We evaluated the incidence of thyroid cancer in patients with adenomatous goiter and investigated the clinical factors distinguishing patients with occult thyroid cancer, defined as a tumor size smaller than or equal to 10 mm, from those with clinical thyroid cancer, defined as a tumor size larger than 10 mm. Of 835 patients with histologically confirmed adenomatous goiter, 256 (30.7%) also had thyroid cancer, being occult in 137 patients and clinical in 119 patients. There was no correlation between the maximum size of the thyroid cancer tumor and the age of the patient, and the percentage of patients with thyroid cancer in each group was not influenced by age. There were no significant differences in age, sex, the serum concentrations of free triiodothyronine, free thyroxine, thyrotropin, and thyroglobulin, or the urinary iodine creatinine ratio. The frequency of calcified lesions being detected by ultrasonography (US) and/or neck X-ray in the patients with clinical thyroid cancer was significantly greater than that in those with occult cancer at 83% vs 57%, respectively (P < 0.0001). This study disclosed a high prevalence of thyroid cancer associated with adenomatous goiter, and the results suggest that a considerable number of associated carcinomas remain occult. The detection of calcification in the thyroid gland is one of the surgical indications for patients with adenomatous goiter.

The effect of stratospheric radiative damping time scales on stratospheric variability and on stratospheretroposphere coupling is investigated in a simplified global circulation model by modifying the vertical profile of radiative damping in the stratosphere while holding it fixed in the troposphere. Perpetual-January conditions are imposed, with sinusoidal topography of zonal wavenumber 1 or 2.The depth and duration of the simulated sudden stratospheric warmings closely track the lower-stratospheric radiative time scales. Simulations with the most realistic profiles of radiative damping exhibit extended timescale recoveries analogous to polar-night jet oscillation (PJO) events, which are observed to follow sufficiently deep stratospheric warmings. These events are characterized by weak lower-stratospheric winds and enhanced stability near the tropopause, which persist for up to 3 months following the initial warming. They are obtained with both wave-1 and wave-2 topography. Planetary-scale Eliassen-Palm (EP) fluxes entering the vortex are also suppressed, which is in agreement with observed PJO events.Consistent with previous studies, the tropospheric jets shift equatorward in response to the warmings. The duration of the shift is closely correlated with the period of enhanced stability. The magnitude of the shift in these runs, however, is sensitive only to the zonal wavenumber of the topography. Although the shift is sustained primarily by synoptic-scale eddies, the net effect of the topographic form drag and the planetary-scale fluxes is not negligible; they damp the surface wind response but enhance the vertical shear. The tropospheric response may also reduce the generation of planetary waves, further extending the stratospheric dynamical time scales.

Tropical tropospheric responses to a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event that occurred over Antarctica in September 2019 have been investigated by conducting a series of ensemble forecast experiments. Comparative examinations between the normal forecast and the partially nudged forecast, whose stratospheric circulation is constrained to a reanalysis, reveal a significant enhancement/suppression in the convective activity (upwelling/downwelling) over the northern/southern part of the tropics. Such an acceleration of the Hadley circulation is set up by thermal structural changes in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. The tropical cooling caused by the enhanced Brewer‐Dobson circulation destabilizes the environment there and stimulates deep cumulus convections. In this case, the southern area of the Asian monsoon region is particularly sensitive. Although details of the triggered response depend on the adopted cumulus parameterization scheme, a boosting tendency of the convective upwelling via the SSW is robust.

A series of ensemble reforecast experiments is conducted to investigate the predictability and the occurrence mechanism of a stratospheric sudden warming occurred in late January 2009, which is a typical polar vortex splitting event. To fully examine the rapid vortex splitting evolution and predictability variation, ensemble forecasts are carried out every day during January 2009. The vortex splitting event is reliably predicted by forecasts initialized after 6 days prior to the vortex breakup. It is also found that the propagating property of planetary waves within the stratosphere is a key to the successful prediction for the vortex splitting event. Planetary waves incoming from the troposphere are reflected back into the troposphere for failed forecasts, whereas they are absorbed within the stratosphere for succeeded forecasts. Composite analysis reveals the following reflection process of planetary waves for the failed forecast: Upward propagation of planetary wave activity from a tropospheric blocking over Alaska is weaker during initial prediction periods; then, the deceleration of the zonal wind in the upper stratosphere becomes weaker over Europe, which produces a preferable condition for the wave reflection; hence, subsequently incoming wave activity from the troposphere over Europe is reflected back over the Siberia inducing the eastward phase tilt of planetary waves, which shuts down the further upward propagation of planetary waves leading to the vortex splitting. Thus, this study shows that the stratospheric condition would be another important control factor for the occurrence of the vortex splitting event, besides anomalous tropospheric circulations enforcing upward propagation of planetary waves.It is also well known that SSWs are classified into the following two types based on the synoptic structure of the stratospheric circulation: "vortex displacement" type characterized by a shift of the polar vortex off the pole and "vortex splitting" type in which the polar vortex breaks up into two pieces [Charlton and Polvani, 2007]. It has been also revealed by several studies based on the composite of reanalysis data sets that the NOGUCHI ET AL.PREDICTABILITY OF VORTEX SPLITTING EVENT 3388