On thinning ice: Effects of atmospheric warming, changes in wind speed and rainfall on ice conditions in temperate lakes (Northern Poland)

Bartosiewicz, Maciej; Ptak, Mariusz; Woolway, R. Iestyn; Sojka, Mariusz

doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.125724

Cited by 29 publications

(18 citation statements)

References 71 publications

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“…1b), such as geographical location, lake size, lake depth, sampling date, degree of global warming, morphological and hydrothermal conditions. It is, however, rather well documented that many lakes in the world presently experience a trend of thinner ice e.g., [20][21][22] , suggesting that the thinner ice conditions during our sampling campaign are a result of rapidly increasing winter air temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere during the past years (Fig. 1b).…”

Section: Ice Quality Observationsmentioning

confidence: 86%

Towards critical white ice conditions in lakes under global warming

et al. 2022

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The quality of lake ice is of uppermost importance for ice safety and under-ice ecology, but its temporal and spatial variability is largely unknown. Here we conducted a coordinated lake ice quality sampling campaign across the Northern Hemisphere during one of the warmest winters since 1880 and show that lake ice during 2020/2021 commonly consisted of unstable white ice, at times contributing up to 100% to the total ice thickness. We observed that white ice increased over the winter season, becoming thickest and constituting the largest proportion of the ice layer towards the end of the ice cover season when fatal winter drownings occur most often and light limits the growth and reproduction of primary producers. We attribute the dominance of white ice before ice-off to air temperatures varying around the freezing point, a condition which occurs more frequently during warmer winters. Thus, under continued global warming, the prevalence of white ice is likely to substantially increase during the critical period before ice-off, for which we adjusted commonly used equations for human ice safety and light transmittance through ice.

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Section: Ice Quality Observationsmentioning

confidence: 86%

Towards critical white ice conditions in lakes under global warming

et al. 2022

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“…In the case of nine lakes (USA, Canada), Hewitt et al (2018) established that by 2070 the freezing date will be delayed by 11 days on average and the date of the ice cover breakdown will have occurred 13 days earlier. In the case of the territory of Poland, depending on the adopted scenario, ice duration in the 21st century is forecasted to be shorter by 4.5–10 days/decade, and ice thickness to be reduced by 3.0–5.0 cm/decade (Bartosiewicz et al, 2021).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The disappearance of ice cover on temperate lakes (Central Europe) as a result of climate warming

Ptak

Sojka

2021

Geographical Journal

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This paper presents changes in the ice regime of lakes located in the northern part of Poland. It has been established that in the period 1960–2019, there was a successive decline in the ice extent of lakes, clearly visible in individual parameters; formation of ice cover is delayed by 3.0 days/decade (on average for all lakes), its decline occurred earlier by 3.8 days/decade, and the length of ice cover is shorter by 6.8 days/decade. Moreover, the maximum thickness of the ice cover is becoming thinner, and this process has progressed at an average rate of 2.3 cm/decade. The aforementioned situation shows strong relations with air temperature. It was particularly evident in the late 1980s, when a change in the thermal regime took place, which was documented in most of the analysed parameters, as demonstrated in the study. It has been established that from that period up to now, the decline of ice cover tends to start 19 days earlier, the duration of ice cover is shorter by 22 days, and the ice cover is 8 cm thinner, on average. The observed transformation affects the imbalance of the existing equilibrium in lakes, which can be related to both biotic and abiotic processes.

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“…The precipitation has negative correlation with FUS and positive correlation with FUE, strongly affects ice freeze up period. This may be due to rainfall not only cools down the air temperature [28,29], but also can destory the thin ice cover above lake which cause earlier freeze up start and later freeze up end, finally extend freeze up process [23]. Shortwave radiation strongly affects FUS and FUD.…”

Section: Correlation Of Lake Ice Phenology Variables With Influcing F...mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The stronger the wind speed, the earlier freeze up events occurs, the later break up events occurs and the longer ice completely duration occurs. This may be because wind brings cold air above the lake surface and destory thin ice cover on the lake surface [23,27,28].…”

Section: Correlation Of Lake Ice Phenology Variables With Influcing F...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Phenological changes and driving forces of lake ice in Central Asia from 2002 to 2020

Hou

et al. 2022

Preprint

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Lake ice phenology is an indicator to the past and present climates which responds to regional and global climate change sensitively. The climate in Central Asia significant changes over the past few decades due to global warming and anthropogenic activity. How ever, there are few studies specially on the lake ice phenology in Central Asia. In this study, lake ice phenology of 53 lakes in Central Asia was extracted using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) daily LST products for the period from 2002 to 2020. The results showed that MODIS-derived lake ice phenology was overall consistent with Landsat-derived and AVHRR-derived lake ice phenology. Generally, lakes in Central Asia start to freeze from October to December. The trend of each lake ice phenology variables showed a strongly regional difference. Lakes distributed along Kunlun Mountains showed an over all delaying trend in all lake ice phenology variables, while lakes located in the south west part of Central Asia showed an obivious advancing trend of FUS (7.06 days) and BUE (6.81 days). A correlation between lake ice phenology variables and parameters describing local and climatic conditions showed that break up process and ice completely cover duration is more thermal dependent and precipitation mainly affect the freeze up duration. Wind speed mainly affects ice completely frozen duration. Generally, break up process are more easily affected by climatic factors, while local factors have great impact on freeze up process.

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On thinning ice: Effects of atmospheric warming, changes in wind speed and rainfall on ice conditions in temperate lakes (Northern Poland)

Cited by 29 publications

References 71 publications

Towards critical white ice conditions in lakes under global warming

Towards critical white ice conditions in lakes under global warming

The disappearance of ice cover on temperate lakes (Central Europe) as a result of climate warming

Phenological changes and driving forces of lake ice in Central Asia from 2002 to 2020

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