Outbreak and control of Foot and Mouth Disease within and across adjacent districts—A mathematical perspective

Sseguya, Ivan; Mugisha, Johnny; Nannyonga, Betty

doi:10.1016/j.rico.2021.100074

Cited by 3 publications

(5 citation statements)

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“…number of heads, number of born alive), animal movements, models are oversimplified. The most common simplification is to restrict the epidemiological models to a single species (Chanchaidechachai et al, 2021; Sseguya et al, 2022). Despite the different applications and efforts in modeling FMD, questions on measuring the epidemic trajectory and epidemic control strategies while considering heterogeneous transmission dynamics among the different susceptible species coexisting on the same farms remain outstanding (Seymour et al, 2022).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Mathematical models have been widely used to investigate epidemic propagation, although major technical and computation advancements have been achieved, in most cases models are simplified because of computational cost and/or lack of details about herd structure (e.g., number of heads, number of born alive) and animal movements. The most common simplification is to restrict the epidemiological models to a single species (Chanchaidechachai et al, 2021; Sseguya et al, 2022). Despite the different applications and efforts in modeling FMD, questions on measuring the epidemic trajectory and epidemic control strategies while considering heterogeneous transmission dynamics among the different susceptible species coexisting on the same farms remain outstanding (Seymour et al, 2022).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Despite significant technical and computational advancements, simplifications of complex dynamics are often necessary due to computational costs or the lack of detailed population data, such as herd structure (e.g., number of individuals, number of animals born alive) and animal movements (17). A common simplification in modeling involves restricting the dynamics to a single species (4,19,20). Despite the varied applications and efforts in modeling FMD, outstanding questions persist regarding the measurement of epidemic trajectories and control strategies, particularly given the heterogeneous transmission dynamics among different susceptible species coexisting on the same premises (8,18).Here, we develop a multihost, single-pathogen, multiscale model designed to capture the dynamics of FMD transmission patterns across different host species.…”

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confidence: 99%

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Modeling foot-and-mouth disease dissemination in Brazil and evaluating the effectiveness of control measures

Cárdenas

Lopes

Machado

2022

Preprint

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Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) infects multiple food-animal species, thus capable of disseminating among ungulate species with distinct transmission rates. Here present a multilevel compartmental stochastic model, taking into account births and deaths and explicit representation of species-specific transmission dynamics. The model considered two major modes of dissemination, between-farm animal and spatial transmission. Our model outcomes are the number of secondary infected animals and farms, spatial dissemination distances, and effectiveness of depopulation and vaccination along with surveillance and movement restrictions. We demonstrated that after 20 days of FMD dissemination, the median number of infected farms was 8 (IQR: 3-22), of which 7 (IQR: 3-22) were bovine, 3 (IQR: 1-6) swine farms, and 1 (IQR: 1-1) small ruminants. We demonstrate that animal movement dominated dissemination in the first days of epidemics, while at ten days the spatial transmission dominated bovine infections, whilst between-farm led to most swine infections. We have also shown the median distances between seeded and secondary infections was 5.77 km (IQR: 1-10.29 km), with some long-range dissemination at 695.40 km. We estimated that depopulating 12 and vaccinating 15,000 farms per day faded out 98.3% of the epidemics, however, was insufficient to contain large-scale epidemics (> 248 infected farms). The estimated effectiveness of a baseline control scenario eliminated 93.4% of the epidemics with a median of 9 (IQR: 3-23, max: 221) infected farms. Our results demonstrated that the depopulation alone against epidemics with more than 74 infected farms had limited success, stamping out less than 80% of simulations. The developed transmission model allows for cross-species transmission to be considered in FMD policy-making, and the software implementation facilitates the adaption of scientific-based support to FMD planning and response throughout other Brazilian states.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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confidence: 99%

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Modeling foot-and-mouth disease dissemination in Brazil and evaluating the effectiveness of control measures

