On the Use of Demographic Models of Population Viability in Endangered Species Management

Beissinger, Steven R.; Westphal, Michael I.

doi:10.2307/3802534

Cited by 934 publications

(793 citation statements)

References 108 publications

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“…It is evident that uncertainties exist in the climate projections, model assumptions and parameter values (e.g. Beissinger and Westphal 1998;Drechsler et al 2003;NaujokaitisLewis et al 2009), which makes it very challenging to assess climate adaptation options for biodiversity conservation. Therefore, modelling frameworks such as ours cannot be used to make exact inferences of species viability.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Is green infrastructure an effective climate adaptation strategy for conserving biodiversity? A case study with the great crested newt

et al. 2015

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Context Increasing the amount of green infrastructure, defined as small-scale natural landscape elements, has been named as a climate adaptation measure for biodiversity. While green infrastructure strengthened ecological networks in some studies, it is not known whether this effect also holds under climate change, and how it compares to other landscape adaptation options. ObjectivesWe assessed landscape adaptation options under scenarios of climate change for a dispersallimited and climate-sensitive species: great crested newt, Triturus cristatus. Methods A spatially-explicit modelling framework was used to simulate newt metapopulation dynamics in a case study area in the Netherlands, under alternative spatial configurations of 500 ha to-berestored habitat. The framework incorporated weather-related effects on newt recruitment, following current and changing climate conditions. Results Mild climate change resulted in slightly higher metapopulation viability, while more severe climate change (i.e. more frequent mild winters and summer droughts) had detrimental effects on metapopulation viability. The modelling framework revealed interactions between climate and landscape configuration on newt viability. Restoration of ponds and terrestrial habitat may reduce the negative effects of climate change, but only when certain spatial requirements (habitat density, connectivity) as well as abiotic requirements (high ground water level) are met. Conclusions Landscape scenarios where habitat was added in the form of green infrastructure were not able to meet these multiple conditions, as was the case for a scenario that enlarged core areas. The approach allowed a deduction of landscape design rules that incorporated both spatial and abiotic requirements resulting in more effective climate adaptation options.Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Is green infrastructure an effective climate adaptation strategy for conserving biodiversity? A case study with the great crested newt

et al. 2015

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“…Ecological models are frequently used to predict and assess the outcomes of conservation measures and ecosystem management strategies (cf. for example Burgman et al 1993, Beissinger/Westphal 1998, Jeltsch et al 1999, Frank/Wissel 2002, Leslie et al 2003. These efforts have been greatly facilitated by advances in computer technology, allowing models to be developed with structure and complexity necessary to describe the effects of measures and management strategies on the spatiotemporal dynamics of ecosystems.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Differences and similarities between ecological and economic models for biodiversity conservation

Drechsler¹,

Grimm²,

Myšiak³

et al. 2007

Ecological Economics

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Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. Terms of use: Documents in Abstract:In this paper we investigate an important obstacle which substantially complicates cooperation between ecologists and economists but which has received little attention so far: differences between the modelling approaches in economics and ecology. To understand these differences, 60 models addressing issues relevant to biodiversity conservation have been selected randomly from eight international economic and ecological journals. The models have been compared according to a number of criteria including the level of generality/universality the models aim at; the mathematical technique employed for formulation and solution of the model; the level of complexity and the way time, space and uncertainty are taken into account. The economic models sampled are formulated and analysed analytically, tend to be relatively simple and are generally used to investigate general questions. Furthermore, they often ignore space, dynamics and uncertainty. Although some ecological models have similar properties, there is also a substantial number of another type of ecological models that are relatively complex and analysed by simulation. These models tend to be rather specific and often explicitly consider dynamics, space and uncertainty. The integrated ecological-economic models are observed to lie "in the middle" between ecological and economic models, an unexpected result being that they are not more complex than ecological and economic models (as one could have expected from a simple "merger" of both modelling attitudes), but have an intermediate complexity.JEL: B40, C60, Q57

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“…Because PVA models and the organisms they are applied to are so diverse, no single study can confirm nor discredit the general value of PVA (Beissinger and Westphal 1998). As such, it is important that ecologists test the predictive accuracy of different PVA models on a range of organisms, with the long-term goal of understanding some of the conditions that underlie PVA reliability.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Population viability analysis (PVA) has become a popular tool in conservation biology and has been applied to the management of many threatened populations (Brook et al 1982;Boyce 1992;Beissinger and Westphal 1998). In most instances it is not possible to estimate population viability empirically since often we are trying to conserve only one or a handful of remaining populations.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In most instances it is not possible to estimate population viability empirically since often we are trying to conserve only one or a handful of remaining populations. By using analytical or stochastic simulation methods (Beissinger and Westphal 1998), PVA provides a formal framework with which ecologists can explore the potential effects of different management strategies on population viability. While PVAs are popular, they are not necessarily reliable.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Ball

Lindenmayer

Possingham

2003

Biodiversity and Conservation

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This study examines the predictive accuracy of the population viability analysis package, ALEX (Analysis of the Likelihood of EXtinction). ALEX was used to predict the probability of patch occupancy for two species of small native Australian mammals (Antechinus agilis and Rattus fuscipes) among 13 patches of suitable habitat in a matrix of plantation pines (Pinus radiata). The study was retrospective, running each simulation from 1900 until 1997, and the model parameterised without knowledge of the 1997 observed field data of patch occupancy. Predictions were made over eight scenarios for each species, allowing for variation in the amount of dispersal between patches, level of environmental stochasticity, and size of habitat patches. Predicted occupancies were compared to the 1997 field data of patch occupancy using logistic regression, testing H r a n d o m , that there was no relationship between observed and predicted occupancy, and H p e r f e c t , that there was a perfect, 1:1 relationship between observed and predicted occupancies. Rejection of H random and failure to reject H perfect was taken as a good match between observed and predicted occupancies. Such a match was found for one scenario with R. fuscipes, and no scenarios with A. agilis. In general, patch occupancy was underestimated, with field surveys finding that 9 of the 13 patches were occupied by R. fuscipes and 10 by A. agilis. Nonetheless, PVA predictions were in the 'right direction', whereby patches predicted to have a high probability of occupancy were generally occupied, and vice versa. A post hoc search over additional scenarios found few scenarios with a better match than the original eight. The results of this study support the notion that PVA is best thought of as a relative, rather than absolute predictor of the consequences of management actions in threatened populations.

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On the Use of Demographic Models of Population Viability in Endangered Species Management

Cited by 934 publications

References 108 publications

Is green infrastructure an effective climate adaptation strategy for conserving biodiversity? A case study with the great crested newt

Is green infrastructure an effective climate adaptation strategy for conserving biodiversity? A case study with the great crested newt

Differences and similarities between ecological and economic models for biodiversity conservation

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