On the Rapid Intensification of Hurricane Wilma (2005). Part II: Convective Bursts and the Upper-Level Warm Core

Chen, Hua; Zhang, Da‐Lin

doi:10.1175/jas-d-12-062.1

Cited by 185 publications

(114 citation statements)

References 46 publications

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“…This rule includes one more variable: an upper-level air temperature anomaly. It has been reported in previous studies that the upper-level warm core plays an important role in the development and intensification of TCs (Zhang and Chen 2012;Chen and Zhang 2013). Although the 300-hPa air temperature anomaly is not selected in Fu et al (2012), it is ranked fifth in this study, indicating that the formation of an upper-level warm core is necessary for TC development.…”

Section: Resultscontrasting

confidence: 50%

Discriminating Developing versus Nondeveloping Tropical Disturbances in the Western North Pacific through Decision Tree Analysis

Zhang

Peng³

et al. 2015

Weather and Forecasting

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This study investigates the classification of developing and nondeveloping tropical disturbances in the western North Pacific (WNP) through the C4.5 algorithm. A decision tree is built based on this algorithm and can be used as a tool to predict future tropical cyclone (TC) genesis events. The results show that the maximum 800-hPa relative vorticity, SST, precipitation rate, divergence averaged between 1000-and 500-hPa levels, and 300-hPa air temperature anomaly are the five most important variables for separating the developing and nondeveloping tropical disturbances. This algorithm also unravels the thresholds of the five variables (i.e., 4.2 3 10 25 s 21 for maximum 800-hPa relative vorticity, 28.28C for SST, 0.1 mm h 21 for precipitation rate, 20.7 3 10 26 s 21 for vertically averaged convergence, and 0.58C for 300-hPa air temperature anomaly). Six rules are derived from the decision tree. The classification accuracy of this decision tree is 81.7% for the 2004-10 cases. The hindcast accuracy for the 2011-13 dataset is 84.6%.

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Section: Resultscontrasting

confidence: 50%

Discriminating Developing versus Nondeveloping Tropical Disturbances in the Western North Pacific through Decision Tree Analysis

Zhang

Peng³

et al. 2015

Weather and Forecasting

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“…This warm core structure directly follows from the decrease of the tangential wind with height that determines the horizontal temperature gradient through the thermal wind relationship. The existence of the TC warm core can be indeed derived from balanced theory and has been well-documented in numerous modeling and observational studies (e.g., [1][2][3][4]). …”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 86%

Impacts of the Lower Stratosphere on the Development of Intense Tropical Cyclones

Moon

Kieu

2017

Atmosphere

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This study examines potential impacts of the lower stratosphere on the development and the inner-core structure of intense tropical cyclones (TCs). By initializing the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) model with different monthly averaged sounding profiles in the Northwestern Pacific and the North Atlantic basins, it is shown that the lower stratosphere layer (LSL) can impose a noticeable influence on the TC structure and development via formation of an extra warm core near the tropopause along with a thin layer of inflow in the LSL at the high-intensity limit. Specifically, a lower tropopause level allows for higher TC intensity and a more distinct double warm core structure. Likewise, a weaker LSL stratification also corresponds to a warmer upper-level core and higher intensity. Of further significance is that the double warm core formation is more sensitive to tropopause variations in the Northwestern Pacific basin than those in the North Atlantic basin, given the same sea surface temperature. The results suggest that variations in tropopause level and LSL stratification could be an important factor that is responsible for the long-term variability of TC intensity.

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“…2 are available in the published literature. We have obtained M cross sections that extend beyond the 400-km radius from real-data simulations carried out by Nolan et al (2013), Chen and Zhang (2013), and Huang et al (2012). The M distribution in Fig.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Symmetric Instability in the Outflow Layer of a Major Hurricane

Molinari

Vollaro

2014

Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences

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A set of 327 dropsondes from the NOAA G-IV aircraft was used to create a composite analysis of the azimuthally averaged absolute angular momentum in the outflow layer of major Hurricane Ivan (2004). Inertial instability existed over a narrow layer in the upper troposphere between the 350-and 450-km radii. Isolines of potential and equivalent potential temperature showed that the conditions for both dry and moist symmetric instability were satisfied in the same region, but over a deeper layer from 9 to 12 km. The radial flow maximized at the outer edge of the unstable region. The symmetrically unstable state existed above a region of outward decrease of temperature between the cirrus overcast of the storm and clear air outside. It is hypothesized that the temperature gradient was created as a result of longwave heating within the cirrus overcast and longwave cooling outside the cloudy region. This produced isentropes that sloped upward with radius in the same region that absolute momentum surfaces were flat or sloping downward, thus creating symmetric instability. Although this instability typically follows rather than precedes intensification, limited numerical evidence suggests that the reestablishment of a symmetrically neutral state might influence the length of the intensification period.

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On the Rapid Intensification of Hurricane Wilma (2005). Part II: Convective Bursts and the Upper-Level Warm Core

Cited by 185 publications

References 46 publications

Discriminating Developing versus Nondeveloping Tropical Disturbances in the Western North Pacific through Decision Tree Analysis

Discriminating Developing versus Nondeveloping Tropical Disturbances in the Western North Pacific through Decision Tree Analysis

Impacts of the Lower Stratosphere on the Development of Intense Tropical Cyclones

Symmetric Instability in the Outflow Layer of a Major Hurricane

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