[1] The dynamical impact of the 11-year solar cycle is investigated with the focus on the stratopause region where solar ultraviolet heating is greatest. The most important variation in solar forcing longer than the diurnal cycle is the annual cycle. Thus the climatological features of the zonal wind variation associated with the annual cycle were first studied to characterize the basic features of the atmosphere's dynamical response to changes in solar radiative forcing. The 11-year solar cycle effect was then investigated. The results of the analysis suggest that in a climatological mean state the stratopause circulation evolves from a radiatively controlled state to one dynamically controlled during winter in both hemispheres. The transition period is characterized by a poleward shift of the westerly jet. The solar cycle effect appears as a change in the balance between the radiatively and dynamically controlled states. The radiatively controlled state lasts longer during the solar maximum phase, and the stratopause subtropical jet reaches a higher speed. The large dynamical response to relatively weak radiative forcing may be understood by the bimodal nature of the winter atmosphere due to interaction with meridionaly propagating planetary waves and zonal mean zonal winds. It is suggested that the solar influence produced in the upper stratosphere and stratopause region is transmitted to the lower stratosphere through (1) modulation of the internal mode of variation in the polar night jet and (2) a change in the Brewer-Dobson circulation. The first process is significant in the middle and high latitudes, whereas the latter is prominent in the equatorial region.
[1] The surface response to 11 year solar cycle variations is investigated by analyzing the long-term mean sea level pressure and sea surface temperature observations for the period 1870-2010. The analysis reveals a statistically significant 11 year solar signal over Europe, and the North Atlantic provided that the data are lagged by a few years. The delayed signal resembles the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) following a solar maximum. The corresponding sea surface temperature response is consistent with this. A similar analysis is performed on long-term climate simulations from a coupled ocean-atmosphere version of the Hadley Centre model that has an extended upper lid so that influences of solar variability via the stratosphere are well resolved. The model reproduces the positive NAO signal over the Atlantic/European sector, but the lag of the surface response is not well reproduced. Possible mechanisms for the lagged nature of the observed response are discussed.
[1] So far, general circulation model studies have not been able to capture the magnitude and characteristics of the observed 11-year solar signal in the stratosphere satisfactorily. Here results from model experiments with the Freie Universität Berlin Climate Middle Atmosphere Model are presented that are in considerable agreement with observations. The experiments used realistic spectral solar irradiance changes, ozone changes from a two-dimensional radiative-chemical-transport model, and a relaxation toward observed equatorial wind profiles throughout the stratosphere. During Northern Hemisphere winter a realistic poleward downward propagation of the polar night jet (PNJ) anomalies, significantly weaker planetary wave activity, and a weaker mean meridional circulation under solar maximum conditions are reproduced in the model. The observed interaction between the Sun and the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) is captured and stratospheric warmings occur preferentially in the west phase of the QBO. Only the magnitude of the anomalies during the dynamically active season improves, whereas the summer signal and the signal at low latitudes are still too weak. The results emphasize the important role of equatorial winds in achieving a more realistic solar signal by producing a more realistic wind climatology. Furthermore, they confirm recent results that equatorial winds in the upper stratosphere, the region dominated by the Semiannual Oscillation, are an important factor in determining interannual variability of the PNJ.
[1] The 11-year solar cycles in ozone and temperature are examined using new simulations of coupled chemistry climate models. The results show a secondary maximum in stratospheric tropical ozone, in agreement with satellite observations and in contrast with most previously published simulations. The mean model response varies by up to about 2.5% in ozone and 0.8 K in temperature during a typical solar cycle, at the lower end of the observed ranges of peak responses. Neither the upper atmospheric effects of energetic particles nor the presence of the quasi biennial oscillation is necessary to simulate the lower stratospheric response in the observed low latitude ozone concentration. Comparisons are also made between model simulations and observed total column ozone. As in previous studies, the model simulations agree well with observations. For those models which cover the full temporal range 1960-2005, the ozone solar signal below 50 hPa changes substantially from the first two solar cycles to the last two solar cycles. Further investigation suggests that this difference is due to an aliasing between the sea surface temperatures and the solar cycle during the first part of the period. The relationship between these results and the overall structure in the tropical solar ozone response is discussed. Further understanding of solar processes requires improvement in the observations of the vertically varying and column integrated ozone.
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