On the possible interaction between internal climate variability and forced climate change

Lü, Jianhua; Hu, Aixue; Zeng, Zhen

doi:10.1002/2014gl059908

Cited by 25 publications

(20 citation statements)

References 28 publications

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“…The opposite partial temperature trends, due to the surface latent heat flux and atmospheric heat transport (Fig. 2), indicate the dynamical coupling between the atmosphere and the ocean, which is also observed in the interaction between the forced climate change and the internal climate variability23. Moreover, the trends that resulted from the water vapour, cloud-related processes, and surface sensible heat flux also show apparent differences for the two periods (Supplementary Fig.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 92%

Atmospheric footprint of the recent warming slowdown

Liu

Zhou

2017

Sci Rep

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Growing body of literature has developed to detect the role of ocean heat uptake and transport in the recent warming slowdown between 1998–2013; however, the atmospheric footprint of the slowdown in dynamical and physical processes remains unclear. Here, we divided recent decades into the recent hiatus period and the preceding warming period (1983–1998) to investigate the atmospheric footprint. We use a process-resolving analysis method to quantify the contributions of different processes to the total temperature changes. We show that the increasing rate of global mean tropospheric temperature was also reduced during the hiatus period. The decomposed trends due to physical processes, including surface albedo, water vapour, cloud, surface turbulent fluxes and atmospheric dynamics, reversed the patterns between the two periods. The changes in atmospheric heat transport are coupled with changes in the surface latent heat flux across the lower troposphere (below approximately 800 hPa) and with cloud-related processes in the upper troposphere (above approximately 600 hPa) and were underpinned by strengthening/weakening Hadley Circulation and Walker Circulation during the warming/hiatus period. This dynamical coupling experienced a phase transition between the two periods, reminding us of the importance of understanding the atmospheric footprint, which constitutes an essential part of internal climate variability.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 92%

Atmospheric footprint of the recent warming slowdown

Liu

Zhou

2017

Sci Rep

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“…Generally speaking, there are numerous factors affecting regional precipitation variability, including the climate system variability characteristics (the periodic fluctuation of climate), the global atmospheric circulation patterns (AMO, PDO, etc), the natural geographical environment characteristics (longitude, latitude and altitude), human activities (anthropogenic aerosol) and solar radiation changes, etc (Qian et al 2009, Lu et al 2014, Ma et al 2018b. Therefore, the driving mechanism of extreme precipitation change is also very complicated, and the related researches are also controversial.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatiotemporal variations in extreme precipitation and their potential driving factors in non-monsoon regions of China during 1961–2017

Ding

Wang

2019

Environ. Res. Lett.

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Extreme precipitation events affect the ecological environment and are also important for the sustainable development of regional socioeconomics. Although there are some local studies on extreme precipitation events in which the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of extreme precipitation events in non-monsoon regions (NMRs) are systematically assessed, detailed study on the driving mechanisms of variation are becoming increasingly important. In this study, nine extreme precipitation indices were used to analyze the characteristics of extreme precipitation event spatiotemporal variations in NMRs in China during 1961-2017. The results show that except for the consecutive dry days, which shows a significant decreasing trend (P < 0.01) of −2.33 days/decade, all other indices showed obvious increasing trends, especially the indices of wet day precipitation (PRCPTOT), highest 5 day precipitation (RX5day) and light rain days (R5 mm), with significantly increasing trends (P< 0.01) of 6.80 mm/decade, 0.73 mm/decade and 0.45 days/decade, respectively. In addition, a correlation analysis between altitude, longitude, latitude and extreme precipitation shows that stations at an altitude of more than 3500 m have significant correlations with both extreme precipitation and longitude in NMRs (P< 0.05). In addition, results also indicated that there are significant relationships between extreme precipitation events in NMRs and large-scale ocean-atmosphere circulation patterns (P< 0.05). The rapid increase in extreme precipitation indices over the past 20 years is closely related to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation shift to a warm phase, while the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Summer Monsoon Index show significant correlation with the extreme indices only in certain seasons (P< 0.05).

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“…157), and with the IPCC adopting the term ''hiatus'' in its Fifth Assessment Report (Stocker et al, 2013). The number of scientific papers devoted to this alleged ''hiatus'' is large and growing rapidly (e.g., Allan et al, 2014;Balmaseda et al, 2013;Bao and Ren, 2014;Brown et al, 2014;Cazenave et al, 2014;Chen and Tung, 2014;Clement and DiNezio, 2014;Crowley et al, 2014;de Boissé son et al, 2014;Desbruyè res et al, 2014;Dong and Zhou, 2014;Drijfhout et al, 2014;Easterling and Wehner, 2009;England et al, 2014;Estrada et al, 2013;Fyfe et al, 2013;Fyfe and Gillett, 2014;Goddard, 2014;Guemas et al, 2013;Haywood et al, 2014;Hawkins et al, 2014;Held, 2013;Huber and Knutti, 2014;Hunt, 2011;Kamae et al, 2014;Kaufmann et al, 2011;Kosaka and Xie, 2013;Laepple and Huybers, 2014;Lean and Rind, 2009;Lin et al, 2014;Lorentzen, 2014;Lovejoy, 2014;Lu et al, 2014;Macias et al, 2014;Maher et al, 2014;McGregor et al, 2014;Meehl et al, 2011Meehl et al, , 2013bPalmer and Smith, ...…”

Section: The Scientific Literature and The ''Pause''mentioning

confidence: 99%