Operational use of a grid-based model for flood forecasting

Price, David; Hudson, Karen; Boyce, Graeme; Schellekens, Jaap; Moore, Robert J.; Clark, Peter A.; Harrison, Trevor D.; Connolly, Emily; Pilling, Charlie

doi:10.1680/wama.2012.165.2.65

Cited by 66 publications

(60 citation statements)

References 24 publications

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“…They are run at different spatial and temporal resolutions, typically ranging from about 2 to 20 km and from 24 to 240 h of lead time (Montani et al, 2011;Zappa et al, 2008;Price et al, 2012a). One of the most detailed models available in Europe is the COSMO-2, which has a grid size of 2.2 km and 24 h of lead time computed every 3 h (Weusthoff et al, 2010;Ament et al, 2011).…”

Section: K Liechti Et Al: the Potential Of Radar-based Ensemble Formentioning

confidence: 99%

“…One of the most detailed models available in Europe is the COSMO-2, which has a grid size of 2.2 km and 24 h of lead time computed every 3 h (Weusthoff et al, 2010;Ament et al, 2011). For NWP rainfall forecasts the largest source of uncertainty is found in the initial conditions of the NWP model (Price et al, 2012a). To account for this uncertainty ensemble forecasts are produced by adding small perturbations to the best estimate of the initial state of the atmosphere (Schellekens et al, 2011).…”

Section: K Liechti Et Al: the Potential Of Radar-based Ensemble Formentioning

confidence: 99%

“…As an example, Price et al (2012b) present a flood forecasting system for England and Wales forced by the radar-based rainfall product STEPS (control run) (Bowler et al, 2006) during the first hours of the forecast, followed by different NWP products with different lead times (36-120 h) and spatial resolutions (4-25 km). They conclude that despite the errors encountered in radar rainfall data, these are still the best option for real-time forecasting.…”

Section: K Liechti Et Al: the Potential Of Radar-based Ensemble Formentioning

confidence: 99%

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The potential of radar-based ensemble forecasts for flash-flood early warning in the southern Swiss Alps

Liechti

Panziera

Germann

et al. 2013

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. This study explores the limits of radar-based forecasting for hydrological runoff prediction. Two novel radarbased ensemble forecasting chains for flash-flood early warning are investigated in three catchments in the southern Swiss Alps and set in relation to deterministic discharge forecasts for the same catchments. The first radar-based ensemble forecasting chain is driven by NORA (Nowcasting of Orographic Rainfall by means of Analogues), an analogue-based heuristic nowcasting system to predict orographic rainfall for the following eight hours. The second ensemble forecasting system evaluated is REAL-C2, where the numerical weather prediction COSMO-2 is initialised with 25 different initial conditions derived from a four-day nowcast with the radar ensemble REAL. Additionally, three deterministic forecasting chains were analysed. The performance of these five flash-flood forecasting systems was analysed for 1389 h between June 2007 and December 2010 for which NORA forecasts were issued, due to the presence of orographic forcing.A clear preference was found for the ensemble approach. Discharge forecasts perform better when forced by NORA and REAL-C2 rather then by deterministic weather radar data. Moreover, it was observed that using an ensemble of initial conditions at the forecast initialisation, as in REAL-C2, significantly improved the forecast skill. These forecasts also perform better then forecasts forced by ensemble rainfall forecasts (NORA) initialised form a single initial condition of the hydrological model. Thus the best results were obtained with the REAL-C2 forecasting chain. However, for regions where REAL cannot be produced, NORA might be an option for forecasting events triggered by orographic precipitation.

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Section: K Liechti Et Al: the Potential Of Radar-based Ensemble Formentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: K Liechti Et Al: the Potential Of Radar-based Ensemble Formentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: K Liechti Et Al: the Potential Of Radar-based Ensemble Formentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

The potential of radar-based ensemble forecasts for flash-flood early warning in the southern Swiss Alps

Liechti

Panziera

Germann

et al. 2013

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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“…The selected tool was a distributed rainfall-runoff model known as the grid-togrid (G2G) model. Tools of this kind are seen as allowing warnings of potential flooding to be issued earlier at lower probability thresholds.The paper by Price et al (2012) describes ongoing work on the development of the G2G model and assesses its performance for England and Wales. It uses long-range weather forecasts to give an early indication of possible flood events.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The paper by Price et al (2012) describes ongoing work on the development of the G2G model and assesses its performance for England and Wales. It uses long-range weather forecasts to give an early indication of possible flood events.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Editorial

