On the twenty-first-century wet season projections over the Southeastern United States

Selman, Christopher; Misra, Vasubandhu; Stefanova, Lydia; DiNapoli, Steven; Smith, Thomas J.

doi:10.1007/s10113-013-0477-8

Cited by 15 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 36 publications

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“…A brief outline of the physics of the RSM used in this study is provided in Table . The choice of these schemes stems from previous successful simulations over the region [ DiNapoli and Misra , ; Selman et al ., ; Selman and Misra , ].…”

Section: Methodology and Data Setsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Therefore, it is potentially difficult to estimate the wet season rainfall over Florida from climate models on seasonal to longer time scales because climate models are not reliable in simulating the tracks and intensities of the Atlantic tropical cyclones beyond the numerical weather prediction time scales [ Rappaport et al ., ; DeMaria et al ., ]. However, a significant fraction of the wet season rainfall over PF also arises from diurnal variations that set up the sea breeze circulations along the coast [ Pielke , ; Burpee and Lahiffi , ; Blanchard and López , ; Misra et al ., ; Bastola and Misra , ; Selman et al ., ]. In the early part of the wet season, warm (cold) El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events are associated with early (late) onset of the rainy season over south Florida resulting in longer (shorter) wet season [ Misra and DiNapoli , ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The oceanic influence on the rainy season of Peninsular Florida

Misra

Mishra

2016

JGR Atmospheres

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In this study we show that the robust surface ocean currents around Peninsular Florida, namely, the Loop and the Florida Currents, affect the terrestrial wet season of Peninsular Florida. We show this through two novel regional coupled ocean‐atmosphere models with different bathymetries that dislocate and modulate the strength of these currents and thereby affect the overlying sea surface temperature (SST) and upper ocean heat content. This study show that a weaker current system produces colder coastal SSTs along the Atlantic coast of Florida that reduces the length of the wet season and the total seasonal accumulation of precipitation over Peninsular Florida relative to the regional climate model simulation, in which these currents are stronger. The moisture budget reveals that as a result of these forced changes to the temperature of the upper coastal Atlantic Ocean, overlying surface evaporation and atmospheric convection is modulated. This consequently changes the moisture flux convergence leading to the modulation of the terrestrial wet season rainfall over Peninsular Florida that manifests in changes in the length and distribution of daily rain rate of the wet season. The results of this study have implications on interpreting future changes to hydroclimate of Peninsular Florida owing to climate change and low‐frequency changes to the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation that comprises the Loop and the Florida Currents as part of its upper branch.

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Section: Methodology and Data Setsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The oceanic influence on the rainy season of Peninsular Florida

Misra

Mishra

2016

JGR Atmospheres

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“…It was found that by using any combination of either NCEP‐R2, European Center ERA‐40 [ Uppala et al ., ] as lateral boundary conditions and Kain‐Fritsch or Relaxed Arakawa Schubert convection scheme, the model verifies quite well against observation. In particular, it does a reasonable job in simulating magnitude and phase of the diurnal amplitude of both precipitation and temperature (both are significant contributors to the overall climatology of the SEUS [ Bastola and Misra, ; Selman et al ., ; Selman and Misra, ]) and keeps the root‐mean‐square error (RMSE) reasonably small relative to the observations. Additional details of these results, the fidelity of the CTL integration, as well as a sensitivity analysis of parameterization choices can be found in Selman and Misra [].…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The sensitivity of southeastern United States climate to varying irrigation vigor

Selman

Misra

2016

JGR Atmospheres

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Four regional climate model runs centered on the Southeast United States (SEUS) assuming a crop growing season of May through October are irrigated at 25% (IRR25), 50% (IRR50), 75% (IRR75), and 100% (IRR100) of the root zone porosity to assess the sensitivity of the SEUS climate to irrigation. A fifth run, assuming no irrigation (CTL), is used as the basis for comparison. Across all IRR runs, it is found that there is a general reduction in seasonal mean precipitation over the irrigated cells relative to CTL. This manifests as an increase in dry (0–1 mm/d) days and reduction in > 1 mm/d rainfall events. A comparative moisture budget reveals that area‐averaged precipitation over the irrigated cells displays a reduction in precipitation and runoff in IRR100 with a weaker reduction in IRR25. This is despite an increase in vertically integrated moisture convergence and local evaporation. We find that irrigation increases the lower atmospheric stability, which in turn reduces the convective rainfall over the irrigated areas. Seasonally averaged temperatures reduce over irrigated areas, with the intensity of the reduction increasing with irrigation vigor. This is largely attributed to a repartitioning of sensible heat flux into latent heat flux. There is also, however, a small increase of heat flow to deeper soil layers. Precipitation ahead of transient cold fronts is also reduced by irrigation as they pass over irrigated cells, owing to the increased stability in the lower troposphere. The intensity of this precipitation reduction becomes more intense as irrigation vigor increases. Lastly, heat waves in the SEUS are reduced in intensity over irrigated cells.

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“…The NASH, also known as the Azores or Bermuda High, displays a distinct high pressure anticyclone in the lower troposphere during the summer over the subtropical Atlantic basin that changes to two distinct high pressure systems over eastern North America and northwestern Africa by the winter season. These seasonal migrations of the NASH modulate the large-scale moisture advection (Li et al 2013;Chan and Misra 2010), low-level divergence (Misra et al, 2011), and atmospheric stability (Selman et al 2013), which impacts seasonal precipitation over Florida.…”

Section: The Seasonal Cyclementioning

confidence: 99%

Terrestrial and Ocean Climate of the 20th Century

Misra¹,

Selman²,

Waite³

et al. 2017

Florida’s Climate: Changes, Variations, &Amp; Impacts

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Key Messages• Florida is a unique region to the east of the Rocky Mountains with a very distinct monsoonal type of wet season in the summer that distinguishes it from the rest of the seasons.• Florida's climate is as much affected by remote climate variations as local variability over land and its neighboring water bodies. Florida's climate is affected by more global scale natural variations like ENSO, AMO, PDO. Similarly, there is a discernible impact of local land cover and land use change on surface temperatures in Florida.• There are important interactions of the observed climate across time and spatial scales to consider. For example, the sea breeze over the Florida Panhandle is shown to be affected by the subtle variations of the Bermuda High. Similarly, ENSO forcing on Florida's winter climate is affected by decadal variations such as the PDO and the AMO.

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On the twenty-first-century wet season projections over the Southeastern United States

Cited by 15 publications

References 36 publications

The oceanic influence on the rainy season of Peninsular Florida

The oceanic influence on the rainy season of Peninsular Florida

The sensitivity of southeastern United States climate to varying irrigation vigor

Terrestrial and Ocean Climate of the 20th Century

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