After exhibiting an upward trend since 1979, Antarctic sea ice extent (SIE) declined dramatically during austral spring 2016, reaching a record low by December 2016. Here we show that a combination of atmospheric and oceanic phenomena played primary roles for this decline. The anomalous atmospheric circulation was initially driven by record strength tropical convection over the Indian and western Pacific Oceans, which resulted in a wave-3 circulation pattern around Antarctica that acted to reduce SIE in the Indian Ocean, Ross and Bellingshausen Sea sectors. Subsequently, the polar stratospheric vortex weakened significantly, resulting in record weakening of the circumpolar surface westerlies that acted to decrease SIE in the Indian Ocean and Pacific Ocean sectors. These processes appear to reflect unusual internal atmosphere-ocean variability. However, the warming trend of the tropical Indian Ocean, which may partly stem from anthropogenic forcing, may have contributed to the severity of the 2016 SIE decline.

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) during boreal winter is more active and propagates eastward farther into the western Pacific during the easterly phase of quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). Using atmospheric reanalyses for 1980-2012, we show that the MJO-induced upper tropospheric positive temperature anomaly and overriding cold cap anomaly are stronger and more in-phase with the equatorial MJO-convective anomaly during the easterly phase of the QBO. These temperature anomalies combine to destabilize the upper troposphere more in-phase with MJO convection, thus acting to promote stronger MJO convection during the easterly phase of the QBO especially eastward of the Maritime Continent. This enhanced destabilization is promoted by the negative temperature anomaly at the tropopause resulting from the QBO during its easterly phase. These findings can account for the enhanced strength and farther eastward propagation of the MJO during the easterly phase of the QBO, but await confirmation by theoretical and modeling studies that can isolate these effects.Plain Language Summary The tropical Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is observed to be more active and predictable during boreal winter when the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is in its easterly phase in the lower stratosphere. However, the mechanism by which the QBO affects the MJO has yet to be elucidated. We show using reanalyses for the period 1980-2012 that the vertical structure of the MJO near the equator is different during QBO easterly and westerly phases and that these differences are consistent with stronger MJO convection during easterly phases of the QBO. The proposed mechanism is via a combination of MJO-induced and QBO-induced reduction in stability at the tropopause during easterly phases of the QBO, which act to destabilize and strengthen MJO convection. These findings provide further insight into the mechanism of the MJO and can be used to guide improved representation and prediction of the MJO with forecast models.

A strong relationship between the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) of equatorial stratospheric winds and the amplitude of the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) during the boreal winter has recently been uncovered using observational data from the mid-1970s to the present. When the QBO is in its easterly phase in the lower stratosphere, it favors stronger MJO activity during boreal winter, while the MJO tends to be weaker during the westerly phase of the QBO. Here we show using reconstructed indices of the MJO and QBO back to 1905 that the relationship between enhanced boreal winter MJO activity and the easterly phase of the QBO has only emerged since the early 1980s. The emergence of this relationship coincides with the recent cooling trend in the equatorial lower stratosphere and the warming trend in the equatorial upper troposphere, which appears to have sensitized MJO convective activity to QBO-induced changes in static stability near the tropopause. Climate change is thus suggested to have played a role in promoting coupling between the MJO and the QBO.

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