On the prediction of the time of occurrence of a slope failure: a review

Federico, Antonio; Popescu, Maria-Cristina; Fidelibus, Corrado; Internò, G.

doi:10.1201/b16816-144

Cited by 21 publications

(17 citation statements)

References 1 publication

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“…The logarithm of acceleration is proportional to the logarithm of the velocity of slope displacement. The validity of this relation was confirmed by investigating landslide failure cases (Picarelli et al 2000;Federico et al 2004). Time integration of Voight's equation for a [ 1 results in the power law:…”

Section: Emergency Assessment Based On Alert Velocity Thresholdsmentioning

confidence: 59%

“…Prediction of landslide failure is an inherently difficult task because of the difficulty in quantifying the temporal evolution of the driving forces and the shear resistances, where both of these are complicated by the effects of rainfall and reservoir water level. Neither the rainfall nor the water level is taken into account by the current models available for predicting the evolution of the sliding behavior (Federico et al 2004;Crosta and Agliardi 2003;Calvello et al Fig. 8 The relationship between cumulative displacement and the reservoir water level 2008).…”

Section: Emergency Assessment Based On Alert Velocity Thresholdsmentioning

confidence: 98%

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Analysis of Baishuihe landslide influenced by the effects of reservoir water and rainfall

2009

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Since the impoundment of the Three Gorges Reservoir in June 2003, a number of new landslides have occurred and existing landslides have been made worse. The 1,260 9 10 4 m 3 Baishuihe landslide, located at 56 km west of the Three Gorges Dam, began to deform more noticeably after the first impoundment in early July 2003. The sliding of the two blocks comprising the landslide, one an active block and the other a relatively stable block, became apparent after approximately 5 years of monitoring. Field recordings show that the landslide displacement is affected by the combined effects of the rainfall and water level in the reservoir. These effects have been investigated in the present paper, including the deformation characteristics (movement pattern, direction, displacement and velocity) earmarking the temporal evolution of the active block. Based on a practical creep model of a large rock slide, alert velocity thresholds for pre-alert, alert and emergency phases have been computed corresponding to the imminence of failure. The alert velocity thresholds are being proposed to be included as a part of an early-warning system of an emergency plan drawn up to minimize the adverse impact in the event of landslide failure. The emergency plan is intended to be implemented as a risk management tool by the relevant authorities of the Three Gorges Reservoir in the near future.

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Section: Emergency Assessment Based On Alert Velocity Thresholdsmentioning

confidence: 59%

Section: Emergency Assessment Based On Alert Velocity Thresholdsmentioning

confidence: 98%

Analysis of Baishuihe landslide influenced by the effects of reservoir water and rainfall

2009

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“…Translational and rotational movements can display different behaviors, from long-term creep to sudden catastrophic movement, without warning (Petley and Allison 1997). Landslide events can be forecasted from creep theory and the analysis of the displacement before the slope failure, i.e., tertiary creep (Saito 1965), with the Hayashi model (Hayashi et al 1988) and the general creep model (Federico et al 2004), or from the linear trend of the inverse displacement rate curve (Voight 1988;Voight 1989;Fukuzono 1990;Petley et al 2002). Landslide displacements can be predicted by curve fitting techniques, e.g., the Verhulst model, the GM (1, 1) model, the exponential smoothing model (Picarelli et al 2000;Li et al 1996;Chen and Wang 1988), and so on.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Displacement prediction in colluvial landslides, Three Gorges Reservoir, China

2012

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The prediction of active landslide displacement is a critical component of an early warning system and helps prevent property damage and loss of human lives. For the colluvial landslides in the Three Gorges Reservoir, the monitored displacement, precipitation, and reservoir level indicated that the characteristics of the deformations were closely related to the seasonal fluctuation of rainfall and reservoir level and that the displacement curve versus time showed a stepwise pattern. Besides the geological conditions, landslide displacement also depended on the variation in the influencing factors. Two typical colluvial landslides, the Baishuihe landslide and the Bazimen landslide, were selected for case studies. To analyze the different response components of the total displacement, the accumulated displacement was divided into a trend and a periodic component using a time series model. For the prediction of the periodic displacement, a back-propagation neural network model was adopted with selected factors including (1) the accumulated precipitation during the last 1-month period, (2) the accumulated precipitation over a 2-month period, (3) change of reservoir level during the last 1month, (4) the average elevation of the reservoir level in the current month, and (5) the accumulated displacement increment during 1year. The prediction of the displacement showed a periodic response in the displacement as a function of the variation of the influencing factors. The prediction model provided a good representation of the measured slide displacement behavior at the Baishuihe and the Bazimen sites, which can be adopted for displacement prediction and early warning of colluvial landslides in the Three Gorges Reservoir.

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“…Time of failure can be determined by curve fitting techniques (Voight and Kennedy 1979;Picarelli et al 2000), or from the linear trend of the inverse rate curve (Voight 1989;Fukuzono 1990). A summary of the different methods proposed in the literature can be found in Federico et al (2004).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Prediction of ground displacements and velocities from groundwater level changes at the Vallcebre landslide (Eastern Pyrenees, Spain)

et al. 2005

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In active landslides, the prediction of acceleration of movement is a crucial issue for the design and performance of warning systems. The landslide of Vallcebre in the Eastern Pyreenes, Spain, has been monitored since 1996 and data on rainfall, groundwater levels and ground displacements are measured on a regular basis. Displacements observed in borehole wire extensometers have shown an immediate response of the landslide to rainfall episodes. This rapid response is likely due to the presence of preferential drainage ways. The occurrence of nearly constant rates of displacement in coincidence with steady groundwater levels suggests the presence of viscous forces developed during the movement. An attempt to predict both landslide displacements and velocities was performed at Vallcebre by solving the momentum equation in which a viscous term (Bingham and power law) was added. Results show that, using similar rheological parameters for the entire landslide, computed displacements reproduce quite accurately the displacements observed at three selected wire extensometers. These results indicate that prediction of displacements from groundwater level changes is feasible.

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On the prediction of the time of occurrence of a slope failure: a review

Cited by 21 publications

References 1 publication

Analysis of Baishuihe landslide influenced by the effects of reservoir water and rainfall

Analysis of Baishuihe landslide influenced by the effects of reservoir water and rainfall

Displacement prediction in colluvial landslides, Three Gorges Reservoir, China

Prediction of ground displacements and velocities from groundwater level changes at the Vallcebre landslide (Eastern Pyrenees, Spain)

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