Optimal End-Game Strategy in Basketball

Abstract

When faced with protecting a three-point lead in the waning seconds of a basketball game, which is a preferable strategy: playing defense or fouling the offense before they can attempt a game-tying shot? Gonzaga University head coach, Mark Few, was faced with such a decision against Michigan State in the semi-finals of the Maui Invitational (November 22, 2005) and elected to play defense. The strategy backfired, as Michigan State's Maurice Ager made a three-point basket at the buzzer to force overtime. (Gonzaga eventually won in triple overtime.) Was this failure to hold the lead at the end of regulation bad luck or bad strategy? Put another way, which strategy (conventional defense or intentionally fouling) maximizes the defensive team's chances of winning the game? Drawing on the Gonzaga/Michigan State game for inspiration, this paper addresses this question and concludes that, contrary to popular belief, intentionally fouling is preferable to playing tight defense.

Examining Choking in Basketball: Effects of Game Outcome and Situational Variables during Last 5 Minutes and Overtimes

“…The results enhanced the importance of a stressful period of basketball games when the players may choke under pressure, and the shooting efficiency during set offenses with high defensive pressure (i.e., 3-point field goals) and free throw success after being fouled are key determinants. Particularly, Annis (2006) emphasized the critical situation of the overtime period that includes accumulated fatigue, stress, more team fouls, and fewer timeouts. During overtimes, the coaches prepare tactics and strategies to take the opponent by surprise, and improve defensive and offensive strategies (Borin, et al, 2005).…”

“…These considerations suggest that game criticality should be a contextual variable of major interest in basketball (Kozar, Whitfield, Lord, & Mechikoff, 1993;Bar-Eli & Tractinsky, 2000;Navarro, Lorenzo, Gómez, & Sampaio, 2009). Accordingly, Annis (2006) suggested the importance of teams' performance and end-game strategy during the final 5 min. and overtimes in close basketball games with a 1-, 2-, or 3-point difference.…”

50 years of OR in sport

“…Other sports to be analysed include: American Football (Brimberg et al, 1999)-where to place 'punt returners'; basketball (Annis, 2006)-when to foul; volleyball (Lee and Chin, 2004)-whether to serve when there is a choice; cycling (Scarf and Grehan, 2005)-which route to choose; yachting (Golding, 2002)-route choice again; pentathlon (Ladany, 1975b)-optimizing training schedules; swimming (Nowak et al, 2006)-team selection; curling (Kostuk et al, 2001)-when to be cautious, when aggressive; and skating (Kuper and Sterken, 2004)-choice of clothing.…”

Evaluating NBA end-of-game decision-making

“…The tactic has 247 been heavily debated, but analyses and studies on the 248 topic tend to be heuristic in nature (Annis, 2006).…”