Opportunistic Market‐Driven Regional Shifts of Cropping Practices Reduce Food Production Capacity of China

Abstract

China is facing the challenge of feeding a growing population with the declining cropland and increasing shortage of water resources under the changing climate. This study identified that the opportunistic profit‐driven shifts of planting areas and crop species composition have strongly reduced the food production capacity of China. First, the regional cultivation patterns of major crops in China have substantially shifted during the past five decades. Southeast and South China, the regions with abundant water resources and fewer natural disasters, have lost large planting areas of cropland in order to pursue industry and commerce. Meanwhile, Northeast and Northwest China, the regions with low water resources and frequent natural disasters, have witnessed increases in planting areas. These macroshifts have reduced the national food production by 1.02% per year. The lost grain production would have been enough to feed 13 million people. Second, the spatial shifts have been accompanied by major changes in crop species composition, with substantial increases in planting area and production of maize, due to its low water consumption and high economic returns. Consequently, the stockpile of maize in China has accounted for more than half of global stockpile, and the stock to use ratio of maize in China has exceeded the reliable level. Market‐driven regional shifts of cropping practices have resulted in larger irrigation requirements and aggravated environmental stresses. Our results highlighted the need for Chinese food policies to consider the spatial shifts in cultivation, and the planting crop compositions limited by regional water resources and climate change.

Local and teleconnected temperature effects of afforestation and vegetation greening in China

“…Note that it has been suggested that the potential spring irrigation in India would advect more water vapor to southern China [ 56 ]; L in could thus increase more over Southeast China, and the combined increase in spring water vapor would be advected further to Southeast Asia and to the Pacific. Although not considered in our model, irrigation expansion (expansion of the area irrigated and, in some regions, the amount of irrigation water applied) has been reported over cropping areas in Northwest, North and Northeast China over the past decades [ 57 ]; this also may contribute to spring LE enhancement, for example, as well as increasing water vapor content in northern China.…”

Mapping the Dynamics of Winter Wheat in the North China Plain from Dense Landsat Time Series (1999 to 2019)

“…On the other hand, urbanization may also have influenced cropping systems by increasing/decreasing winter wheat planting areas at the expense of other crop types. As urbanization can lead to a shift in cropping systems, for instance, increasingly more farmers plant market-driven crop species to optimize the household income [45]. Hence, in such circumstances, the winter wheat planting areas can be sustained and show an increasing tendency (3.32(±0.25) × 10 7 ha) characterized even by a significant increase in some provinces (Hebei and Shandong).…”

Evolution of the Global Agricultural Trade Network and Policy Implications for China

“…On the one hand, China has maintained agricultural self-sufficiency in grains in most years, even though agriculture needs to compete for scarce land resources with urbanization and industrialization [23], and has lifted 700 million people out of poverty. On the other hand, with economic development, population growth, and diet changes, the challenges China is facing in balancing food supply and demand have increased significantly [24,25]. Diet structures have changed dramatically from plant-based to oil and livestock foods in the last 30 years, and so more agricultural resources have been required.…”