On the Impact of WRF Model Vertical Grid Resolution on Midwest Summer Rainfall Forecasts

Aligo, Eric; Gallus, William A.; Segal, M.

doi:10.1175/2008waf2007101.1

Cited by 62 publications

(29 citation statements)

References 36 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…This result is consistent with the findings of Aligo et al (2010), who also suggested that low vertical resolution in the initial and boundary conditions could be the reason for this counterintuitive finding.…”

Section: -Hr Total and Basin-averaged Comparisonssupporting

confidence: 92%

“…This result is consistent with the findings of Tan (2010), but the errors of her study are less than the findings of the 15 current one because 41 vertical levels are used in this study, where as she used only 28. It is assumed that this unexpected result is obtained as a result of either the low vertical resolution of the initial and boundary conditions or more frequent grid cell saturation calculation as the levels are increased (Aligo et al, 2010).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Microphysics parameterization sensitivity of the WRF Model version 3.1.7 to extreme precipitation: evaluation of the 1997 New Year’s flood of California

Tan

2016

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract.Providing high accuracy in quantitative extreme precipitation forecasting (QEPF) is still a challenge. California is vulnerable to extreme precipitation, which occurs due to atmospheric rivers and might be more intense with climate change. Accordingly, this study is an attempt to evaluate the extreme precipitation forecasting performance of a QPF model, the Weather Research and Forecast 10 Model, version 3.1.7, for the extreme precipitation event that caused the 1997 New Year's flood in IntroductionThe IPCC noted that the magnitude, frequency, and duration of extreme events may increase as a result of climate change (2012). This impact could be significant for regions such as California where drought intensities also tend to increase and excessive amounts of precipitation should therefore be saved for future periods of drought. When drought causes these regions to take one step back, extreme 10 precipitation events can take them two steps forward. Hence, smart and new water management strategies should be developed to advance climate change adaptation. Some of the solutions might be related to improving the time and space problem of quantitative extreme precipitation forecasting (QEPF). The Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) (Skamarock et al., 2008) has been widely used to increase resilience to extreme precipitation events in California (Jankov et al., 2007; 15 Jankov et al., 2009; Tan, 2010;Eiserloh and Chiao, 2014), which are closely correlated with atmospheric river events (Tan, 2010). Atmospheric rivers are also expected to increase in terms of both frequency and intensity with climate change (Dettinger, 2011). Generally, for precipitation simulations, a combination of the microphysical, cumulus parameterization and the planetary boundary layer parameterization schemes is mainly evaluated using the WRF Model, although all of the 20 parameterization schemes and processes have effects on precipitation occurrence. Moreover, microphysical schemes play a significant role if the horizontal resolution of the interested domain is finer than 9 km. Recent studies have been conducted for the evaluation of the microphysics schemes of the WRF Model with respect to winter precipitation in California, with a focus on atmospheric river phenomena (Jankov et al., 2007;Jankov et al., 2009; Tan, 2010;Jankov et al., 2011;Han et al., 2013), 25 which is the reason for the extreme precipitation that occurs along the West coast of the US (Zhu and Newell, 1998;Ralph et al., 2004; Tan, 2010;Houze, 2012). Jankov et al. (2007) Hereupon, the main goal of this study is to evaluate hourly quantitative extreme precipitation forecasting (QEPF) performance of the WRF Model for the most extreme atmospheric river event in the history of California. The 1997 New Year's flood, which occurred between December 26, 1996, and 20 January 3, 1997, has been ranked as the fifth of California's top 15 weather events in the 1900s (URL-1) and is still the major impactful atmospheric river event of the state. Thus, the 1997 New Year...

show abstract

Section: -Hr Total and Basin-averaged Comparisonssupporting

confidence: 92%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Microphysics parameterization sensitivity of the WRF Model version 3.1.7 to extreme precipitation: evaluation of the 1997 New Year’s flood of California

Tan

2016

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Examination of the sensitivity of moist convection to variations in vertical resolution is relatively scarce in the literature. However, based on the results of Aligo et al (2009), it does not appear that forecasts of deep moist convection are systematically improved by increasing vertical resolution, provided that the vertical resolution is a few hundred meters or less. This contrasts with the well-known consistency of vertical and horizontal resolutions needed to avoid spurious oscillations in baroclinic waves and fronts (Lindzen and Fox-Rabinovitz 1989;Persson and Warner 1991).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Does Increased Horizontal Resolution Improve Hurricane Wind Forecasts?

