On the role of data, statistics and decisions in a pandemic

Abstract

A pandemic poses particular challenges to decision-making because of the need to continuously adapt decisions to rapidly changing evidence and available data. For example, which countermeasures are appropriate at a particular stage of the pandemic? How can the severity of the pandemic be measured? What is the effect of vaccination in the population and which groups should be vaccinated first? The process of decision-making starts with data collection and modeling and continues to the dissemination of results and the subsequent decisions taken. The goal of this paper is to give an overview of this process and to provide recommendations for the different steps from a statistical perspective. In particular, we discuss a range of modeling techniques including mathematical, statistical and decision-analytic models along with their applications in the COVID-19 context. With this overview, we aim to foster the understanding of the goals of these modeling approaches and the specific data requirements that are essential for the interpretation of results and for successful interdisciplinary collaborations. A special focus is on the role played by data in these different models, and we incorporate into the discussion the importance of statistical literacy and of effective dissemination and communication of findings.

Comment “On the role of data, statistics and decisions in a pandemic” by Jahn et al.

“…Tapping these sources is important, but Jahn et al. ( 2022 ) make the point of checking each source against the eight criteria of the European Statistics Code of Practice. While each source is likely to fail one or several of these criteria, “timeliness” and “accuracy” are often contradictions, of which in the early phases of a pandemic “timeliness” usually wins.…”

“…At the current stage of the pandemic, this trade-off should not have to be made the same way: However, for critical areas such as disease incidence, vaccinations or hospitalisations, Jahn et al. ( 2022 ) point out that the current data collecting procedures have not been (sufficiently) improved.…”

“…The work by Jahn et al. ( 2022 ) provides an overview on what role statistics can play in these preparations and how to improve matters from a statistical perspective. Focus of this comment is to review some of the authors’ suggestions relating to the population level using the situation in Germany as an example.…”

Grenzen und Fortschritte indikatorengestützter Politik am Beispiel der Corona-Pandemie

“…Das Druckmanuskript wurde ein Jahr später im September 2022 endgültig fertiggestellt, sodass das einschlägige 2022er Schwerpunktheft des „AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis“ verarbeitet werden konnte (mit Kommentaren zu Jahm, Friedrich et al. 2022 ). Dank geht an zwei anonyme Gutachter des AStA, sowie an Ulrich Rendtel und den Vorstand der Deutschen Statistischen Gesellschaft für die Einladung zu dieser ehrenvollen Vorlesung, die inhaltlich auf zum Teil lange zurückliegende Ausbildungszeiten und erste Erfahrungen wissenschaftlicher Gehversuche in der Johann Wolfgang von Goethe-Universität in Frankfurt am Main aufbaut, was nicht weit von meinem Heimatort Kelsterbach am Main und dem Ort meiner Gymnasialzeit, nämlich der „Opelstadt“ Rüsselsheim entfernt, liegt.…”

A Study of Morbidity and Mortality from COVID-19 in India

“…With the implementation of suitable statistical tools and modelling, a quantitative evaluation of the incident could be measured to compare not only different political or geographical regions but also the effectiveness of the measures taken by authorities by contrasting the outcome before and after the actions taken within the population, such as herd immunization [27]. Public health measures could be assessedprovided the accuracy of the sample data collectionusing factual recorded observations [28,29]. Importantly, making policy during a pandemic might be quite difficult.…”