Optimal collecting policy for apheresis platelets in a regional blood center

Abstract

Background and objectives Planning platelet collection and inventory must rely not only on adequate forecasts of transfusion demand but also sophisticated mathematical modeling techniques. This research aims to develop a better demand forecasting model of apheresis platelets and a mathematical programming model to determine the best target amounts of apheresis platelet collection. Materials and methods Time series data of apheresis platelets collected from donors and platelets supplied to hospitals daily in Taipei Blood Center from January 2014 to December 2015 was used to fit a forecasting model which combines a regression‐type model for formulating the deterministic trends and seasonal variation and an autoregressive moving average model (ARMA) for explaining remaining serial correlations. A seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model was also used for benchmarking the prediction performance. A linear programming model was then formulated to solve for the optimal daily target collection volumes that maximize the total social benefits. Results The time series model achieved good predictive power with a mean absolute percentage error less than 10%. The appropriateness of the proposed target collection volumes was also verified by using a simulation model, and the proportion of the total platelets requested by hospitals that can be filled by collected apheresis platelets can increase significantly by using the new policy. Conclusion The methods proposed in this study can be easily implemented to enhance the management efficiency of blood collecting and supplying of a blood center, and to decrease the costs of the blood outdates and shortages.

[Retracted] Prediction of Fish Migration Caused by Ocean Warming Based on SARIMA Model

“…For the prediction of ocean temperature changes, we use the seasonal ARIMA time series model, which can effectively predict the overall seasonal temperature changes in the target sea area in the next 30 years [22][23][24][25][26][27], and then we can determine the future annual average temperature of the target sea area and compare it with the suitable ocean temperature for herring and mackerel; we can get the target migration position of the future fish school.…”

Inventory management of perishable health products: a decision framework with non-financial measures

“…Second, this research develops a decision framework that integrates DES, AHP, and DEA to select the most favourable replenishment policy. In contrast to other studies that use mathematical algorithms (Lin et al , forthcoming), the proposed integration of simulation, AHP, and DEA enables the investigation of relationships between problem's characteristics (e.g. product lifetime or decision-makers' opinions) (Bonney and Jaber, 2014; Moktadir et al , 2019).…”

“…For example, consider blood platelets, which are a standard product in hospitals. Blood platelets can be stored up to seven days before their function is destroyed (Lin et al , forthcoming). An inventory manager aims to lower the inventory level of blood platelets to lower inventory costs and the loss from outdated stock.…”

“…Hospitals often generate replenishment policies by minimising total cost or maximising total profit functions, which may include some or all relevant financial factors (e.g. holding cost, ordering cost) (Lin et al , forthcoming). This financial approach is based on the inventory theory in which cost factors are assumed to be known exactly.…”

Discussion on the recruitment strategy for apheresis platelet donors in Chongqing during a public health emergency*

“…The clinical demand for apheresis platelets has increased accordingly ( 3 , 4 ). However, due to the protracted collection process ( 5 ), specific storage requirements ( 6 ), and short shelf life of apheresis platelets ( 7 ), recruiting donors for this component has become a challenging endeavor, often resulting demand exceeding the available supply ( 8 ). Public health emergencies exacerbate this challenge and disrupt the balance between the supply and demand for apheresis platelets ( 9 ).…”