Optimization of the issuance of evacuation orders under evolving hurricane conditions

Yi, Wenqi; Nozick, Linda K.; Davidson, Rachel A.; Blanton, Brian; Colle, Brian A.

doi:10.1016/j.trb.2016.10.008

Cited by 46 publications

(16 citation statements)

References 78 publications

(88 reference statements)

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…These findings indicated that the Government's information release mechanism before the arrival of a typhoon can play an important role in the evacuation process. Previous studies have shown that sending warnings judiciously (scientific information release mechanism) could help evacuation efficiency and reduce the cost of congestion in evacuation [45,46]. Thus, effective communication to people in hazardous areas in the process of evacuation can guide and promote the evacuation strategy of the evacuated groups.…”

Section: Impact On Cost Reduction In Evacuation Process Due To Governmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evacuate or Stay? A Typhoon Evacuation Decision Model in China Based on the Evolutionary Game Theory in Complex Networks

Sun

Zhang

2020

IJERPH

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The Chinese Government has played an important role in organizing the evacuation of typhoon disasters, and in-depth analysis of individual behavioral decisions is a prerequisite for adopting an effective emergency organization plan. Existing evacuation plans only consider how the Government issues the early warning and organizes the mandatory evacuation, but does not formulate effective policies to improve the efficiency of self-evacuation of evacuees and lacks the understanding of individual evacuation decision-making. Using game-based theory in a small-world network context, we build an evolutionary game model of evacuation decision diffusion between evacuees in the context of a complex network. The model simulates the effects of guaranteeing the evacuation order and providing material supplies on the evacuation decision diffusion in a small-world network in China. The results showed that various levels of policy-implementation led to different rates of evacuation. As the cost-reduction of the evacuation process increased, the evacuation response rate in the social system increased. In contrast, as the rate of reducing the non-evacuation cost decreased or the cost-reduction rate of non-evacuation increased, the evacuation response rate in the social system decreased. The study findings provided insights on emergency planning and the effectiveness of their implementation in social networks, which can be used to improve evacuation policy.

show abstract

Section: Impact On Cost Reduction In Evacuation Process Due To Governmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evacuate or Stay? A Typhoon Evacuation Decision Model in China Based on the Evolutionary Game Theory in Complex Networks

Sun

Zhang

2020

IJERPH

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…(5). Predicted changes in d t+k|t and C t+k|t over time are generally determined by evolving dynamics of routing environment [31], which is shown as follow:…”

Section: Mathematical Descriptionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Thanks to the booming computer science fields, many types of researches for natural disasters and short-term traffic flow forecasting spring up, which makes some changes become predictable more or less in routing environment, e.g., typhoons [30], [31], earthquakes and the spatial-temporal evolution prediction of traffic congestion [32]. However, the researches of path planning based on the dynamic prediction of routing environment emerge promptly.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Methodology of Timing Co-Evolutionary Path Optimization for Accident Emergency Rescue Considering Future Environmental Uncertainty

Wen

Duan

et al. 2019

IEEE Access

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The severe impact of traffic accidents, along with a large number of deaths and disabilities, necessitates further improvements in rescue path optimization. To make the emergency rescue more efficient and furthermore ensure health care in life-saving and mitigating traffic congestion as soon as possible, a methodology for rescue vehicle path optimization, timing co-evolutionary path optimization (TCEPO), is proposed to optimize the rescue path. Distinguishing from conventional online re-optimization (OLRO) and co-evolutionary path optimization (CEPO), in TCEPO, each optimization process co-evolves with future traffic environment that keeps changing over time, and the best path will be modified timely based on the predicted routing environmental dynamics (PRED) and recent traffic data. Besides, for better computation efficiency, this research reports an improved ripple spreading algorithm (RSA) as a realization of TCEPO to resolve the optimality problem. The modeling and solutions of TCEPO are discussed in detail to illustrate the applications in emergency rescue path optimization. In order to compare the performance of three methods (OLRO, CEPO and TCEPO), the same optimization tasks and scenarios are presented, and numerical simulation is carried out 100 times. Experimental results clearly prove that the proposed TCEPO possesses stronger robustness and is about 17.65% to 40.02% shorter than CEPO, as well as about 26.34% to 38.47% shorter than OLRO in terms of the travelling time under the PRED with various uncertainties. These advantages have a great impact on raising efficiency and reliability of emergency rescue, which can help rescue vehicles reach the destination as quickly as possible and save more lives.

show abstract

“…In general, how to systematically assign disaster victims into road network is the main body of making an evacuation plan, which could directly influence the evacuation efficiency and even the social stability in the disaster-affected areas. The dynamic traffic assignment (DTA) models have been utilized as useful tools for making evacuation plans [ 4 – 8 ], the theories of which can be roughly summarized as analytical models and simulation models. However, there are some obvious disadvantages for those models More specifically, most of the analytical models cannot reflect traffic realities well and the model solutions are difficult to caculatewhen a large-size or even middle-size road network is considered [ 9 – 12 ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Optimizing evacuation efficiency under emergency with consideration of social fairness based on a cell transmission model

2018

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Traffic assignment and management objectives are considered as two significant parts in developing the emergency evacuation plan, which can directly influence the evacuation performance and efficiency. From the perspective of disaster response operators, the evacuation objective frequently is to minimize the total evacuation time to reduce losses, which may lead to an unreasonable and unfair phenomenon where people in highest risk areas may be forced to sacrifice their priorities of evacuation to improve the system evacuation efficiency. In this paper, considering both efficiency and social fairness in emergency evacuation, a weight function consisting of risk evaluation index as variable and the emphasis degree of managers on social fairness principle as coefficient was initially proposed and embedded in system optimal (SO) objective function. Combining the weight function and other constraints based on an extended cell transmission model (CTM), the linear program (LP) model was established to realize the simulation of dynamic traffic assignment in emergency evacuation. Employing this model, the impact of the management strategy of balancing both efficiency and social fairness on evacuation results was studied in the “Tianjin Explosions” case. In the end, the conclusion of “balancing social fairness is valuable during evacuation” was obtained.

show abstract

Optimization of the issuance of evacuation orders under evolving hurricane conditions

Abstract: This paper develops a bi-level programming model to optimize the issuance of evacuation orders with explicit consideration of (i) the highly uncertain evolution of the

Cited by 46 publications

References 78 publications

Evacuate or Stay? A Typhoon Evacuation Decision Model in China Based on the Evolutionary Game Theory in Complex Networks

Evacuate or Stay? A Typhoon Evacuation Decision Model in China Based on the Evolutionary Game Theory in Complex Networks

A Methodology of Timing Co-Evolutionary Path Optimization for Accident Emergency Rescue Considering Future Environmental Uncertainty

Optimizing evacuation efficiency under emergency with consideration of social fairness based on a cell transmission model

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About