Optimized Lockdown Strategies for Curbing the Spread of COVID-19: A South African Case Study

Olivier, Laurentz Eugene; Botha, Stefan; Craig, I.K.

doi:10.1109/access.2020.3037415

Cited by 24 publications

(28 citation statements)

References 27 publications

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“…Although there is so far no gold standard for assessing the accuracy of the model parameters, the values of the obtained parameters are in good agreement with the estimates given by [4, 27, 28]. The protection rate is expected to remain very close to zero since there is currently no vaccine against COVID-19 [20]. It can be seen from table 1 that Tunisia shows the highest protection rates, which reflects the increase of people infected with the new coronavirus after the opening of the country’s borders.…”

Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 66%

“…In this work, the SEIQRDP epidemiological model with seven different components, proposed by [2] is used. The model is an adaptation of the classic SEIR model [18,19], widely used to study the COVID-19 pandemic in many countries with variations in components and parameters for adaptations to regions and study period [16,[19][20][21][22][23]]. The present model considers the effect of quarantine adopted by many countries as an effective means of preventing the spread.…”

Section: Seiqrdp Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Mathematical Modeling of COVID-19 Pandemic in the African Continent

Aries

Ounis

2020

Preprint

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The present work aims to give a contribution to the understanding of the highly infectious pandemic caused by the COVID-19 in the African continent. The study focuses on the modelling and the forecasting of COVID-19 spread in the most affected African continent, namely: Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Egypt and South Africa and for the sake of comparison two of the most affected European country are also considered, namely: France and Italy. To this end, an epidemiological SEIQRDP model is presented, which is an adaptation of the classic SIR model widely used in mathematical epidemiology. In order to better coincide with the preventive measures taken by the governments to deal with the spread of COVID-19, this model considers the quarantine. For the identification of the models parameters, official data of the pandemic up to August 1st, 2020 are considered. The results show that the number of infections due to the use of quarantine is expected to be very low provided the isolation is effective. However, it is increasing in some countries with the early lifting of containment. Finally, the information provided by the SEIQRDP model could help to establish a realistic assessment of the short-term pandemic situation. Moreover, this will help maintain the most appropriate and necessary public health measures after the lockdown lifting.

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Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 66%

Section: Seiqrdp Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mathematical Modeling of COVID-19 Pandemic in the African Continent

Aries

Ounis

2020

Preprint

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“…However, this general consensus does not seem to apply to the rate of transmission { β }, where current available data reveals different values for different countries in different points in time. Indeed, some authors (Olivier and Craig, 2020) have proposed that the value of the rate of transmission reaches a peak at the beginning of the pandemic wave, and gradually decreases following an exponential decay function, unless interrupted by lockdown periods, which force β = 0. We have decided to provide a detailed study for the interaction of this parameter and its variation over time with the lockdown optimization task.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Interestingly, there are few instances in recent literature that have used mathematical optimization methods to compare different interventions. One of the most relevant studies that developed a model to evaluate the spread of COVID-19 in South Africa under different policy scenarios is the one by Olivier et al (2020). The scenarios analyzed how to flat-ten the curve to a level that the healthcare system could cope with, how to balance lives and livelihoods, and what impact the compliance of the population to the lockdown measures had on the spread of COVID-19.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…While most SEIR-based works choose a constant rate based on previous literature, figures 4 and 5 show evidence of a non-constant behavior. The introduction of an exponential decay-based ( β ) modelling by Olivier et al (2020) inspired the 4 scenarios that will be proposed in a later section. While our findings focus on the particular case of the ES-based optimizer, the results are of relevance for all SEIR-based optimization methods.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Dynamic versus Continuous Interventions: Optimizing Lockdown Policies for COVID-19

Akinci

Fdez

Peña-Tapia

et al. 2021

Preprint

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In the context of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, while millions of people await the administration of a vaccine, social distancing remains the leading approach towards the effect commonly known as "flattening the curve" of infections. Over the last year, governmental administrations throughout the globe have implemented various lockdown policies in hopes of slowing down the transmission of the disease. However, the current lack of consensus on when and how these policies should be implemented reflects the need for further studies regarding these questions. In this paper, we tackle the issue of lockdown policy management, in particular in terms of lockdown placement (how often, when, and how long these periods should be), in order to minimize the peak of infections in a specific population. We introduce a novel combination of classic mathematical disease modelling using the equation-based SEIR model, and Evolutionary Strategies (ES) for optimizing the peak of infections. The method is evaluated using data collected in different countries, and a particular focus is placed on the study of the effect of specific model parameters on lockdown optimization, such as the transmission rate ($\beta$), of which 4 alternative modelling functions have been proposed and analyzed. Our results indicate that this transmission rate parameter significantly influences the resulting optimal strategies. In particular, the presence of a gradual decay of the rate of transmission during lockdown leads to longer, more sparsely placed confinement periods while an abrupt, instantaneous drop in the amount of contacts per person favors shorter but more frequent lockdowns. Although these results are limited by the scope of action provided by the simplicity of the SEIR model, they suggest that the influence of the evolution of the rate of transmission along the disease should be assessed in further studies with alternative optimization strategies (agent-based) and models (SEIRSHUD).

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Identifying key beliefs underlying QR code check‐in and compliance behaviours in the COVID‐19 pandemic

Mac,

Phipps,

Parkinson

et al. 2024

Health Prom J of Aust

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Issue AddressedThe implementation of quick response (QR) code check‐in compliance behaviour during the COVID‐19 pandemic featured in infection control strategies in several global jurisdictions, but was of particular interest in the Australian context, where it became mandated on a nationwide scale. We aimed to identify the salient beliefs people hold toward complying with the QR code check‐in using a Theory of Planned Behaviour belief‐based framework.MethodsAn elicitation study using open‐ended questions (Queensland; N = 93, Mage = 4.77 years, SD = 13.62 and Victoria; N = 76, Mage = 44.92 years, SD = 11.63) and a prospective correlational study using a two‐wave online survey (Queensland; N = 290, Mage = 38.99, 46.6% female and Victoria; N = 290, Mage = 38.27, 53.4% female) were conducted.ResultsQualitative data were coded through an iterative content analysis, while quantitative data were analysed using linear multiple regression. Behavioural, normative and control beliefs were associated with intention and behaviour in both samples. Variation in beliefs across the states also were observed.ConclusionsAcross both samples, beliefs in positive outcomes consistently exhibited stronger associations with both intention and behaviour than the reported negative outcomes. Distinct differences emerged between the two samples in terms of regression effects.So What?Results indicate individual experience may affect the beliefs which guide behaviour, supporting the potential efficacy of health promotion campaigns tapping into context specific beliefs and experiences if QR code check‐in is to be implemented as an infection control measure in future.

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Optimized Lockdown Strategies for Curbing the Spread of COVID-19: A South African Case Study

Cited by 24 publications

References 27 publications

Mathematical Modeling of COVID-19 Pandemic in the African Continent

Mathematical Modeling of COVID-19 Pandemic in the African Continent

Dynamic versus Continuous Interventions: Optimizing Lockdown Policies for COVID-19

Identifying key beliefs underlying QR code check‐in and compliance behaviours in the COVID‐19 pandemic

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