On the question of the application of the prediction of the evolution of health risk in hygienic assessments

Abstract

In the paper there are described examples of the practical implementation of methodological approaches to the assessment of evolution of the health risk under exposure to a set of environmental factors. In the hygienic assessment of the dynamics of health risks for citizens, residing near a major airport (about 500 takeoffs and landings per day), there were revealed high risks of disorders of the cardiovascular and nervous system. The difference between the risks emerging under the exposure and without the impact of the factors peculiar to the airport was shown to increase with the age significantly, accounting for 5-year period, 1,2% of the exposure; over 20 years - 8-10%, and during the period of 50 years - more than 20%. There were obtained results describing the dynamics of the gain of risks for the population of all ages, the structure of risks in the different periods of the human life. Outputs of evolutionary modeling allowed to identify critical periods of exposure to factors for which the qualitative changes of levels of risk take place. This is important in justifying the order ofpriorities and urgency of sanitary hygienic measures for risk management. The development of methodological approaches lies in the plane of the refinement of mathematical models, improvement of methods for the assessment of the intensity and duration of exposure, taking into account features of the combined impacts of hazard factors of different nature.

Health-related quality of life assessment when implementing ecology programs

“…Based on the results of the hygiene and environmental studies the priority environmental factors were identified that had the greatest differences in concentrations and health risk criteria [6,17,19]. The high proportion of urban residents (71,4%) are marking the impact on their health adverse environmental factors environment.…”

“…On the basis of clinical-statistical and medical-sociological analysis the prevalence of chronic diseases and specific clinical symptoms was studied among the surveyed urban residents with their classification by health groups [2]. The revealed information importance criteria were used to evaluate the severity of the impact of risk factors on the integral indicator of health-related quality of life [5,19]. A screening questionnaire [3] was conducted the specialized questionnaire WHO "Burden of major Respiratory Diseases Who Survey" (GARD program) among a representative sample (3032 people) of the population in administrative districts of St. Petersburg with different severity of ecological trouble (by atmospheric air indicators).…”

“…The proposed methods for objective and subjective assessment of the environmental situation can be used in the formation of regional socio-hygienic monitoring subject to risk assessment methodology [11,19]; while conducting environmental impact assessments; when planning events with classification of territories with consideration of the environmental risk [12,15]. The health oriented environmental activities should include the establishment of public environmental awareness [4,7], prevention of risk factors of the living conditions and the habitat using a health risk assessment methodology [11,13].…”

Risk analysis as a strategic sphere in providing food products safety

“…Разрабатываются новые подходы к оценке риска продукции, в том числе использующие методы математического моделирования нарастания (эволюции) рисков во времени [21]. При этом новые методы в полной мере реализуют общепринятые принципы оценки риска и релевантные токсикологические и эпидемиологические данные.…”

Risk analysis as a strategic sphere in providing food products safety

“…Experts are creating new approaches to assessing product risks including those that incorporate mathematic modeling for risk evolution over time [21]. And these new approaches fully implement conventional risk assessment principles and relevant toxicological and epidemiologic data.…”