On the intensification and recurvature of tropical cyclone Tracy (1974)

Davidson, Noel E.

doi:10.22499/2.6003.005

Cited by 5 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 18 publications

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“…At this stage the system is relatively large in size with closed contours of geopotential heights about 10° longitude in diameter . The size of this low is huge when compared to tropical cyclone Tracy (1974), which devastated Darwin on Christmas Day (Davidson, and references therein). The radius of gales in the case of Tracy was merely 50 km.…”

Section: Low Development As Seen In the Ecmwf Analysesmentioning

confidence: 99%

A case‐study of a monsoon low that formed over the sea and intensified over land as seen in ECMWF analyses

Kilroy

Smith

Montgomery

et al. 2016

Quart J Royal Meteoro Soc

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A case‐study is presented of a tropical low that formed near Darwin, Australia, during the monsoon and subsequently intensified over land. The study is based on European Centre for Medium‐range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) analyses. Interpretations of the formation over the sea are given in terms of vorticity dynamics. The thermodynamic support for the intensification and maintenance of the low over land is investigated also. The analyses indicate that the intensification of the low depends on repeated bursts of deep convection occurring near the centre of the circulation that promote the further concentration of vorticity near the centre. This concentration of vorticity increases the local circulation about the centre, which amounts to increasing the local tangential wind speed and, through approximate gradient wind balance above the boundary layer, to a lowering of the central pressure. It is found that the horizontal transport of moisture into a mesoscale column centred on the low is approximately equal to the moisture lost by precipitation, so that total precipitable water levels are not rapidly depleted over land. While the contribution to the overall moisture budget by surface fluxes is comparatively small, these fluxes are necessary to maintain conditionally unstable conditions near the vortex centre so that deep convective bursts can continue to occur there, even when the system is located far inland.

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Section: Low Development As Seen In the Ecmwf Analysesmentioning

confidence: 99%

A case‐study of a monsoon low that formed over the sea and intensified over land as seen in ECMWF analyses

Kilroy

Smith

Montgomery

et al. 2016

Quart J Royal Meteoro Soc

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show abstract

“…Krishnamurti et al 1981). This development has been shown nicely through a modelling study by Davidson (2002) as summarised in Fig. 3.…”

Section: Formation Size Intensification and Trackmentioning

confidence: 55%

Tracy revisited: historical perspective, synoptics, track and winds

Holland¹

2010

AMOJ

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“…McTaggart-Cowan et al (2007) for Katrina in the Gulf of Mexico and Yamada et al (2010) for Nargis in the Bay of Bengal]. In the Australian region, Tropical Cyclone Tracy, which made landfall at Darwin with tragic loss of life and property on Christmas Eve 1974 (Davidson 2010), is another example. Since then, numerous storms [e.g., Ramsay et al (2009) and Otto (2012) for Larry 2006and, more recently, Yasi (2011] have caused serious property loss, with thankfully much less loss of life.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

ACCESS-TC: Vortex Specification, 4DVAR Initialization, Verification, and Structure Diagnostics

Davidson

Xiao

et al. 2014

Monthly Weather Review

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The Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator (ACCESS) has been adapted for operational and research applications on tropical cyclones. The base system runs at a resolution of 0.118 and 50 levels. The domain is relocatable and nested in coarser-resolution ACCESS forecasts. Initialization consists of five cycles of four-dimensional variational data assimilation (4DVAR) over 24 h. Forecasts to 72 h are made. Without vortex specification, initial conditions usually contain a weak and misplaced circulation pattern. Significant effort has been devoted to building physically based, synthetic inner-core structures, validated using historical dropsonde data and surface analyses from the Atlantic. Based on estimates of central pressure and storm size, vortex specification is used to filter the analyzed circulation from the original analysis, construct an inner core of the storm, locate it to the observed position, and merge it with the large-scale analysis at outer radii.Using all available conventional observations and only synthetic surface pressure observations from the idealized vortex to correct the initial location and structure of the storm, the 4DVAR builds a balanced, intense 3D vortex with maximum wind at the radius of maximum wind and with a well-developed secondary circulation. Mean track and intensity errors for Australian region and northwest Pacific storms have been encouraging, as are recent real-time results from the Australian National Meteorological and Oceanographic Centre. The system became fully operational in November 2011. From preliminary diagnostics, some interesting structure change features are illustrated. Current limitations, future enhancements, and research applications are also discussed.

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On the intensification and recurvature of tropical cyclone Tracy (1974)

Cited by 5 publications

References 18 publications

A case‐study of a monsoon low that formed over the sea and intensified over land as seen in ECMWF analyses

A case‐study of a monsoon low that formed over the sea and intensified over land as seen in ECMWF analyses

Tracy revisited: historical perspective, synoptics, track and winds

ACCESS-TC: Vortex Specification, 4DVAR Initialization, Verification, and Structure Diagnostics

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