2019
DOI: 10.3233/jsa-180231
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Evaluating NBA end-of-game decision-making

Abstract: Abstract. This paper introduces a probabilistic method to evaluate the tactical decisions players and coaches make at the end of NBA games. For the purposes of this research, these decisions include whether to shoot a two-point or three-point field goal for the offensive team and whether to intentionally foul for the defensive team. With a win probability model built using logistic regression and player statistics, the optimal decision for both teams in a given possession is found. The End-of-game Tactics Metr… Show more

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Cited by 7 publications
(10 citation statements)
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“…Huyghe also pointed out that for a better understanding of the NBA game baseline approach and how it needs to be played, it's indeed crucial to be familiar with the components of the NBA basketball court [8]. Even though it's not as crucial for spectators, it might be helpful to understand whenever people refer to the lane, the paint, the ten-second line, or the baseline [8,10]. Such terminologies and court features are essential to understanding the NBA game of Basketball and how it has been performed.…”
Section: Stadium and Baseline Methodsmentioning
confidence: 99%
See 1 more Smart Citation
“…Huyghe also pointed out that for a better understanding of the NBA game baseline approach and how it needs to be played, it's indeed crucial to be familiar with the components of the NBA basketball court [8]. Even though it's not as crucial for spectators, it might be helpful to understand whenever people refer to the lane, the paint, the ten-second line, or the baseline [8,10]. Such terminologies and court features are essential to understanding the NBA game of Basketball and how it has been performed.…”
Section: Stadium and Baseline Methodsmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…While always watching these activities on television, the experience of the games has changed. The vitality and improvisation of a high-pressure game together in a packed stadium seem to have been absent from the NBA for a while [10]. What with last year's playoffs currently happening in a crowd-less bubble at Disney World and the majority of the 2020-21 season opener in arenas that occurred empty or massively diminished in volume?…”
Section: Issues Linked With Host Spacesmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Recent work has also explored mechanisms that facilitate the analysis of the decisions players and coaches make in a given match (Kaya 2014;Bar-Eli and Tractinsky 2000). Some have tried to analyze the efficiency and optimality of decisions across the game (Goldman and Rao 2011;Wang et al 2018), while others have focused on the decisions made in the final minutes of the game, when they are most critical (McFarlane 2018). Also, attempts were made to model strategic in-game interactions in order to simulate and analyze counterfactual scenarios (Sandholtz and Bornn 2018) and to understand the interplay in dynamic space creation between offense and defense (Lamas et al 2015).…”
Section: Prediction and Analysis In Basketballmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…There has been little research in the field of predictive sports game outcome. One notable exception is McFarlane's [22] paper on predicting the outcome of Basketball games. But it is limited to only the last 3 minutes of the game.…”
Section: Game Outcome Researchmentioning
confidence: 99%