Optimizing climate model selection for hydrological modeling: A case study in the Maumee River basin using the SWAT

Yuan, Shanshui; Quiring, Steven M.; Kalcic, Margaret; Apostel, Anna; Evenson, Grey R.; Kujawa, Haley

doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.125064

Cited by 21 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 43 publications

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“…These statistics facilitate the determination of how much of the overall RMSE difference in the patterns is attributable to a difference in variance and how much is due to poor pattern correlation of observed to simulated values, based on Equations ( 1) and ( 2) [48]. The plot is widely used to evaluate or to track changes in the performance of complex models such as geophysical phenomena [23,[49][50][51].…”

Section: Assessment Of Gcmsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of Climate Change on the Precipitation and Streamflow Regimes in Equatorial Regions: Guayas River Basin

Ilbay-Yupa

Ilbay

Zubieta

et al. 2021

Water

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The effects of climate change projected for 2050 to 2079 relative to the 1968–2014 reference period were evaluated using 39 CMIP5 models under the RCP8.5 emissions scenario in the Guayas River basin. The monthly normalized precipitation index (SPI) was used in this study to assess the impact of climate change for wet events and droughts from a meteorological perspective. The GR2M model was used to project changes in the streamflow of the Daule River. The climate projection was based on the four rigorously selected models to represent the climate of the study area. On average, an increase in temperature (~2 °C) and precipitation (~6%) is expected. A 7% increase in precipitation would result in a 10% increase in streamflow for flood periods, while an 8% decrease in precipitation could result in approximately a 60% reduction in flow for dry periods. The analysis of droughts shows that they will be more frequent and prolonged in the highlands (Andes) and the middle part of the basin. In the future, wet periods will be less frequent but of greater duration and intensity on the Ecuadorian coast. These results point to future problems such as water deficit in the dry season but also increased streamflow for floods during the wet season. This information should be taken into account in designing strategies for adaptation to climate change.

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Section: Assessment Of Gcmsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of Climate Change on the Precipitation and Streamflow Regimes in Equatorial Regions: Guayas River Basin

Ilbay-Yupa

Ilbay

Zubieta

et al. 2021

Water

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“…A climate model should be able to reproduce behavior of hydrology-relevant parameters (e.g., precipitation and temperature) in the past for the studied watershed (Yuan et al 2020). On the other hand, the selection of only the 'best' performance model may omit possible future scenarios (Lutz et al 2016).…”

Section: Evaluation Of Rcmsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Water resources of the Desna river basin under future climate

Osypov

Speka

Chyhareva

et al. 2021

Journal of Water and Climate Change

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Climate change impact on water resources has been observing in Ukraine since the end of the 20th century. For now, only large-scale climate impact studies cover Ukraine territory, having low credibility for a specific catchment. This study aims to calculate future changes in river discharge, water flow components, and soil water within the Desna basin and evaluate vulnerability trends on this basis. The framework assembles the process-based SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model and eight high-resolution regional climate models (RCMs) driven by RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios. The climate models are provided by the Euro-CORDEX initiative and based on three RCMs (RCA4, HIRHAM5, and RACMO22E) forced by five general circulation models (CNRM-CM5, EC-EARTH, IPSL-CM5A-MR, HadGEM2-ES, and MPI-ESM-LR). The results preferably show a moderate increase in the annual discharge till the end of the 21st century. The intra-annual changes of water balance components negatively affect the vegetation period because of higher dryness and temperature stress but reduce flood risk, diffuse pollution, and water erosion in the far future. In the river basin management plan, the highest attention should be paid to adaptive strategies in agriculture because of possible water deficit in the vegetation season under future climate scenarios.

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“…Climate change is expected to impact the precipitation and temperature by the end of the 21 st century, the changes in precipitation and temperature may substantially effect the regional and global hydrological cycle, quantifying the response of runoff of climate change is directly associated with water resources management. Vaghef et al 2019;Anjum et al 2019;Yuan et al 2020). Global climate models (GCMs) are primary tools for providing the future climate variables in changing environment, which can be used to simulated the general circulation of the earth's atmosphere, which can provide the credible information from past to future meteorological data (Zhang et al 2016).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The ANOVA technique has fewer assumptions as compared to other uncertainty analysis methods, such as Bayesian methods and Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GULE) (Vaghef et al 2019). In recently hydrological application, the assessment framework based on ANOVA has been used to investigated the individual and interaction uncertainty from different sources (Chawla et al 2018;Qi et al 2016;Kujawa et al 2020;Keller et al 2019;. However, the different kinds of uncertainty sources have not been estimated equally in previous researches.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, the different kinds of uncertainty sources have not been estimated equally in previous researches. They mainly aim on decomposition the GCMs, emission scenarios, downscaling method, hydrological model structure and parameter for simulation process (Kujawa et al 2020;Shi et al 2020;Keller et al 2019). Moreover, to investigate the role of the internal variability in the overall climate change uncertainty can provide more useful information to uncertainty estimating of simulation process and establish more comprehensive framework of uncertainty analysis (Liu et al 2012;Xue et al 2014;Yen et al 2014;Schindler et al 2015;Steinschneider et al 2015;Nerantzaki et al 2020).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Estimating the role of climate internal variability and source of uncertainties in hydrological climate-impact projections

Cai

Liu

Zhu

et al. 2021

Preprint

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Hydrological climate-impact projections in future are limited by large uncertainties from various sources. Therefore, this study aimed to explore and estimate the sources of uncertainties involved in climate changing impacted assessment in a representative watershed of Northeastern China. Moreover, recent researches indicated that the climate internal variability (CIV) plays an important role in various of hydrological climate-impact projections. Six downscaled Global climate models (GCMs) under two emission scenarios and a calibrate Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model were used to obtain hydrological projections in future periods. The CIV and signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) are investigated to analyze the the role of internal variability in hydrological projections. The results shows that the internal variability shows a considerable influence on hydrological projections, which need be partitioned and quantified particularly. Moreover, it worth noting the CIV can propagate from precipitation and ET to runoff projections through the hydrological simulation process. In order to partition the CIV and sources of uncertainties, the uncertainty decomposed frameworks based on analysis of variance (ANOVA) are established. The results demonstrate that the CIV and GCMs are the dominate contributors of runoff in rainy season. In contrast, the CIV and SWAT model parameter sets provided obvious uncertainty to runoff in January to May and October to December. The findings of this study advised that the uncertainty is complex in hydrological simulation process hence, it is meaning and necessary to estimate the uncertainty in climate simulation process, the uncertainty analysis results can provide effectively efforts to reduce uncertainty and then give some positive suggestions to stakeholders for adaption countermeasure under climate change.

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Optimizing climate model selection for hydrological modeling: A case study in the Maumee River basin using the SWAT

Cited by 21 publications

References 43 publications

Impacts of Climate Change on the Precipitation and Streamflow Regimes in Equatorial Regions: Guayas River Basin

Impacts of Climate Change on the Precipitation and Streamflow Regimes in Equatorial Regions: Guayas River Basin

Water resources of the Desna river basin under future climate

Estimating the role of climate internal variability and source of uncertainties in hydrological climate-impact projections

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