Davis

Wang

Dudhia

et al. 2010

Weather and Forecasting

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The representation of tropical cyclone track, intensity, and structure in a set of 69 parallel forecasts performed at each of two horizontal grid increments with the Advanced Research Hurricane (AHW) component of the Weather and Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) is evaluated. These forecasts covered 10 Atlantic tropical cyclones: 6 from the 2005 season and 4 from 2007. The forecasts were integrated from identical initial conditions produced by a cycling ensemble Kalman filter. The high-resolution forecasts used moving, stormcentered nests of 4-and 1.33-km grid spacing. The coarse-resolution forecasts consisted of a single 12-km domain (which was identical to the outer domain in the forecasts with nests). Forecasts were evaluated out to 120 h. Novel verification techniques were developed to evaluate forecasts of wind radii and the degree of storm asymmetry. Intensity (maximum wind) and rapid intensification, as well as wind radii, were all predicted more accurately with increased horizontal resolution. These results were deemed to be statistically significant based on the application of bootstrap confidence intervals. No statistically significant differences emerged regarding storm position errors between the two forecasts. Coarse-resolution forecasts tended to overpredict the extent of winds compared to high-resolution forecasts. The asymmetry of gale-force winds was better predicted in the coarser-resolution simulation, but asymmetry of hurricane-force winds was predicted better at high resolution. The skill of the wind radii forecasts decayed gradually over 120 h, suggesting a synoptic-scale control of the predictability of outer winds.

show abstract

“…However, doubling the number of vertical levels from 31 to 62 did not enhance quantitative precipitation forecasts in the central US [58]. Based on previous configurations [59,60], Saide et al [39] proposed an optimal density of 39 vertical levels in the study region, with a first layer at 10 m and six levels below 100 m, which allowed the best forecasting of wind speed, temperature and chemical compound concentrations.…”

Section: Simulation Domains and Topography Complexitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model for Precipitation Forecasting in an Andean Region with Complex Topography

Yáñez‐Morroni

Gironás

Caneo³

et al. 2018

Atmosphere

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract:The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model has been successfully used in weather prediction, but its ability to simulate precipitation over areas with complex topography is not optimal. Consequently, WRF has problems forecasting rainfall events over Chilean mountainous terrain and foothills, where some of the main cities are located, and where intense rainfall occurs due to cutoff lows. This work analyzes an ensemble of microphysics schemes to enhance initial forecasts made by the Chilean Weather Agency in the front range of Santiago. We first tested different vertical levels resolution, land use and land surface models, as well as meteorological forcing (GFS/FNL). The final ensemble configuration considered three microphysics schemes and lead times over three rainfall events between 2015 and 2017. Cutoff low complex meteorological characteristics impede the temporal simulation of rainfall properties. With three days of lead time, WRF properly forecasts the rainiest N-hours and temperatures during the event, although more accuracy is obtained when the rainfall is caused by a meteorological frontal system. Finally, the WSM6 microphysics option had the best performance, although further analysis using other storms and locations in the area are needed to strengthen this result.

show abstract

On the Impact of WRF Model Vertical Grid Resolution on Midwest Summer Rainfall Forecasts

Cited by 62 publications

References 36 publications

Microphysics parameterization sensitivity of the WRF Model version 3.1.7 to extreme precipitation: evaluation of the 1997 New Year’s flood of California

Microphysics parameterization sensitivity of the WRF Model version 3.1.7 to extreme precipitation: evaluation of the 1997 New Year’s flood of California

Does Increased Horizontal Resolution Improve Hurricane Wind Forecasts?

Using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model for Precipitation Forecasting in an Andean Region with Complex Topography

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About