On the Linkage of Large-Scale Climate Variability With Local Characteristics of Daily Precipitation and Temperature Extremes: An Evaluation of Statistical Downscaling Methods

Nguyen, Van‐Thanh‐Van; Nguyen, Tan-Danh; Gachon, Philippe

doi:10.1142/9789812707208_0001

Cited by 24 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 4 publications

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“…It was found that SDSM model consistently outperforms weather generators in most seasons and regions. This point was also confirmed by Nguyen et al (2006). In addition, Diaz-Nieto and demonstrated that the SDSM model has several advantages over conventional 'change factor' methods, in which new temporal sequences of (extreme) events can be generated for future climate scenario assessment.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 59%

Statistical downscaling of extremes of precipitation and temperature and construction of their future scenarios in an elevated and cold zone

Wang

Yang

Shao

et al. 2011

Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess

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Reliable projections of extremes at finer spatial scales are important in assessing the potential impacts of climate change on societal and natural systems, particularly for elevated and cold regions in the Tibetan Plateau. This paper presents future projections of extremes of daily precipitation and temperature, under different future scenarios in the headwater catchment of Yellow River basin over the 21st century, using the statistical downscaling model (SDSM). The results indicate that: (1) although the mean temperature was simulated perfectly, followed by monthly pan evaporation, the skill scores in simulating extreme indices of precipitation are inadequate; (2) The inter-annual variabilities for most extreme indices were underestimated, although the model could reproduce the extreme temperatures well. In fact, the simulation of extreme indices for precipitation and evaporation were not satisfactory in many cases. (3) In future period from 2011 to 2100, increases in the temperature and evaporation indices are projected under a range of climate scenarios, although decreasing mean and maximum precipitation are found in summer during 2020s. The findings of this work will contribute toward a better understanding of future climate changes for this unique region.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 59%

Statistical downscaling of extremes of precipitation and temperature and construction of their future scenarios in an elevated and cold zone

Wang

Yang

Shao

et al. 2011

Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess

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“…GCMs have been recognized to represent the main features of the global circulation of basic climate parameters, however these models so far could not reproduce detailed A c c e p t e d M a n u s c r i p t S.M. Herath et al regional climate conditions at temporal and spatial scales of relevance to hydrological studies (Nguyen et al 2006, Xu 1999. According to the recent literature, spatial and temporal ranges vary in a wide range in the present GCMs and Regional Climate Models (RCMs) (Willems and Vrac 2011).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A spatial temporal downscaling approach to development of IDF relations for Perth airport region in the context of climate change

Herath

Sarukkalige

Nguyen

2016

Hydrological Sciences Journal

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Downscaling of climate projections is the most adapted method to assess the impacts of climate change at regional and local scale. This study utilized both spatial and temporal downscaling approaches to develop Intensity Duration Frequency (IDF) relations for sub-daily rainfall extremes in Perth airport area. Multiple regression based SDSM tool was used to spatial downscaling of daily rainfalls using GCMs' (HadCM3 and CGCM3) climate variables. Simple scaling regime was identified for 30 minutes to 24 hours duration of observed Annual Maximum (AM) rainfalls. Therefore, statistical properties of sub daily AM rainfalls were estimated by scaling invariant model based on the GEV distribution. RMSE, Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient and Percentage bias values were estimated to check the accuracy of downscaled sub daily rainfalls. They proved the capability of proposed approach in developing linkage between large scale GCM's daily variables and extreme sub daily rainfall events at a given location. Finally IDF curves were developed for future periods and it show similar extreme rainfall decreasing trend for 2020s, 2050s and 2080s for both GCMs.

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“…If this linkage could be established, then the projected change of climate conditions given by a GCM could be used to predict the resulting change of the local precipitation characteristics. The required linkage can be developed using a wide range of (statistical and dynamic) downscaling methods (Nguyen et al, 2006).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A statistical approach to downscaling of sub-daily extreme rainfall processes for climate-related impact studies in urban areas

Nguyen

Cung

2007

Water Supply

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This paper presents a spatial-temporal downscaling approach to describe the linkage between large-scale climate variables for daily scale to annual maximum (AM) precipitations for daily and sub-daily scales at a local site. More specifically, the proposed approach is based on a combination of a spatial downscaling method to link large-scale climate variables as provided by General Circulation Model (GCM) simulations with daily extreme precipitations at a local site and a temporal downscaling procedure to describe the relationships between daily extreme precipitations with sub-daily extreme precipitations using the scaling General Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. The feasibility of the proposed downscaling method has been tested based on climate simulation outputs from two GCMs under the A2 scenario (HadCM3A2 and CGCM2A2) and using available AM precipitation data for durations ranging from 5 minutes to 1 day at 15 raingage stations in Quebec (Canada) for the 1961 -1990 period. Results of this numerical application has indicated that it is feasible to link large-scale climate predictors for daily scale given by GCM simulation outputs with daily and sub-daily AM precipitations at a local site. Furthermore, it was found that AM precipitations at a local site downscaled from the HadCM3A2 displayed a small change in the future, while those values estimated from the CGCM2A2 indicated a large increasing trend for future periods.

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On the Linkage of Large-Scale Climate Variability With Local Characteristics of Daily Precipitation and Temperature Extremes: An Evaluation of Statistical Downscaling Methods

Cited by 24 publications

References 4 publications

Statistical downscaling of extremes of precipitation and temperature and construction of their future scenarios in an elevated and cold zone

Statistical downscaling of extremes of precipitation and temperature and construction of their future scenarios in an elevated and cold zone

A spatial temporal downscaling approach to development of IDF relations for Perth airport region in the context of climate change

A statistical approach to downscaling of sub-daily extreme rainfall processes for climate-related impact studies in urban areas

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