2022
DOI: 10.2151/jmsj.2022-050
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On the Existence of the Predictability Barrier in the Wintertime Stratospheric Polar Vortex: Intercomparison of Two Stratospheric Sudden Warmings in 2009 and 2010 Winters

Abstract: To compare the predictability of two stratospheric sudden warming (SSW) events occurring in 2009 and 2010, ensemble forecast experiments are conducted using an Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM). It is found that the predictable period of the vortex splitting SSW in 2009 is about 7 days which is much shorter than that of the vortex-displacement SSW in 2010. The latter event is predictable more than 13 days in advance. The ensemble spread in the upper stratosphere for medium-range forecasts is found t… Show more

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