atmosphere Model v5. While there are clear differences in the forecasted QBO between the two model top configurations, a negligible change is shown in the MJO prediction, indicating that the QBO in this model may not directly control the MJO prediction and supporting the insignificant QBO‐MJO skill relationship found in SubX and S2S models.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Insignificant QBO‐MJO Prediction Skill Relationship in the SubX and S2S Subseasonal Reforecasts

2019

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“…The strength of the MJO can be influenced by the QBO, and thus the MJO-related teleconnection changes in QBO easterly and westerly years [29]. The MJO tends to be stronger in the easterly wind phase of the QBO (QBOE) than the westerly wind phase of the QBO (QBOW), which may be attributed to the change in the static stability at the tropopause caused by the [31][32][33]. The QBO can be linked to the stratospheric polar vortex through upward propagation of planetary waves and the interaction between the stratospheric zonal mean zonal wind and the planetary waves [27].…”

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confidence: 99%

Modulation of the Westerly and Easterly Quasi-Biennial Oscillation Phases on the Connection between the Madden–Julian Oscillation and the Arctic Oscillation

Song

2020

Atmosphere

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Previous studies have revealed the relationship between the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) and the Arctic Oscillation (AO). The MJO phase 2/3 is followed by the positive AO phase, and the MJO phase 6/7 is followed by the negative AO phase. This study reveals that the MJO phase 6/7-AO connection is modulated by the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) through both tropospheric and stratospheric pathways during boreal winter. The MJO 2/3 phase and AO relationship is favored in both QBO easterly (QBOE) and westerly (QBOW) years because of the MJO-triggered tropospheric Rossby wave train from the tropics toward the polar region. The AO following the MJO 6/7 phase shifts to negative in QBOW years, but the MJO-AO connection diminishes in QBOE years. In QBOW years, the Asian-Pacific jet is enhanced, leading to more evident poleward propagation of tropospheric Rossby wave train, which contributes to the tropospheric pathway of the AO-MJO 6/7 connection. Besides, the enhanced Asian-Pacific jet in QBOW years is favorable for vertical propagation of planetary waves into the stratosphere in MJO phase 6/7, leading to negative AO, which indicates the stratospheric pathway of the AO-MJO 6/7 connection.Atmosphere 2020, 11, 175 2 of 13 response [17,18] that propagates poleward and eastward and modulates the atmospheric Pacific-North America (PNA)-like teleconnection pattern [19] over the North Pacific and North Atlantic. The MJO can also influence the AO [12]. The MJO can also modify the meridional heat flux that is in phase with climatological stationary waves over the North Pacific, which interferes constructively with climatological stationary waves and induces vertical propagation of planetary waves into the stratosphere, contributing to the polar vortex variation [20][21][22][23]. The anomalous signal of the stratospheric polar vortex propagates downward and influences the tropospheric AO [24].Both the MJO and the AO are associated with the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO), which manifests as alternating easterly and westerly zonal winds over the stratospheric tropics on the time scale of 2.5 years [25][26][27]. During boreal winter, about 40% of the interannual variation of the MJO is contributed by the QBO [28][29][30]. The strength of the MJO can be influenced by the QBO, and thus the MJO-related teleconnection changes in QBO easterly and westerly years [29]. The MJO tends to be stronger in the easterly wind phase of the QBO (QBOE) than the westerly wind phase of the QBO (QBOW), which may be attributed to the change in the static stability at the tropopause caused by the [31][32][33]. The QBO can be linked to the stratospheric polar vortex through upward propagation of planetary waves and the interaction between the stratospheric zonal mean zonal wind and the planetary waves [27]. The variation of the stratospheric polar vortex can influence the AO by downward propagation of stratospheric anomalous signals [24]. The zero-wind line at 50 hPa differs in the easterly and westerly QBO phases, which leads to a difference in the u...

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“…It is noteworthy that the QBO influences the breakdown of stratospheric polar vortices during the winter and that the polar vortex in the stratosphere, affects surface weather patterns [27]. [29] goes further to argue that when the QBO is easterly (QBOE) or negative phase in the lower stratosphere, stronger Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) activity is likely during the northern hemisphere winter. This relationship they argue has become more evident since the 1980s when a cooling trend in the equatorial lower stratosphere and a warming trend in the equatorial upper troposphere became more evident.…”

Section: The Quasi-biennial Oscillation (Qbo)mentioning

confidence: 98%

Investigating the Apparent Teleconnection between Cosmic-Ray Muon Flux over Jamaica and Large-Scale Climate Phenomena That Impact the Caribbean

Brown¹,

Charlery²,

Voutchkov³

2019

ACS

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The apparent teleconnection between cosmic-ray muon flux over a base point in the Caribbean is discussed against the background of an extensive record of indices representing large-scale climatic phenomena, but limited cosmic-ray muon flux data. Many investigators have shown that large-scale climate phenomena influence sub-seasonal and seasonal climate variability, especially in the northern hemisphere and their impacts on the Caribbean are well documented. These climatic phenomena that impact the Caribbean include, but are not limited to, the El Nino Southern Oscillation, the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation, and the Arctic Oscillation which is now being investigated. Although strong statistical correlation between variables over non-contiguous regions are not absolute as proof of teleconnections, the correlation strength can be used as an indication of its existence. The data gathered at the Mona Campus of the University of the West Indies, in Jamaica, using a simple QuarkNet 6000 muon detector over the period September 2011 to September 2013, showed an apparent significant relationship with these climatic indices. This suggests that cosmic-ray muon flux might be linked to the behavior of the climate phenomena and therefore can be used as a climate or meteorological index over the Caribbean.

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On the emerging relationship between the stratospheric Quasi-Biennial oscillation and the Madden-Julian oscillation

Cited by 53 publications

References 55 publications

Insignificant QBO‐MJO Prediction Skill Relationship in the SubX and S2S Subseasonal Reforecasts

Insignificant QBO‐MJO Prediction Skill Relationship in the SubX and S2S Subseasonal Reforecasts

Modulation of the Westerly and Easterly Quasi-Biennial Oscillation Phases on the Connection between the Madden–Julian Oscillation and the Arctic Oscillation

Investigating the Apparent Teleconnection between Cosmic-Ray Muon Flux over Jamaica and Large-Scale Climate Phenomena That Impact the Caribbean

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