Out of the net: An agent-based model to study human movements influence on local-scale malaria transmission

Pizzitutti, Francesco; Pan, William; Feingold, Beth J.; Zaitchik, B. F.; Álvarez, Carlos; Mena, Carlos F.

doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0193493

Cited by 23 publications

(21 citation statements)

References 66 publications

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“…ABM studies the dynamics of complex systems by simulating an array of heterogeneous individuals that make decisions, interact with each other, and learn from their experiences and the environment. The method is widely used to analyze epidemics [14][15][16][17]. Its advantage is in analyzing the factors that influence the spread of infectious diseases and the actions of individual actors [18].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Risk perception and behavioral change during epidemics: Comparing models of individual and collective learning

et al. 2020

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Modern societies are exposed to a myriad of risks ranging from disease to natural hazards and technological disruptions. Exploring how the awareness of risk spreads and how it triggers a diffusion of coping strategies is prominent in the research agenda of various domains. It requires a deep understanding of how individuals perceive risks and communicate about the effectiveness of protective measures, highlighting learning and social interaction as the core mechanisms driving such processes. Methodological approaches that range from purely physics-based diffusion models to data-driven environmental methods rely on agentbased modeling to accommodate context-dependent learning and social interactions in a diffusion process. Mixing agent-based modeling with data-driven machine learning has become popularity. However, little attention has been paid to the role of intelligent learning in risk appraisal and protective decisions, whether used in an individual or a collective process. The differences between collective learning and individual learning have not been sufficiently explored in diffusion modeling in general and in agent-based models of socioenvironmental systems in particular. To address this research gap, we explored the implications of intelligent learning on the gradient from individual to collective learning, using an agent-based model enhanced by machine learning. Our simulation experiments showed that individual intelligent judgement about risks and the selection of coping strategies by groups with majority votes were outperformed by leader-based groups and even individuals deciding alone. Social interactions appeared essential for both individual learning and group learning. The choice of how to represent social learning in an agent-based model could be driven by existing cultural and social norms prevalent in a modeled society.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Risk perception and behavioral change during epidemics: Comparing models of individual and collective learning

et al. 2020

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“…Here, we build on existing theoretical methods for the contribution of relapses to P. vivax transmission 24 – 29 , and develop a new, detailed individual-based simulation model of P. vivax transmission calibrated to data from many epidemiological studies from PNG and the Solomon Islands. Using this simulation model we investigate the impact of current and future malaria control interventions on P. vivax , and the potential impact of future treatment strategies with primaquine or tafenoquine.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mathematical modelling of the impact of expanding levels of malaria control interventions on Plasmodium vivax

et al. 2018

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Plasmodium vivax poses unique challenges for malaria control and elimination, notably the potential for relapses to maintain transmission in the face of drug-based treatment and vector control strategies. We developed an individual-based mathematical model of P. vivax transmission calibrated to epidemiological data from Papua New Guinea (PNG). In many settings in PNG, increasing bed net coverage is predicted to reduce transmission to less than 0.1% prevalence by light microscopy, however there is substantial risk of rebounds in transmission if interventions are removed prematurely. In several high transmission settings, model simulations predict that combinations of existing interventions are not sufficient to interrupt P. vivax transmission. This analysis highlights the potential options for the future of P. vivax control: maintaining existing public health gains by keeping transmission suppressed through indefinite distribution of interventions; or continued development of strategies based on existing and new interventions to push for further reduction and towards elimination.

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“…The growing body of data arising from those 23 studies not only builds the evidence base required to accelerate the development process, 24 but it also provides an excellent foundation for developing models of host-seeking 25 behavior and experimentally validate the new tools at earlier stages. This paper 26 describes one such model: a fine-grained agent-based approach for modelling how indoor 27 insecticide treatments deployed as residues on bed nets affect the behavior and survival 28 of mosquitoes. 29 To capture the complex interactions between mosquitoes and a human host lying 30 beneath an insecticide-treated bed net, individual mosquito flight paths and local 31 interactions within the indoor environment are required.…”

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confidence: 99%

“…The influence of human movement on malaria transmission was studied with an 56 agent-based model in [27] who found that the spatial locations of malaria hotspots was 57 strongly influenced by human movement.…”

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confidence: 99%

A minimal 3D model of mosquito flight behavior around the human baited bed net

Jones

Murray

McCall

2020

Preprint

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Advances in digitized video-tracking and behavioral analysis have enabled accurate recording and quantification of mosquito flight and host-seeking behaviors, enabling development of Individual (agent) Based Models at much finer spatial scales than previously possible. We used such quantified behavioral parameters to create a novel virtual testing model, capable of accurately simulating indoor flight behavior by a virtual population of host-seeking mosquitoes as it interacts with and responds to simulated stimuli from a human-occupied bed net. We describe the model, including base mosquito behavior, state transitions, environmental representation and host stimulus representation. In the absence of a bed net and human bait, flight distribution of the model population is relatively uniform in the arena. Introducing an unbaited net induces a change in distribution due to landing events on the net surface, predominantly occurring on the sides and edges of the net. Presence of simulated human baited net strongly impacted flight distribution patterns, exploratory foraging, the number and distribution of net landing sites, depending on the bait orientation. As recorded in live mosquito experiments, contact with baited nets (a measure of exposure to the lethal insecticide) occurred predominantly on the top surface of the net. Number of net contacts and height of contacts decreased with increasing attractant dispersal noise. Results generated by the model are an accurate representation of actual mosquito behavior recorded at and around a human-occupied bed net in untreated and insecticide treated nets. In addition to providing insights into host-seeking behavior of endophilic vectors, this fine-grained model is highly flexible and has significant potential for in silico screening of novel bed net designs, accelerating the deployment of new and more effective tools for protecting against malaria in sub-Saharan Africa.

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Out of the net: An agent-based model to study human movements influence on local-scale malaria transmission

Cited by 23 publications

References 66 publications

Risk perception and behavioral change during epidemics: Comparing models of individual and collective learning

Risk perception and behavioral change during epidemics: Comparing models of individual and collective learning

Mathematical modelling of the impact of expanding levels of malaria control interventions on Plasmodium vivax

A minimal 3D model of mosquito flight behavior around the human baited bed net

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