Pollard¹

2012

Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers - Water Manag

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I am delighted to be able to write this editorial for the themed issue on 'Developments in operational flood forecasting in the UK'. In summer 2007, the UK suffered widespread flooding resulting in an economic cost of £3 . 2 billion, 55 000 properties were flooded and 13 people died. This major flood event prompted the UK government to commission a lessons-learnt review under Sir Michael Pitt (2008). The UK Environment Agency issued flood warnings to nearly 45 000 properties and there were nearly 4 million visitors to the Environment Agency's flood warning website. The Pitt Review concluded that there was room for improvement, particularly in relation to increased lead times for predicting events, probabilistic forecasting and more accurate local-scale flood forecasts at a city or town level. One of the key recommendations was that the UK Environment Agency and the UK Met Office should work together, through a joint flood forecasting centre, to improve their technical capability to forecast, model and warn against all sources of flooding.A broad review of recent developments in UK operational hydrometeorology is presented in the paper by Dale et al. (2012). The interaction between hydrologists and meteorologists is very important for improving the timeliness and effectiveness of flood forecasts and warnings. This paper highlights that probabilistic flood forecasts provide earlier flood warnings than deterministic flood forecasts. A particular challenge is how to use probabilistic flood forecasts in real time, as they must become deterministic for action to be taken. In 2009, the Flood Forecasting Centre for England and Wales commissioned work to develop an operational tool to address the Pitt recommendation for increased flood warning lead times. The selected tool was a distributed rainfall-runoff model known as the grid-togrid (G2G) model. Tools of this kind are seen as allowing warnings of potential flooding to be issued earlier at lower probability thresholds.The paper by Price et al. (2012) describes ongoing work on the development of the G2G model and assesses its performance for England and Wales. It uses long-range weather forecasts to give an early indication of possible flood events. An important component of the research and development project was the opportunity to utilise prototype forms of ensemble rainfall forecasts in support of issuing flood forecasts in probability form. Of particular value as a warning tool was a comparison of ensemble flood forecasts against 'threshold flows' of a given return period, derived by UK Flood Estimation Handbook (CEH, 1999) methods and available on the 1 km grid used by the G2G model. This allows flood risk maps to be produced in real time, indicating the probability of exceeding the chosen threshold flow (say 10 years) over a given forecast horizon (say 24 h). The G2G model will not be used to provide accurate local-scale forecasts to an individual site level; Environment Agency regional flood forecasting teams have well-established and locally calibrated models ...

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Investigating potential future changes in surface water flooding hazard and impact

Rudd

Kay

Wells

et al. 2019

Hydrological Processes

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Surface water flooding (SWF) is a recurrent hazard that affects lives and livelihoods.Climate change is projected to change the frequency of extreme rainfall events that can lead to SWF. Increasingly, data from Regional Climate Models (RCMs) are being used to investigate the potential water-related impacts of climate change; such assessments often focus on broad-scale fluvial flooding and the use of coarse resolution (>12 km) RCMs. However, high-resolution (<4 km) convection-permitting RCMs are now becoming available that allow impact assessments of more localised SWF to be made.At the same time, there has been an increasing demand for more robust and timely real-time forecast and alert information on SWF. In the UK, a real-time SWF Hazard Impact Model framework has been developed. The system uses 1-km gridded surface runoff estimates from a hydrological model to simulate the SWF hazard. These are linked to detailed inundation model outputs through an Impact Library to assess impacts on property, people, transport, and infrastructure for four severity levels.Here, a set of high-resolution (1.5 km and 12 km) RCM data has been used as input to a grid-based hydrological model over southern Britain to simulate Current (1996)(1997)(1998)(1999)(2000)(2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009) and Future (~2100s; RCP8.5) surface runoff. Counts of thresholdexceedance for surface runoff and precipitation (at 1-, 3-and 6-hr durations) are analysed. Results show that the percentage increases in surface runoff extremes, are less than those of precipitation extremes. The higher-resolution RCM simulates the largest percentage increases, which occur in winter, and the winter exceedance counts are greater than summer exceedance counts. For property impacts, the largest percentage increases are also in winter; however, it is the 12-km RCM output that leads to the largest percentage increase in impacts. The added-value of highresolution climate model data for hydrological modelling is from capturing the more intense convective storms in surface runoff estimates. K E Y W O R D Sclimate change, hazard, impact, modelling, pluvial flooding, surface water flooding

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Operational use of a grid-based model for flood forecasting

Cited by 66 publications

References 24 publications

The potential of radar-based ensemble forecasts for flash-flood early warning in the southern Swiss Alps

The potential of radar-based ensemble forecasts for flash-flood early warning in the southern Swiss Alps

Editorial

Investigating potential future changes in surface water flooding hazard and impact

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