Five hundred years of gridded high-resolution precipitation reconstructions over Europe and the connection to large-scale circulation

Abstract

We present seasonal precipitation reconstructions for European land areas (30°W to 40°E/30-71°N; given on a 0.5°•0.5°resolved grid) covering the period 1500-1900 together with gridded reanalysis from 1901 to 2000 (Mitchell and Jones 2005). Principal component regression techniques were applied to develop this dataset. A large variety of long instrumental precipitation series, precipitation indices based on documentary evidence and natural proxies (tree-ring chronologies, ice cores, corals and a speleothem) that are sensitive to precipitation signals were used as predictors. Transfer functions were derived over the 1901-1983 calibration period and applied to 1500-1900 in order to reconstruct the large-scale precipitation fields over Europe. The performance (quality estimation based on unresolved variance within the calibration period) of the reconstructions varies over centuries, seasons and space. Highest reconstructive skill was found for winter over central Europe and the Iberian Peninsula. Precipitation variability over the last half millennium reveals both large interannual and decadal fluctuations. Applying running correlations, we found major non-stationarities in the relation between largescale circulation and regional precipitation. For several periods during the last 500 years, we identified key atmospheric modes for southern Spain/northern Mor-occo and central Europe as representations of two precipitation regimes. Using scaled composite analysis, we show that precipitation extremes over central Europe and southern Spain are linked to distinct pressure patterns. Due to its high spatial and temporal resolution, this dataset allows detailed studies of regional precipitation variability for all seasons, impact studies on different time and space scales, comparisons with high-resolution climate models as well as analysis of connections with regional temperature reconstructions.

Tree‐ring reconstructions of precipitation and streamflow for north‐western Turkey

“…Over the past few decades, there have been a number of severe and/or persistent drought and heat episodes in the countries bordering the Mediterranean, including Turkey (Luterbacher et al, 2004;Pauling et al, 2006). Such extreme events can have disastrous consequences for human society due to resulting famine and disease, soil degradation, desertification, and increased incidence of wildfires (di Castri and Mooney, 1973;Le Houérou, 1996).…”

The Irish famine of 1740–1741: famine vulnerability and "climate migration"

“…One purported advantage is the inclusion of longrange correlation structures, leading to predictive skill even at locations where no data is available for the past (Smerdon et al, 2011). Thus, even while these studies did not use predictors from Ireland, validation measures in these studies do indeed indicate skill for our area of interest (Luterbacher et al, 2004;Xoplaki et al, 2005;Pauling et al, 2006). Recently, it has been shown that even without explicitly including teleconnection patterns, reconstructions can still be skilful outside the area with good data coverage in the past (Werner et al, 2013).…”

“…4.1 is an in-depth analysis of pre-famine vulnerability; in Sect. 4.2, using temperature and precipitation reconstructions from Luterbacher et al (2004Luterbacher et al ( , 2007, Xoplaki et al (2005) and Pauling et al (2006), we describe climate conditions in Ireland between 1739 and 1741; Sect. 4.3 looks at the impacts on, and coping strategies of, Irish society; finally, Sect.…”

“…We use the seasonal temperature and precipitation reconstructions for Ireland by Luterbacher et al (2004Luterbacher et al ( , 2007, Xoplaki et al (2005) and Pauling et al (2006). In Fig.…”

“…In Fig. 3, we present seasonal climate diagrams for temperature and precipitation (Luterbacher et al, 2000(Luterbacher et al, , 2004(Luterbacher et al, , 2007Xoplaki et al, 2005;Pauling et al, 2006) for the early eighteenth century (1710-1739), the 30 yr prior to the famine. A solid red vertical line marks the average values for the reference period and blue dashed lines mark the respective seasons in the famine years of 1740-1741.…”