Organized Labor in the Electorate, 1960-1988

Abstract

This paper examines the union effect on vote choice and turnout in presidential elections from 1960 to 1988. It shows that union household status had a significant effect on vote choice in the last four presidential elections, including the widely reported debacle of 1984. Declining membership and other political-economic factors may explain organized labor's apparent political weakness, but these explanations have very different implications for our thinking about labor politics than the argument that leaders have diminishing impact on members' voting decisions. Surprisingly, union status does not have a significant impact on tumout; Verba, Nie, and Kim's "group-based political mobilization" hypothesis does not hold up well in the American context.

The “Labor '96 Campaign”

“…Delaney et al (1988) found that union members were more likely to vote, and that COPE endorsements stimulated member turnout in congressional elections. Juravich and Shergold (1988) found no relationship between the receipt of union literature and union member turnout for the 1984 presidential race, while Sousa (1993) found a union effect on turnout for only two of eight presidential elections between 1960 and 1988.…”

“…Since Masters and Delaney's (1987) review, a handful of articles have been published that begin to address the relationship between union outreach strategy and member voting behavior. One consistent finding is that union members are more likely than nonmembers to prefer labor-endorsed candidates (Juravich and Shergold 1988;Delaney et al 1990;Hojnacki and Baum 1992;Sousa 1993). Moreover, this choice is correlated with union outreach and Committee on Political Education (COPE) endorsements (Juravich and Shergold 1988;Delaney et al 1990;Hojnacki and Baum 1992).…”

Competing Interest Groups and Union Members' Voting

“…The first focuses on differences between union members and the broader electorate. Research has established a pattern of union bloc voting (Sousa, 1993). In addition, some research has shown a noticeable union-nonunion gap in voter turnout (e.g., Uhlaner, 1989).…”

“…Research reveals that unions have had considerable political influence (Sheppard and Masters, 1959;Wolfe, 1969;Sousa, 1993;Greenstone, 1997). However, rank-and-file members are not politically homogeneous (Blume, 1970).…”

Using members’ dues for political purposes: The “paycheck protection” movement

“…In the nine presidential elections since 1960 in which the AFL-CIO and most unions endorsed one candidate, a majority of union members have voted for that candidate every time (Table 1).t In two recent elections, the union-endorsed presidential candidate received 62.6 (1988) and 68.0 (1996) percent of the union member vote (Sousa, 1993;"Union Effort," 1996).…”