On the epochal variation of intensity of tropical cyclones in the Arabian Sea

Rajeevan, M.; Srinivasan, J.; Kumar, Kondapalli Niranjan; Gnanaseelan, C.; Ali, M. M.

doi:10.1002/asl2.447

Cited by 58 publications

(41 citation statements)

References 23 publications

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“…() identified that the tropical cyclones in the Arabian Sea gets intensified by the emissions of aerosols, which is on a positive trend considering the climate change issues. The increasing intensity of tropical cyclones in the Arabian Sea has also been verified in a few other studies (e.g., Rajeevan et al ., ; Evan and Camargo, ).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The climatology of shamals in the Arabian Sea—Part 1: Surface winds

Aboobacker¹,

Shanas²

2018

Intl Journal of Climatology

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This study describes the climatology of shamal winds in the Arabian Sea using recent 30 years of ERA-Interim winds. The shamal events were distinguished based on the typical directions, duration and intensity of the winds. Three potential zones of shamal winds were identified in the northwestern Arabian Sea, which are the areas where the predominant shamal swells have been generated. The number of events, duration and intensity of shamal winds were estimated for various months and years. The climatology and trends of shamal winds were derived and the spatial extent of the winds was assessed. The results show that the number of events and the duration of shamals decrease in the northwestern Arabian Sea. Contrasting trends have been observed in the shamal intensities-significant positive trends in the Gulf of Oman and significant negative trends along the east coast of Oman. The trends of the total winds are in contrast with those of the shamals winds.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The climatology of shamals in the Arabian Sea—Part 1: Surface winds

Aboobacker¹,

Shanas²

2018

Intl Journal of Climatology

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“…[] and Rajeevan et al . []. A 10 year running mean through the data across the SCTR region shows that VITC frequency, SST and T dy have increased throughout the 1980–2010 period as has the Power Dissipation Index.…”

Section: Summary and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The analysis performed here suggests that an important change occurred after the 1997/1998 El Nin~o, consistent with Manatsa et al [2012] who provided evidence that a turning point in the climate of the Indian Ocean occurred around this time. An epochal variability of T dy trends pre-1997/1998 and post-1997/1998 shows large areas of decreasing trend near Madagascar pre-1997 and an increasing trend in the Mozambique channel and in the central tropical South Indian Ocean after 1998, consistent with Goni et al [2010] and Rajeevan et al [2013]. A 10 year running mean through the data across the SCTR region shows that VITC frequency, SST and T dy have increased throughout the 1980-2010 period as has the Power Dissipation Index.…”

Section: Summary and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Variability of upper‐ocean characteristics and tropical cyclones in the South West Indian Ocean

Mawren

Reason

2017

JGR Oceans

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Track and intensity are key aspects of tropical cyclone behavior. Intensity may be impacted by the upper‐ocean heat content relevant for TC intensification (known as Tdy) and barrier layer thickness (BLT). Here the variability of Tdy and BLT in the South West Indian Ocean and their relationships with tropical cyclones are investigated. It is shown that rapid cyclone intensification is influenced by large Tdy values, thick barrier layers and the presence of anticyclonic eddies. For TC generation in the South West Indian Ocean, the parameter Tdy was found to be important. Large BLT values overlay with large Tdy values during summer. Both fields are modulated by the westward propagation of Rossby waves, which are often associated with ENSO. For example, the 1997–1998 El Niño shows a strong signal in Tdy, SST, and BLT over the South West Indian Ocean. After this event, an increasing trend in Tdy occurred over most of the basin which may be associated with changes in atmospheric circulation. Increasing SST, Power Dissipation Index and frequency of Category 5 tropical cyclones also occurred from 1980 to 2010. To further examine the links between tropical cyclones, Tdy, and BLT, the ocean response to Category 5 Tropical Cyclone Bansi that developed near Madagascar during January 2015 was analyzed. Its unusual track was found to be linked with the strengthening of the monsoonal north westerlies while its rapid intensification from Category 2 to Category 4 was linked to a high‐Tdy region, associated with a warm core eddy and large BLT.

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“…This interpretation has been debated (Wang et al 2012;Evan et al 2012). Rajeevan et al (2013) document multidecadal variations in Arabian Sea pre-monsoon TC activity, wind shear, and upper-ocean temperatures since 1955 and interpret these as arising from natural variability. Evan et al (2011) is not an explicit TC simulation study and no clear demonstration was made that the TC intensity changes were highly unusual compared to natural variability.…”

Section: Case Studies: Changes In Arabian Seamentioning

confidence: 99%

Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change Assessment: Part I: Detection and Attribution

Knutson

Camargo

Chan

et al. 2019

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

443

305

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An assessment was made of whether detectable changes in tropical cyclone (TC) activity are identifiable in observations and whether any changes can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change. Overall, historical data suggest detectable TC activity changes in some regions associated with TC track changes, while data quality and quantity issues create greater challenges for analyses based on TC intensity and frequency. A number of specific published conclusions (case studies) about possible detectable anthropogenic influence on TCs were assessed using the conventional approach of preferentially avoiding type I errors (i.e., overstating anthropogenic influence or detection). We conclude there is at least low to medium confidence that the observed poleward migration of the latitude of maximum intensity in the western North Pacific is detectable, or highly unusual compared to expected natural variability. Opinion on the author team was divided on whether any observed TC changes demonstrate discernible anthropogenic influence, or whether any other observed changes represent detectable changes. The issue was then reframed by assessing evidence for detectable anthropogenic influence while seeking to reduce the chance of type II errors (i.e., missing or understating anthropogenic influence or detection). For this purpose, we used a much weaker “balance of evidence” criterion for assessment. This leads to a number of more speculative TC detection and/or attribution statements, which we recognize have substantial potential for being false alarms (i.e., overstating anthropogenic influence or detection) but which may be useful for risk assessment. Several examples of these alternative statements, derived using this approach, are presented in the report.

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On the epochal variation of intensity of tropical cyclones in the Arabian Sea

Cited by 58 publications

References 23 publications

The climatology of shamals in the Arabian Sea—Part 1: Surface winds

The climatology of shamals in the Arabian Sea—Part 1: Surface winds

Variability of upper‐ocean characteristics and tropical cyclones in the South West Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change Assessment: Part I: Detection and Attribution

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