Operational TBE incidence forecasts for Austria, Germany, and Switzerland 2019–2021

Rubel, Franz; Brugger, Katharina

doi:10.1016/j.ttbdis.2020.101579

Cited by 17 publications

(15 citation statements)

References 15 publications

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“…Fructification can predict rodent numbers, which are often related to TBE occurrence [ 24 ]. Previous research has used the beech fructification index as a main predictor for the TBE virus transmission cycle to generate TBE incidence forecasts for Germany, but did not produce a risk map [ 24 ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Geo-Spatial Characteristics of 567 Places of Tick-Borne Encephalitis Infection in Southern Germany, 2018–2020

et al. 2022

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Tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) is a growing public health problem with increasing incidence and expanding risk areas. Improved prevention requires better understanding of the spatial distribution and ecological determinants of TBE transmission. However, a TBE risk map at sub-district level is still missing for Germany. We investigated the distribution and geo-spatial characteristics of 567 self-reported places of probable TBE infection (POI) from 359 cases notified in 2018–2020 in the study area of Bavaria and Baden-Wuerttemberg, compared to 41 confirmed TBE foci and 1701 random comparator places. We built an ecological niche model to interpolate TBE risk to the entire study area. POI were distributed heterogeneously at sub-district level, as predicted probabilities varied markedly across regions (range 0–93%). POI were spatially associated with abiotic, biotic, and anthropogenic geo-spatial characteristics, including summer precipitation, population density, and annual frost days. The model performed with 69% sensitivity and 63% specificity at an optimised probability threshold (0.28) and an area under the curve of 0.73. We observed high predictive probabilities in small-scale areas, consistent with the known circulation of the TBE virus in spatially restricted microfoci. Supported by further field work, our findings may help identify new TBE foci. Our fine-grained risk map could supplement targeted prevention in risk areas.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Geo-Spatial Characteristics of 567 Places of Tick-Borne Encephalitis Infection in Southern Germany, 2018–2020

et al. 2022

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“…Forecasts of TBE for the whole of Austria (as well as Germany and Switzerland) for the years 2019-2021 used the fructification index of the European beech during the previous 2 years as the most important predictor of the TBE virus transmission cycle [41]. Good matches were found between predicted and recorded cases in 2019 (82 +/− 12 vs 108) and 2020 (156 +/− 19 vs 216) [41,42,44]. However, the overall TBE incidence in Austria is a composite of increasing incidences in the west and decreasing incidences in the east [19], apparently controlled by opposing factors not equally distributed over the whole country.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 96%

The regional decline and rise of tick-borne encephalitis incidence do not correlate with Lyme borreliosis, Austria, 2005 to 2018

et al. 2021

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Background Tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) virus is a human pathogen that is expanding its endemic zones in Europe, emerging in previously unaffected regions. In Austria, increasing incidence in alpine regions in the west has been countered by a decline in traditional endemic areas to the east of the country. Aim To shed light on the cause of this disparity, we compared the temporal changes of human TBE incidences in all federal provinces of Austria with those of Lyme borreliosis (LB), which has the same tick vector and rodent reservoir. Methods This comparative analysis was based on the surveillance of hospitalised TBE cases by the National Reference Center for TBE and on the analysis of hospitalised LB cases from hospital discharge records across all of Austria from 2005 to 2018. Results The incidences of the two diseases and their annual fluctuations were not geographically concordant. Neither the decline in TBE in the eastern lowlands nor the increase in western alpine regions is paralleled by similar changes in the incidence of LB. Conclusion The discrepancy between changes in incidence of TBE and LB support the contributions of virus-specific factors beyond the mere availability of tick vectors and/or human outdoor activity, which are a prerequisite for the transmission of both diseases. A better understanding of parameters controlling human pathogenicity and the maintenance of TBE virus in its natural vector−host cycle will generate further insights into the focal nature of TBE and can potentially improve forecasts of TBE risk on smaller regional scales.

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“…The African swine fever Asfarviridae (DNA virus) Europe wild boar fluctuate with beech and acorn mast [48]. Additional feeding to stabilize boar populations is a potential cause of swine fever epidemics [111] tick-borne encephalitis tick-borne encephalitis virus (virus) Europe seeds increase rodent populations and ticks, which relate to human incidence of tick-borne encephalitis [112] royalsocietypublishing.org/journal/rstb Phil. Trans.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Understanding mast seeding for conservation and land management

Pearse

Wion

Gonzalez

et al. 2021

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B

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Masting, the intermittent and synchronous production of large seed crops, can have profound consequences for plant populations and the food webs that are built on their seeds. For centuries, people have recorded mast crops because of their importance in managing wildlife populations. In the past 30 years, we have begun to recognize the importance of masting in conserving and managing many other aspects of the environment: promoting the regeneration of forests following fire or other disturbance, conserving rare plants, conscientiously developing the use of edible seeds as non-timber forest products, coping with the consequences of extinctions on seed dispersal, reducing the impacts of plant invasions with biological control, suppressing zoonotic diseases and preventing depredation of endemic fauna. We summarize current instances and future possibilities of a broad set of applications of masting. By exploring in detail several case studies, we develop new perspectives on how solutions to pressing conservation and land management problems may benefit by better understanding the dynamics of seed production. A lesson common to these examples is that masting can be used to time management, and often, to do this effectively, we need models that explicitly forecast masting and the dynamics of seed-eating animals into the near-term future. This article is part of the theme issue ‘The ecology and evolution of synchronized seed production in plants’.

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Operational TBE incidence forecasts for Austria, Germany, and Switzerland 2019–2021

Cited by 17 publications

References 15 publications

Geo-Spatial Characteristics of 567 Places of Tick-Borne Encephalitis Infection in Southern Germany, 2018–2020

Geo-Spatial Characteristics of 567 Places of Tick-Borne Encephalitis Infection in Southern Germany, 2018–2020

The regional decline and rise of tick-borne encephalitis incidence do not correlate with Lyme borreliosis, Austria, 2005 to 2018

Understanding mast seeding for conservation and land management

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