On the variability of return periods of European winter precipitation extremes over the last three centuries

Pauling, Andreas; Paeth, Heiko

doi:10.5194/cp-3-65-2007

Cited by 41 publications

(37 citation statements)

References 48 publications

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“…This finding is in line with other studies that have detected a shift towards increased winter precipitation and the responsible circulation patterns in Central Europe (e.g. Caspary, 1995Caspary, , 2000Jacobeit et al, 2003Jacobeit et al, , 2006Belz et al, 2007;Pauling and Paeth, 2007;Petrow et al, 2007). …”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 82%

A consistent set of trans-basin floods in Germany between 1952–2002

Uhlemann

Thieken

Merz

2010

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

106

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Abstract. Floods that affect many sites simultaneously can pose great challenges in the co-ordination of flood disaster management actions, as well as for the insurance and reinsurance industry, since this type of flooding leads to an accumulation of losses and the risk assessment needs to be extended to a concept representing the spatial risk of flooding. The assessment of the accumulated risk, especially over large domains, requires an analysis of the spatial and temporal coherence of flooding. For Germany the extent of spatial dependence of flooding is largely unknown and no systematic analysis has been performed so far. In this paper, we present a methodology that is capable of capturing the simultaneous occurrence of flooding using multiple series of mean daily discharge. For the first time we present a complete and consistent set of trans-basin floods in Germany for the period between 1952 and 2002. Each flood is characterised by a specific value for the timing, the location and the magnitude of discharges within the entire river network. We propose a measure for quantifying the overall event severity considering both the heterogeneous spatial extent as well as the locally varying magnitudes of a trans-basin flood. In total, we identify 80 trans-basin floods in the entire time period. The set is dominated by events that were recorded in the hydrological winter (64%); 36% occurred during the summer months. 32 events affected more than one third of the entire river network. These most severe events are predominantly winter events. Dividing the study period into two sub-periods, we find an increase in the percentage of winter events from 58% in the first to 70.5% in the second sub-period. Accordingly, we find a significant increase in the number of extreme trans-basin floods in the second subperiod. A natural extension of this study is the quantification of the spatial and temporal dependencies in a multivariateCorrespondence to: S. Uhlemann (uhlemann@gfz-potsdam.de) framework. This framework needs to be supported by a flood typology based on the analysis of the physical processes relevant in the genesis of trans-basin floods.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 82%

A consistent set of trans-basin floods in Germany between 1952–2002

Uhlemann

Thieken

Merz

2010

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

106

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“…During the first half of the Spörer Minimum, several catastrophic floods occurred in Switzerland in the 1470s and 1480s (Rötlisberger, 1991). Camuffo and Enzi (1995) found little if any relationship between solar activity and the flood frequencies of the Po, Tiber and Adige rivers in Italy during the past 2000 years including the Wolf and Spörer Minima and Pauling and Paeth (2007) found no clear connection between winter precipitation extremes in Central Europe and solar, volcanic or anthropogenic forcing.…”

Section: Can We Explain the Fluctuations In Observed Flood Frequency?mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In our study, historical floods were compiled from the WSL historical and recent flood damage databases (Hilker et al, 2009;Rötlisberger, 1991), the Weikinn compilation (Weikinn, 1958(Weikinn, to 2002 and data from Gees (1997), Hächler (1991), Pfister (1984Pfister ( , 1998 and Schaub et al (1990). For the time period after 1500, the historical data was sufficient to include 14 catchments into the analysis.…”

Section: Historical Data Used and Study Sitesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In Switzerland, detailed descriptions of floods which occurred prior to runoff measurements exist. Hächler (1991) and Rötlisberger (1991) collected data on such historical floods and Pfister (1984 and used historical floods as one parameter in more extensive climatic studies. In numerous case studies, historical floods have been used to extend the measured annual flood series to improve design flood estimations (e.g.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Changes in flood frequencies in Switzerland since 1500

Schmocker-Fackel

Naef²

2010

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

110

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In northern Switzerland, an accumulation of large flood events has occurred since the 1970s, preceded by a prolonged period with few floods (Schmocker-Fackel and Naef, 2010). How have Swiss flood frequencies changed over the past 500 years? And how does the recent increase in flood frequencies compare with other periods in this half millennium? We collected historical flood data for 14 Swiss catchments dating back to 1500 AC. All catchments experienced marked fluctuations in flood frequencies, and we were able to identify four periods of frequent flooding in northern Switzerland, lasting between 30 and 100 years (1560–1590, 1740–1790, 1820–1940 and since 1970). The current period of increased flood frequencies has not yet exceeded those observed in the past. We tested whether the flood frequency fluctuation could be explained with generalised climatic indices like solar activity or the NAO. The first three periods of low flood frequency in Switzerland correspond to periods of low solar activity. However, after 1810 no relationship between solar activity and flood frequency was found, nor could a relationship be established between reconstructed NAO indices or reconstructed Swiss temperatures. We found re-occurring spatial patterns of flood frequencies on a European scale, with the Swiss periods of frequent flooding often in phase with those in the Czech Republic, Italy and Spain and less often with those in Germany. The pattern of flooding in northern Switzerland and the Czech Republic seem to be rather similar, although the individual flood events do not match. This comparison of flooding patterns in different European countries suggests that changes in large scale atmospheric circulation are responsible for the flood frequency fluctuations

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“…Also, increases in frequency and duration of west and north-west circulation patterns were observed (Werner et al, 2008). Pauling and Paeth (2007) identified an increase in extreme winter precipitation during the last 300 years over Europe. Casty et al (2005) found a close correlation between the NAO index and temperature and precipitation indices in the European Alps during the last 500 years.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Changes in the flood hazard in Germany through changing frequency and persistence of circulation patterns

Petrow

Zimmer

Merz

2009

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract.The link between trends in circulation patterns and trends in the flood magnitude is studied for 122 mesoscale catchments in Germany for a period of 52 years . Flood trends, significant at the 10% level, are detected for a large number of catchments. The catchments are pooled into three regions, based on flood seasonality and flood trends. Field-significant increasing trends are found for winter in Regions West and East. For summer, increasing and decreasing flood trends are detected for Regions South and East, respectively. The temporal behaviour of three flood indicators of each region is compared to atmospheric indicators derived from circulation patterns. Significantly increasing frequency and persistence of flood-prone circulation patterns intensify the flood hazard during the winter season throughout Germany. Moreover, a trend towards a reduced diversity of circulation patterns is found causing fewer patterns with longer persistence to dominate the weather over Europe. This indicates changes in the dynamics of atmospheric circulations which directly influence the flood hazard. Longer persistence of circulation patterns which in general do not favour large precipitation amounts may lead to large runoff coefficients due to soil-moistening and hence cause floods.

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On the variability of return periods of European winter precipitation extremes over the last three centuries

Cited by 41 publications

References 48 publications

A consistent set of trans-basin floods in Germany between 1952–2002

A consistent set of trans-basin floods in Germany between 1952–2002

Changes in flood frequencies in Switzerland since 1500

Changes in the flood hazard in Germany through changing frequency and persistence of circulation patterns

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