Cárdenas

Lopes

Machado

2022

Preprint

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“…Mathematical models have been widely used to describe the problem of infectious diseases spread (Fahcruddin, 2019). Research on the spread of FMD has been carried out by several researchers such as (Mushayabasa et al, 2011), (Belayneh et al, 2020), (Gashirai et al, 2020), (Chanchaidechachai et al, 2021), and (Sseguya et al, 2021). (Mushayabasa et al, 2011) have studied the spread of FMD by paying attention the bilinear incidence rate.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Furthermore, (Chanchaidechachai et al, 2021) conducted a study on the spread of FMD using a spatial model in Thailand. Next, (Sseguya et al, 2022) conducted research on the spread of FMD in two locations that were close to each other. The four studies used the incidence rate form in formulating mathematical models.…”

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confidence: 99%

Mathematical Modeling of Foot and Mouth Disease Spread on Livestock using Saturated Incidence Rate

Fahcruddin¹,

Harianto

Fitrial³

2023

JTAM

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Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) is an acute infectious disease that attacks livestock, thus threatening the availability of food and the husbandry industry. This paper discusses the formulation of a mathematical model for the spread of FMD in livestock with a saturated incidence rate. The research method used is quantitative mathematical modeling with simulation, with stages including problem identification, determining assumptions, model formulation, analysis and model simulation. The discussion results obtained two equilibrium points, namely the non-endemic equilibrium point and the endemic equilibrium point, and then analyzed for stability. Numerical simulation is presented using Runge-Kutta approximation with MATLAB. Furthermore, after a sensitivity analysis, the parameters that greatly influenced the spread of FMD were direct or indirect contact (which led to the entry of the FMD virus) and the supporting capacity of livestock. Then the most influential parameter in reducing the spread of FMD is the application of culling on exposed animals and infected animals. The FMD modeling is a form of mathematical application to simulate the spread of disease on livestock.

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Modeling foot-and-mouth disease dissemination in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil and evaluating the effectiveness of control measures

Cardenas,

Lopes,

Machado

et al. 2024

Front. Vet. Sci.

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IntroductionFoot-and-mouth disease (FMD) affects multiple food-animal species and spreads rapidly among ungulate populations, posing significant challenges for disease control. Understanding the dynamics of FMD transmission and evaluating the effectiveness of control measures are critical for mitigating its impact. This study introduces a multiscale compartmental stochastic model to simulate FMD spread and assess countermeasures.MethodsWe developed a model that integrates population dynamics, including births, deaths, and species-specific transmission dynamics, at both the between-farm and within-farm levels. Four scenarios were created to evaluate different control strategies: the base scenario included vaccinating 20 farms and depopulating four infected farms, while alternative scenarios increased vaccination and depopulation capacities or omitted vaccination altogether.ResultsOur simulations showed that bovines were the most frequently infected species, followed by swine and small ruminants. After 10 days of initial spread, the number of infected farms ranged from 1 to 123, with 90.12% of simulations resulting in fewer than 50 infected farms. Most secondary spread occurred within a 25 km radius. An early response to control actions significantly reduced the time spent managing outbreaks, and increasing daily depopulation and vaccination capacities further enhanced control efforts.DiscussionEmergency vaccination effectively reduced the magnitude and duration of outbreaks, while increasing depopulation without vaccination also eliminated outbreaks. These findings highlight the importance of rapid response and capacity scaling in controlling FMD outbreaks, providing valuable insights for future decision-making processes in disease management.

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Outbreak and control of Foot and Mouth Disease within and across adjacent districts—A mathematical perspective

Cited by 3 publications

References 28 publications

Modeling foot-and-mouth disease dissemination in Brazil and evaluating the effectiveness of control measures

Modeling foot-and-mouth disease dissemination in Brazil and evaluating the effectiveness of control measures

Mathematical Modeling of Foot and Mouth Disease Spread on Livestock using Saturated Incidence Rate

Modeling foot-and-mouth disease dissemination in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil and evaluating the effectiveness of control measures

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