We present seasonal precipitation reconstructions for European land areas (30°W to 40°E/30-71°N; given on a 0.5°•0.5°resolved grid) covering the period 1500-1900 together with gridded reanalysis from 1901 to 2000 (Mitchell and Jones 2005). Principal component regression techniques were applied to develop this dataset. A large variety of long instrumental precipitation series, precipitation indices based on documentary evidence and natural proxies (tree-ring chronologies, ice cores, corals and a speleothem) that are sensitive to precipitation signals were used as predictors. Transfer functions were derived over the 1901-1983 calibration period and applied to 1500-1900 in order to reconstruct the large-scale precipitation fields over Europe. The performance (quality estimation based on unresolved variance within the calibration period) of the reconstructions varies over centuries, seasons and space. Highest reconstructive skill was found for winter over central Europe and the Iberian Peninsula. Precipitation variability over the last half millennium reveals both large interannual and decadal fluctuations. Applying running correlations, we found major non-stationarities in the relation between largescale circulation and regional precipitation. For several periods during the last 500 years, we identified key atmospheric modes for southern Spain/northern Mor-occo and central Europe as representations of two precipitation regimes. Using scaled composite analysis, we show that precipitation extremes over central Europe and southern Spain are linked to distinct pressure patterns. Due to its high spatial and temporal resolution, this dataset allows detailed studies of regional precipitation variability for all seasons, impact studies on different time and space scales, comparisons with high-resolution climate models as well as analysis of connections with regional temperature reconstructions.
El Niñ o/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) affects climate not only in the Pacific region and the tropics, but also in the North Atlantic-European area. Studies based on twentieth-century data have found that El Niñ o events tend to be accompanied in late winter by a negative North Atlantic Oscillation index, low temperatures in northeastern Europe and a change in precipitation patterns. However, many questions are open, for example, concerning the stationarity of this relation. Here we study the relation between ENSO and European climate during the past 500 years based on statistically reconstructed ENSO indices, early instrumental station series, and reconstructed fields of surface air temperature, sea-level pressure, precipitation, and 500 hPa geopotential height. After removing years following tropical volcanic eruptions (which systematically mask the ENSO signal), we find a consistent and statistically significant ENSO signal in late winter and spring. The responses to El Niñ o and La Niñ a are close to symmetric. In agreement with studies using twentieth-century data only, the ENSO signal in precipitation is different in fall than in late winter. Moving correlation analyses confirm a stationary relationship between ENSO and late winter climate in Europe during the past 300 years. However, the ENSO signal is modulated significantly by the North Pacific climate. A multi-field cluster analysis for strong ENSO events during the past 300 years yields a dominant pair of clusters that is symmetric and represents the 'classical' ENSO effects on Europe.
The onset, duration and intensity of the period when pollen is present in the air varies from year to year. Amongst other things, there is an effect upon the quality of life of allergy sufferers. The production and emission of pollens are governed by interacting environmental factors. Any change in these factors may affect the phenology and intensity of the season. Readiness to fl ower in a plant, and the amount of pollen produced, is the result of conditions during an often long period foregoing fl owering. When a plant is ready to fl ower, temporary ambient circumstances e.g., irradiation and humidity, determine the timing of the actual
We evaluate the importance of high‐resolution proxies for boreal winter (October to March) and summer (April to September) European and North Atlantic temperature reconstructions. Multiple regression, backward elimination and cross‐validation techniques are used to achieve this goal. The analysis considers natural proxies and synthetic “pseudo‐documentary indices”. The results suggest that the most valuable predictors for European winter temperature are documentary‐based indices, while tree‐rings performed best for the warm season. It was also shown that the temperature signal in a speleothem from Scotland may be used for further winter and summer temperature reconstructions over parts of the Atlantic Ocean. This study represents a step towards the optimal selection of proxies which will improve temperature reconstructions.
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