On the Issue of Predicting Global Financial and Economic Crises

Danilov, Yury; Pivovarov, Danil; Davydov, Igor

doi:10.26794/2587-5671-2020-24-1-87-104

jour

2020

DOI: 10.26794/2587-5671-2020-24-1-87-104

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On the Issue of Predicting Global Financial and Economic Crises

Yury Danilov

Danil Pivovarov

Igor Davydov

Abstract: Российская академия народного хозяйства и государственной службы (РАНХиГС) при Президенте РФ, Москва, Россия a https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0005-651X; b https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6613-5050; c https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2947-7403 АННОТАЦИЯ Предположения о приближении нового глобального кризиса, все чаще встречающиеся в экспертных дискуссиях, усилили поиски надежных кризисных предикторов, несмотря на существующий теоретический консенсус о принципиальной невозможности прогнозирования кризисов. Цель статьи -опис… Show more

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Cited by 4 publications

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Trends in the development of the financial system during the economic crisis

Vaganova,

Melnikova,

Bykanova

et al. 2024

jour

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Relevance. Due to the relevance of the problem under consideration in modern conditions, when the world is characterized by global financial instability and geo-economic fragmentation, the study of the characteristics of the functioning of the financial system during periods of various financial crises is of particular importance and can contribute to their better understanding.The purpose of the study is to identify trends in the development of the financial system in conditions of the economic crisis.Objectives: In accordance with the goal, the following tasks are predetermined and require solutions: to analyze the impact of global financial crises on the state of the financial system; based on the characteristics of the crises of 1990–1991, 2007–2008, 2020 and 2022 obtained as a result of the analysis, identify patterns of their occurrence and course, compare these crises; justify the findings.Methodology. The article uses general scientific methods of study/cognition, logical-comparative method, cause-and-effect analysis, as well as graphical and tabular methods of reflecting research results.Results. The article examines the impact of global financial crises on the state of the financial system. Based on an analysis of the characteristics of the crises of 1990–1991, 2007–2008, 2020 and 2022, patterns of their occurrence and course were identified. The result of the study is a comparative table of the financial crises of 2008 and 2020, as well as 2020 and 2022. It has been established that the analyzed financial crises, despite significant differences, also have certain similar features.Conclusions. The author's conclusions obtained can be used to predict the development of the financial system and develop Russian public policy in terms of justifying preventive measures to reduce the risks of future crises.

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Trends in the development of the financial system during the economic crisis

Vaganova,

Melnikova,

Bykanova

et al. 2024

jour

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Reasons, consequences, and prevention possibilities of financial crises

Volkov

2024

Vestnik universiteta

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The subject of this research is many conditions that contribute to the emergence of crisis phenomena in the financial and economic spheres. The purpose of the article is to study the causes, consequences, and prevention possibilities of financial crises. Among the methodology used, it is necessary to distinguish the analysis of internet-resources corresponding to the subject of the study, their synthesis and generalisation. The detailed analysis of the concept and causes of financial crises, systematisation of information about the possibilities of their avoidance are the main results of the conducted research. The obtained results can be applied in the development of methodologies and recommendations for the prevention of financial crises with consideration to the current situation as well as in the educational process. The prospects for further research on a given topic include: determination of the dynamics and specifics of the development of financial crises, the main development stages, formulation of forecasts about their occurrence in various economic sectors. In conclusion, we will note that, firstly, financial crises represent one of the integral stages of the development of economic relations both in a single country and in the whole world. Secondly, the causes of financial crises may be explained by using a certain theoretical framework with consideration to modern phenomena and, as a rule, are the result of the introduction of new tools, methods ,and ways of management. Thirdly, in order to increase the effectiveness of leveling the negative impact of financial crises, it’s important to apply the integrated approach which includes the implementation of preventive measures not only within the country, but also at the company level.

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Financial Fear Index in the Digital Financial Assets Market

Ovcharov

Матвеев

2021

jour

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The relevance of the research topic is due to the increasing role of non-traditional financial instruments that contribute to financial instability. Therefore, various indicators are required to reflect the situation in the digital financial assets market, the volatility quotes, and the level of investor confidence. The aim of the study is to develop and test on empirical data a generalized indicator of financial instability (financial fear index) in the digital financial assets market. The novelty of the research lies in the adaptation of the classic model of building the volatility index to the cryptocurrency market.The authors use statistical methods for collecting and processing data, analyzing time series, weighing, designing economic indicators. The paper summarizes the results of modern research on the correlation between digitalization and financial instability. The authors conclude that at certain short periods of 2020 the ruble-dollar volatility was comparable or even higher than the ruble-bitcoin one. In addition, there is much less fear and uncertainty in the cryptocurrency market today than there was at the end of 2018. The main result of the study is the financial fear index model based on the method of calculating the weighted average option price of the underlying asset and hedging of price risks. The model has been tested using data on the bid and ask prices of cryptocurrencies at a specific point in time. Estimates have been obtained indicating the growing instability in the digital financial asset market. The authors offer recommendations regarding the index threshold values, which indicate the level of investors’ fear.

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On the Issue of Predicting Global Financial and Economic Crises

Cited by 4 publications

References 18 publications

Trends in the development of the financial system during the economic crisis

Trends in the development of the financial system during the economic crisis

Reasons, consequences, and prevention possibilities of financial crises

Financial Fear Index in the Digital Financial Assets Market

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